NFL Week 1 picks against the spread

Los Angeles Rams (-2.5) at Carolina Panthers

Let’s go right into the elephant in the room for this one. Where is Cam Newton going to be health wise in this one? The Panthers backup quarterback is Will Grier, who has talent but is nowhere near NFL ready. They need Cam to be Cam against one of the best defenses in the league. He’s already dealt with a mid-foot sprain in the preseason. He’s also had major shoulder surgery in the offseason.

The Los Angeles Rams, on the other hand, are coming off signing their quarterback Jared Goff to a brand new contract. This Rams team is extremely motivated to show that their poor showing in the Super Bowl was a fluke, and their ready to take the league by storm. They welcome Cooper Kupp back to the lineup, they added veterans Eric Weddle and Clay Matthews, and they have everything to gain with a win in Week 1.

This feels like a lopsided matchup, and we’d pound the Rams here. They aren’t going into this matchup cocky. The Rams just lost the Super Bowl. This is the first game that counts since then. Sean McVay wants to get that taste out of his mouth finally, and he will take no mercy on a Panthers team that is missing some pieces on offense. As long as Christian McCaffrey doesn’t take over the game by himself, we see this as an easy Rams win.

Pick: Rams (-2.5)

Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns (-6.5)

The Tennessee Titans ended last season with nine wins. That is what makes this line crazy right now. The Titans were not an awful team, yet they are giving up close to a touchdown on opening weekend. That has more to do with the Cleveland Browns, who are the most hyped team coming into this season. They added Odell Beckham Jr., Sheldon Richardson and Olivier Vernon to a team that already has Baker Mayfield, Myles Garrett and Jarvin Landry.

The Browns look great on paper, while the Titans look remarkably average. However, we’ve learned in the past that these games are played on paper. Marcus Mariota is playing for his NFL life. Mike Vrabel looks like he is a decent coach. The problem is the offense is missing weapons. The team signed Adam Humphries in the offseason. He joins Corey Davis, Dion Lewis and Derrick Henry as the team’s weapons. It’s not exactly a scary offense.

This is a reluctant pick of the Browns here. We don’t trust head coach Freddie Kitchens, but we trust the Titans ability to score even less. We see this as the Browns winning by a touchdown as they work out the kinks of a team that just went through an overhaul.

Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars

It won’t take long to see one of the best offenses we’ve seen in years take on one of the most talented defenses in the league. The Kansas City Chiefs taking on the Jacksonville Jaguars is like watching a rocket ship take on a mountain and trying to pick a winner. There are two major factors in this matchup, and it’s all on the Jaguars. What do we expect to see from Nick Foles, and can this defense gel to the point of its 2017 highs?

They were still really good last season, ending the season tied for fourth in the NFL in points allowed. However, the Chiefs offense is so good, a good defense isn’t enough to stop them. The Chiefs played five top-ten defenses in 2018, and scored at least 27 points against each of them. That includes putting 30 on the Jaguars. If Jacksonville is going to stay in this contest, they need to score.

Foles is a major upgrade to Blake Bortles, but can he lead an offense of Leonard Fournette and Dede Westbrook? The Chiefs are a much safer bet here, even on the road. They have so many weapons, especially with the addition of Mecole Hardman, it’s hard to bet against them.

Pick: Chiefs (-3.5)

Baltimore Ravens (-7) at Miami Dolphins

This is the matchup you should expect your entire office survivor pool to pick in Week 1. The Miami Dolphins appear to be tanking, but don’t be so sure. We thought the same about the Buffalo Bills last season when they beat the Minnesota Vikings in Week 3. Ironically, the Bills lost to the Baltimore Ravels by 44 points in Week 1 that season.

The Dolphins can take this one of two ways. They can do their best to showcase themselves to try and get better deals here or elsewhere next season, and ignore the result. Their other option is to rally around Ryan Fitzpatrick, who played out of his mind at time last season, gain a real us versus them mentality and actually put up a major team effort in every matchup. They literally just traded away Laremy Tunsil without a real replacement at tackle. They now have to rely on Devante Parker at receiver. There’s a lot to not like.

You have to go Ravens here just because it’s Week 1 and the Dolphins just gutted their team. Also, Brian Flores is coaching for the first time. There’s too much against them that this line could be double digits. Lamar Jackson can ease into his first full season under center.

Pick: Ravens (-7)