College football odds: 5 long shot bets that could pay off big in Week 2

There are underdogs, and there are true long shots. Which college footballs teams are worth a look at their long odds in Week 2?

California Golden Bears (+447) at Washington Huskies – Sat, 10:30 p.m.

Going forward, we will start with the team with the shortest of the five underdogs in this article, and this week that team is Justin Wilcox’ Golden Bears. Last week, they not-so-convincingly took down California-Davis 27-13, but they are 60th in Bill Connelly’s SP+ and even higher — 23rd — as a defensive unit. They gave up 13 points last week and an average of 20.4 a year ago, good enough for 22nd in the nation. They return seven defensive starters and could give Jacob Eason and crew a bit of trouble on their home turf.

After opening at +415 on the moneyline and +12 on the spread line, the betting value has only been boosted with Cal a bigger underdog at their current odds (they’re getting 14 points, per Sports Insights). And recent history, courtesy of Killer Sports, tells us that Washington could be a bit shaky with Cal winning last year’s matchup and one of the last two played in Husky Stadium. If the defense can win its battle 92 percent of bettors would be very happy with an outcome in favor of the Bears.

Southern Miss Golden Eagles  (+562) at Mississippi State Bulldogs – Sat, 3:30 p.m.

At a return of 115 more for every $100 laid, Southern Miss looks like a more worthwhile bet against in-state foe Mississippi State. The SEC name is hard for teams to go up against, particularly for a non-power school on the road. However, the Golden Eagles are among the top 10 teams in terms of returning starters, which creates an edge of five such players over the Bulldogs.

In last year’s six-win season, Southern Miss performed admirably against tougher competition, losing by just 11 to Auburn and 3 to a nine-win UAB club. Mississippi State hasn’t been unbeatable when listed as a two-plus touchdown favorite either, as they are here (-16.5). Going back to 2016, they have dropped two such games and have had two others cover against them. Junior signal caller Jack Abraham will be key to a potential upset in Starkville.

Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (+950) at Florida State Seminoles – Sat, 5:00 p.m.

Shifting from Conference-USA to the Sun Belt, we have a Warhawks team coming off an uninspiring 6-6 season. But this team was tested last year with losses to Ole Miss, Texas A&M and Troy, and a nice win over Southern Miss. Through one game, they have a win over a non-major school and a ranking inside the top 100 in SP+. They are 65th offensively behind quarterback Caleb Evans and running back Josh Johnson.

For as much as there is to dive into on the underdog, though, there’s more to the Florida State side of this. Even after moving the game up and changing location (within the state), the Seminoles lost a heartbreaker to Boise State in Week 1. They collapsed in the second half, which Willie Taggart blamed on dehydration. Either way, it was a blow to start what was supposed to be a more promising year. Of course, the ‘Noles are favored by three scores, but UL-Monroe is getting 68 percent of bets on the spread and 50 percent on the moneyline. Connelly’s projection have them covering in a high-scoring — a recipe for an upset of an already disheartened squad.

Nevada Wolf Pack (+1,100) at Oregon Ducks – Sat, 7:30 p.m.

Just like FSU, Oregon emerged from Week 1 with broken hearts around the fan-base and locker room. They basically had the win in hand over Auburn only to lose the lead within the final minute. Now, they have to turn around and host Nevada in the hopes of putting up big points to impress the committee by the end of the year.

Heisman hopeful Justin Herbert can only do so much himself, too. Oregon is dealing with injuries to the wideout spots, which may or may not have impacted their offensive flow against Auburn. The same goes for the offensive line that allowed three sacks on the night. Those question marks are worth noting even for a team that is 50-1 in their last 51 home games as 21-plus favorites. Teams have covered nearly at a 50 percent clip in that same sample, as well, so there is a glimmer of hope. The massive return is enough to justify a bet on a risky team like Nevada in a game like this.

Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners (+1,750) at Baylor Bears – Sat, 4:00 p.m.

If you’re looking to get the most bang for your buck look no further than the Roadrunners. UTSA was a very poor team last season, winning just 3 of 12 games, but they did manage 35 points in the opener — a feat they didn’t accomplish once all of last year. They’ve brought back eight offensive starters and five on defense, and while they’re 118th in offensive SP+ they are a respectable 70th defensively.

Behind Charlie Brewer, Baylor is looking much better than the seven-win team they were in 2018 — there’s no disputing that. But even upcoming teams have their slips, and they bested UTSA by just 17 a year ago. The year before the Roadrunners got the win in Waco. Things happen. We saw it firsthand last week courtesy of Georgia State and at the expense of Tennessee. UTSA, at +25.5, is right around the same line for this week’s matchup. Getting $18 for every $1 feels like stealing at the low cost.