NFL Week 1 picks against the spread

Indianapolis Colts at Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5)

The Indianapolis Colts are still in shock after the surprise retirement of Andrew Luck. Jacoby Brissett was just given a contract after Luck’s retirement to show he’s their guy for now. That’s great for him, but how good is it for the Colts? Brissett is still just upside until he’s able to do it on the field. The Colts are very good at almost every other position, with a much better o-line, a deep receiving core and two awesome running backs, but is that enough against the Los Angeles Chargers?

The Chargers were at one point contenders for the number-one seed last season. They’re dealing with their own offseason headlines as running back Melvin Gordon is not in camp. He will likely sit out for most of the season waiting for a new contract. The Chargers will go into this game with Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson taking the brunt of the carries.

Philip Rivers is looking to finally break the ice and make a run in the playoffs, possibly making the first Super Bowl of his career. They could theoretically compete with the Chiefs for a first-round bye once it’s all said and done, but they have to start with a win here. Expect a really competitive matchup, but a few mistakes by Brissett late give the Chargers the backdoor cover.

Pick: Chargers (-6.5)

Cincinnati Bengals at Seattle Seahawks (-9.5)

The Cincinnati Bengals had an… interesting offseason. They took a long time to hire head coach Zac Taylor. Then, it took even longer to hire defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo. They did not get a jump on putting the offseason together, and it shows. The team on paper isn’t great, and it gets even worse with an A.J. Green injury.

The Seahawks, on the other hand, go into this game knowing the team is all in. They just traded peanuts for Jadeveon Clowney. He fills the Seahawks biggest hole on the pass rush. The Seahawks still have some other holes that might come up in later matchups, but it shouldn’t hurt them in this one.

The Bengals just aren’t ready for this type of matchup Week 1. With a brand new coaching staff, an offense limping into this game and a new scheme with lesser pieces on defense, a win is too much to ask for. Now we’re looking at the spread. Is this as much of a mismatch to give the Seahawks a 10-point victory? It seems steep for Week 1, but the Seahawks should be incredibly motivated after the moves of the offseason. This isn’t a stone-cold lock, but go with the Seahawks.

Pick: Seahawks (-9.5)

Detroit Lions (-3) at Arizona Cardinals

This is one of four home underdogs here in Week 1. The Arizona Cardinals still have major holes on both sides of the ball, their missing their best defensive player Patrick Peterson, they have a brand new head coach in Kliff Kingsbury who got fired from a mid-tier college program and they have a rookie quarterback.

The issue here is taste. This writer is not sold on the Detroit Lions at all. Yes, they have Matthew Stafford and Kerryon Johnson on offense. They have Matt Patricia putting in his defense once again. Still, we’re just not sold on this roster.

Call us crazy, but we’re predicting a big Week 1 matchup for Kyler Murray and the Arizona Cardinals. Kingsbury is going to try some outside the box elements of his offense, and he’ll hope the defense just holds on. This isn’t a great strategy week to week, but for the first week of the season against the Lions, it could work. Expect that to make all the talk shows discuss how Murray will be a star and Kingsbury was the right choice as a major overreaction.

Pick: Cardinals (+3)