No unranked college football team has upset a ranked opponent in 2019. Will that change in Week 2? We check the CFB Winning Edge win probabilities for the likeliest candidates.
In most respects, Week 1 was extremely exciting. First, it offered a glimpse at the final 126 FBS teams yet to play in games spread across five days. Secondly, there were some very exciting moments: Auburn’s last-minute victory over Oregon in the undisputed Game of the Week, Nevada and Boise State both storming back from double-digit deficits to knock off favored Power Five programs, Mack Brown picking up win No. 1 and placing Will Muschamp on the hot seat in the process, and No. 21 Iowa State surviving an upset bid from FCS opponent Northern Iowa in triple overtime.
On the other hand, it was also boring. Zero teams ranked in the AP Top 25 lost to an unranked opponent. The only highly rated team to go down in its season opener was No. 11 Oregon, who let its game-long lead slip away and helped a true freshman quarterback begin his journey to folk-hero status. As a result, Top 25 teams were 23-1 in Week 1 (22-0 against unranked competition), and the CFB Winning Edge win probability projections were 17-1 in games featuring two FBS opponents. (Stupid Oregon).
For the uninitiated, CFB Winning Edge uses a player-based ratings model to develop power rankings for all 130 FBS teams. To test its processes, it projects point spreads and win probabilities for every FBS vs. FBS matchup and compares the results against point spreads from Las Vegas sportsbooks. And each week, we take a closer look at the win probability for every Top 25 team.
Friday, Sept. 6
Marshall at No. 24 Boise State
Start the weekend right with a premiere Group of Five matchup featuring a New Year’s Six bowl contender. The Boise State Broncos traveled to Tallahassee (via Jacksonville) last week, and came away with a spirited victory. Boise State fell behind early but performed like the better-conditioned team in a 36-31 win over Florida State. True freshman Hank Bachmeier threw for more than 400 yards, and Robert Mahone added 142 yards and two touchdowns on the ground.
Marshall entered the spring of 2019 with the highest rated G5 defense in terms of CFB Winning Edge Roster Strength (which utilizes the talent projections of each player on the depth chart and adjusts for experience and career production). Unfortunately, a high-profile transfer and a Week 1 injury means the Thundering Herd will head to Idaho without two players who earned the max 100 overall rating in the CFB Winning Edge VGR+ formula.
CFB Winning Edge Win Probability: Boise State, 67 percent
Saturday, Aug. 31
No. 12 Texas A&M at No. 1 Clemson
The Clemson Tigers opened their national championship defense with a resounding 52-14 victory over ACC foe Georgia Tech. Travis Etienne was the star of the show, rushing for 205 yards and three scores on just 12 carries (that’s an average of 17.1 yards per attempt, folks). Fellow Heisman contender Trevor Lawrence connected with Tee Higgins for a beautiful 62-yard catch-and-run. However, Lawrence also threw two interceptions.
Texas A&M also cruised to 1-0. The Aggies beat Texas State 41-7, and it would have been worse if not for a pair of turnovers in the red zone. Quarterback Kellen Mond was responsible for one, and interception, but threw three touchdowns as well. Isaiah Spiller and Jashaun Corbin each added 100 rushing yards, and eight players caught passes in the tune-up for the rematch of last year’s thriller between the Aggies and Tigers at Kyle Field.
It would be wise to expect another, hard-fought game between these two. However, Clemson holds the home-field advantage this year, so the final score might not be as close.
CFB Winning Edge Win Probability: Clemson, 79 percent
New Mexico State at No. 2 Alabama
Alabama started slow in Atlanta but outclassed Duke in a 42-3 victory in the season opener. Meanwhile, New Mexico State landed the No. 1 spot in the Terrible 10 of Week 1 by posting a dismal 63.37 Team Performance rating in a 58-7 loss at Washington State. Bama by 100 (percent)? Our numbers say 99.
CFB Winning Edge Win Probability: Alabama, 99 percent
Cincinnati at No. 5 Ohio State
Cincinnati already has one Power Five victory to its name as the Bearcats side-stepped an injury-riddled UCLA squad to a 24-14 home win. The Thursday kickoff also gave Luke Fickell’s team an early start in its preparation for a date with his alma mater, Ohio State.
The Buckeyes flashed national championship potential in the opening minutes against FAU, and new quarterback Justin Fields looked like a Heisman contender early. However, Ohio State let the pressure off early and coasted through the final three quarters of a 45-21 win.
CFB Winning Edge Win Probability: Ohio State, 81 percent
No. 6 LSU at No. 9 Texas
Depending on your computer projection system of choice, you’ll likely see picks all over the map when it comes to this Top 10 matchup – and part of the reason is those same systems don’t agree this is, in all actuality, a Top 10 matchup. Bill Connelly’s SP+ (which has Texas ranked No. 23) projects LSU as a 13.8-point favorite, while ESPN’s Football Power Index (in which Texas ranks 20th) expects the Tigers to be favored by a shade under 10 points. A few others see it much closer.
We’re in the minority because we actually project the Longhorns (ranked No. 12 in our Team Strength power rankings) to pull off the upset. Yes, we know about all the injuries at running back (we track those daily), and we saw LSU dominate Georgia Southern 55-3. We also know Texas is inexperienced, especially on defense. However, we rank LSU No. 9. Throw in the home-field advantage, and Tom Herman might just improve his record to 13-2-1 against the spread (and 11-6 straight up) as an underdog.
CFB Winning Edge Win Probability: Iowa, 87 percent
Army at No. 7 Michigan
Like its archrival to the south, Michigan let its Week 1 opponent hang around longer than expected. Middle Tennessee actually took a 7-0 lead in the first quarter before the Wolverines responded. But on a positive note, new offensive coordinator Josh Gattis drew up 453 total yards worth of offense, including a trio of Shea Patterson touchdown passes.
Nevertheless, Gattis and Patterson will likely spend a lot of time standing around Saturday, watching the Army offense move its way down the field. The Black Knights beat lowly Rice just 14-7 Friday thanks to a game-winning touchdown drive that ate more than nine minutes and covered 96 yards in 18 plays. Oh, and Army also hoarded the ball for 44:41 of regulation last season against Oklahoma, and took the Sooners to overtime, in case you forgot.
CFB Winning Edge Win Probability: Michigan, 89 percent
Tulane at No. 10 Auburn
Can Auburn avoid the hangover effect following its dramatic come-from-behind victory over Oregon? The Tigers are often capable of the unexpected, and Tulane has the ability to surprise.
Last week, the Green Wave blew out FIU 42-14 and rolled up 545 total yards in the process (including 350 rushing yards). Sure, the Auburn defensive line is one of the best in the nation, but Oregon also moved the football on the ground early. And Tulane head coach Willie Fritz had two extra days (and all summer) to prepare something special.
CFB Winning Edge Win Probability: Auburn, 79 percent
Northern Illinois at No. 13 Utah
New Utah offensive coordinator Andy Ludwig followed the same plan as his predecessor and rode Zach Moss for 29 carries in a 30-12 victory over BYU in the Holy War. Moss finished with 187 yards and a touchdown, and the Utes also scored twice on defense. Moss could be in for another heavy workload Saturday against Northern Illinois, which allowed just 51 rushing yards and 1.8 yards per carry in a 24-10 victory over Illinois State.
CFB Winning Edge Win Probability: Utah, 86 percent
Buffalo at No. 15 Penn State
Penn State beat Idaho 79-7, and certain pockets of the college football world are atwitter at the Nittany Lions’ prospects to compete in the Big Ten East. Sean Clifford completed 14 of 23 passes for 280 yards and two touchdowns, including a pair of scoring strikes to K.J. Hamler, and the first-team defense was dominant, so the buzz isn’t completely unfounded.
Will Buffalo pose more of a threat? Only one FBS team lost more Roster Strength than the Bulls following the 2018 season, but Lance Leipold ranks 15th in the country with an 89.66 head coach rating, both according to CFB Winning Edge. Redshirt freshman quarterback Matt Myers, sophomore running back Jaret Patterson and tight end Zac Lefebvre led the way in a 38-10 win over Robert Morris last week.
CFB Winning Edge Win Probability: Penn State, 86 percent
Central Michigan at No. 17 Wisconsin
The Wisconsin Badgers humiliated USF 49-0 Friday night, which led to a 97.06 Team Performance rating that landed the Badgers in the No. 3 spot in our inaugural Terrific 10. Jonathan Taylor looked like a Heisman Trophy candidate while rushing for 135 yards and two touchdowns, and also improved his draft stock by catching a pair of touchdown passes. Central Michigan is also 1-0 thanks in large part to a solid performance from its running back, Jonathan Ward.
CFB Winning Edge Win Probability: Wisconsin, 87 percent
No. 18 UCF at FAU
It doesn’t get any easier for FAU following last week’s trip to Columbus. Though the Owls are expected to play at home Saturday, the UCF Knights are formidable foes. UCF ended its losing streak (remember, the Knights actually lost a game last year) with a 62-0 laugher over Florida A&M. Notre Dame transfer Brandon Wimbush flashed in his debut as the team’s new quarterback, but backup Dillon Gabriel actually threw for more touchdowns.
CFB Winning Edge Win Probability: UCF, 81 percent
Rutgers at No. 20 Iowa
It still seems strange that Rutgers and Iowa play in the same conference. Nevertheless, the Scarlet Knights are set to travel to Iowa City to open Big Ten play against the Hawkeyes. Iowa had no trouble with Miami (Ohio) in its 38-14 victory in Week 1, but the Hawkeyes suffered a key loss on the offensive line when Alaric Jackson went down with a sprained knee.
Kirk Ferentz’s squad must also contend with Rutgers’ two-headed running back attack of Isaih Pacheco and Raheem Blackshear. The pair combined for 197 rushing yards and Blackshear led the Scarlet Knights with nine receptions, which went for 126 yards (one fewer than Bo Melton’s team-leading 127), and a touchdown.
CFB Winning Edge Win Probability: Iowa, 90 percent
No. 23 Stanford at USC
It’s worth noting the current CFB Winning Edge FBS Team Profiles have Stanford quarterback K.J. Costello (a 100-rated player and one of the top 100 players in college football), splitting the starting role with usual backup Davis Mills. If Costello isn’t able to pass the concussion protocol in time for Saturday’s Pac-12 opener at USC, our win probability projection would drop six or seven percentage points in the Trojans favor.
USC will certainly be without its starting quarterback. J.T. Daniels suffered an unfortunate knee injury in Week 1 against Fresno State, and true freshman Kedon Slovis is slated to make his first career start in new OC Graham Harrell’s Air Raid. The position is also thinner than expected with backup Jack Sears entering the transfer portal late in the spring.
As things stand, we give the Cardinal a slight edge – but without Costello, this matchup would be a virtual toss-up.
CFB Winning Edge Win Probability: Stanford, 56 percent
No. 25 Nebraska at Colorado
Nebraska is off to Colorado for the renewal of a great Big 12 rivalry that is no longer an annual rivalry, and also no longer features any teams from the Big 12. The Cornhuskers looked sloppy offensively in Week 1, but thanks to two touchdowns on defense and another on a punt return, Nebraska managed to beat South Alabama 35-21. Quarterback Adrian Martinez considered a preseason Heisman contender, voiced his displeasure with the performance after completing just 13 of 22 passes for 178 yards and an interception.
Colorado comes in with a completely different mood following its 52-31 win over Colorado State in the Rocky Mountain Showdown. It was new running back Alex Fontenot, not superstar wideout Laviska Shenault or senior quarterback Steven Montez, who surprisingly led the way for the Buffs. Fontenot scored on three of his 19 carries and finished with 125 yards on the ground – a great start for him and also for new head coach Mel Tucker.
Some see Colorado as a trendy upset pick, but our numbers expect the Huskers to bounce back.
CFB Winning Edge Win Probability: Nebraska, 56 percent