Will David Johnson have a bounce-back season?

Will David Johnson have a bounce-back season?

With Week 1 of the NFL regular season upon us, there is much anticipation and excitement. Optimism is brimming throughout the league with the hope of good things to come in 2019. One player to be hopeful for is David Johnson. The Cardinals have a new coaching regime and quarterback with the potential to do some big things this year. Johnson can benefit greatly from this making him a candidate for a bounce-back season.

After Johnson’s monster 2016 campaign where he was arguably the best player in fantasy football, the last two seasons have been disappointing.

2017 was an extreme let-down as he only played in three-quarters of the first game before injuring his wrist against the Detroit Lions. He was the number one overall consensus pick in fantasy drafts that year and his injury was a major let-down for all fantasy managers that drafted him.

In 2018, Johnson was lucky enough to avoid the injury bug but unfortunately, his production was nowhere near what he had in that magical 2016 season. He failed to rush for over 1,000 yards (940) and only managed 50 receptions in a poorly run Arizona offense.

While Johnson did not look all too explosive as he did in 2016, not all of it was his fault. The Cardinals had the worst supporting cast of players in the NFL last year, and that certainly did not do Johnson any favors.

When defenses know you’re the only legitimate offensive threat, they will immediately key in on you and shut you down. Once that’s taken care of, you and your team’s offense are toast.

Rookie quarterback, Josh Rosen’s play was also dreadful in 2018, which had a dramatic negative impact on Johnson’s receiving game. A huge part of Johnson’s success comes through the air and with that element not being as effective as it truly could have been last year, it decreased his value considerably.

The coaching staff also did not properly utilize Johnson’s talents as they were continuously making him run right up the middle. Rather than have him bounce to the outside or throw to him, the Cardinals continuously ran him straight up the gut for a nominal gain time and time again. Arizona’s porous offensive line wasn’t much help either, causing Johnson to mightily struggle to find any kind of rhythm.

There are reasons for optimism though, as Johnson was able to finish out the year as RB10 while averaging 15.3 fantasy points per game in the process. That’s not bad considering how bad the team around him was last season.

The Cardinals decided to do a whole overhaul to their team this offseason. They have brought in a new coaching regime, being led by Kliff Kingsbury who’s been known for his high-scoring offenses during his days in the NCAA with Texas Tech.

They also drafted a new quarterback in Kyler Murray at number one overall in the 2019 NFL Draft this past April as well. Lastly, Arizona made sure to strengthen their receiving corps by drafting some new young talent by the likes of Andy Isabella, Hakeem Butler, and KeeSean Johnson. They also still have Larry Fitzgerald and a possible rising star in Christian Kirk too.

While Johnson wasn’t used properly in Arizona’s offensive schemes in 2018, he still received a high volume of carries as he averaged 16.1 per game which was the third-most in the league. He also was involved in about 83% of the Cardinals’ team snap shares as well which ranked as the fifth-most in 2018.

Finally, Johnson possessed the eighth-highest percentage in opportunity shares at 77.5% in 2018 with the Cardinals. As you may be well aware at this point, volume is a critical component to a player’s success in fantasy. The more opportunities they receive, the more likely it is for them to have a healthy level of production on a weekly basis.

Of course, even if a player is getting a large slice of the opportunity pie it doesn’t necessarily guarantee they will be a valuable fantasy asset. They need to make something happen on a majority of their opportunities to truly be an effective piece on a fantasy team.

Johnson failed to capitalize on the large percentage of opportunities he was given last year, but we can mainly attribute that to bad play-calling and a lousy supporting cast of players.

Now that the coaching staff has been revamped and the players surrounding Johnson have potential, there’s a strong possibility for him to have a resurgence here in 2019. Even though we may not quite exactly see the same kind of numbers he was able to put up in 2016, I do believe he will be considerably better in 2019 compared to last year.

For now, Johnson is still a first-round pick, being selected somewhere in the middle to the back-end. He possesses some significant fantasy upside due to his past production and change of scenery this year.

After the top-four running backs get selected (Elliott, Barkley, Kamara, and McCaffrey), Johnson would not be a bad option to take.

It will be exciting to see Johnson and the Cardinals take the field against the Detroit Lions at home this Sunday afternoon. The beginning of his bounce-back season begins there and hopefully, it will take off from that point on in the weeks proceeding beyond.

Only time will tell how successful Johnson will be this year, but I got a hunch it will be way more impressive than last year which in turn will cause his draft-stock to increase for next year. Take him now when his draft capital isn’t as high as it has been over the last couple of years.

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