DraftKings MLB pitcher picks:
The upper tier of pitching is full of pitfalls. We all know not to use Patrick Corbin on the road. That’s a given. Robbie Ray is usually better on the road but using him against a lineup full of right handed power seems like a bad idea. Pineda is solid, but not five figures worth of solid. Same goes for Dinelson Lamet on an unannounced innings limit.
If you want to chase strikeouts, Lucas Giolito is a strong pick. He struck out 11 Angels the first time around and only Atlanta has kept him from hitting 20 DraftKings points since the beginning of August.
Giolito’s main competition is Clayton Kershaw, who is at home against the Giants, a team he usually dominates. This year Kershaw hasn’t always been the Kershaw of old. The strikeouts aren’t at his usual elite level. The innings are down. That said, Kershaw is 9-1 with a 2.53 ERA at home. He has also only allowed two runs in 14 innings to the Giants this year.
The caveat there is that the Giants don’t strike out nearly as much as the Angels do. Kershaw is probably the most sure thing on the slate though. At only $200 more though, I think I like Giolito in this situation.
The middle tier is much of the same as the top. I don’t use Yankee starters, especially against Boston. Keuchel has been thumped by the Nats twice already. Shark against the Dodgers is solid, but his price is too high.
I’m not here just to provide negativity though. Let’s check out those few intriguing options. Cole Hamels has been much worse on the road but he has been so good against the Brewers that I’m considering him. Hamels has only allowed five runs in 24 innings to Milwaukee and averaged just a shade under 20 DraftKings points per start. That’s a strong return for the price.
Homer Bailey has similarly dominated the Tigers and he has been superb at home in an A’s uniform. The lack of strikeouts will ultimately chase me off of Homer on the full slate, but for you night slate players, it doesn’t get much better.
Mikolas has been a mess on the road, but he has a 3.98 ERA in all locations over his last ten starts. There’s hope against a Pittsburgh team that he has averaged 15.8 DraftKings points per start in five games. Still, the price looks a little high for a mid level guy that doesn’t get strikeouts.
The lower tier is messy, but there are a couple of intriguing options. Steven Matz has been abused by the Phillies, but he has a brilliant 2.02 ERA in 11 home starts and four relief appearances. Matz is an interesting play at likely low ownership.
Dylan Bundy hasn’t been all that good against anyone, but the Rangers have been cold for a while now. I really did like Brock Burke on the other side of this until news came out that he may be on a pitch limit. If there is no news either way, Burke is way too risky.
Tim Melville in San Diego looks interesting, but he only has 11 strikeouts in 14 innings. That said, he is being priced on his horrid home start against Pittsburgh. Melville only gave up one run in 12 innings in his other two starts. There’s a lot of upside for a little price here.
The Lopez Bowl in Miami is a great value place. Pablo is one of the best plays per dollar out there tonight. He has a 2.66 ERA in eight home starts. Now Pablo gets a Royals lineup sans DH. Yes, that was drool on my keyboard.
Jorge is in a similarly good spot, but with Melville and Pablo available, it seems silly to drop any further. Spencer Turnbull has struggled lately, but he was really good the first time he faced the A’s.
My picks: Melville, Pablo; Giolito, Pablo; Homer, Pablo; Hamels, Matz