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DraftKings NFL Week 1 DFS Ownership Projections

By Alex McKinnon

DENVER, CO - OCTOBER 1: Quarterback Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs smiles at tight end Travis Kelce #87 during player warm ups before a game against the Denver Broncos at Broncos Stadium at Mile High on October 1, 2018 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images)
DENVER, CO - OCTOBER 1: Quarterback Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs smiles at tight end Travis Kelce #87 during player warm ups before a game against the Denver Broncos at Broncos Stadium at Mile High on October 1, 2018 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images) /
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DraftKings NFL Week 1
TAMPA, FL – AUGUST 23: Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Chris Godwin (12) during the first half of an NFL preseason game between the Cleveland Browns and the Tampa Bay Bucs on August 23, 2019, at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, FL. (Photo by Roy K. Miller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /

Week 1 WRs – DraftKings NFL week 1 highest projected ownership

Chris Godwin ($6200) is the DFS darling to start the season with an expected 20% or more in Week 1. As the solidified second option with the potential to eventually usurp Mike Evans as Winston’s favorite target, Godwin is an undeniable value at $6200 against a 49ers defense that allowed the 8th most DraftKings points to opposing receivers last season with 39.7 per game. Godwin has been very efficient in his short career, averaging 14.7 yards per reception and brought in 7 TD receptions in semi-limited action over the last two seasons.

Adam Thielen ($6800) will likely hold a large share of the ownership this weekend based on his price tag and match up but will definitely see a significant bump should Stefon Diggs be sidelined on Sunday. One of the most consistent receivers in the past few seasons, Thielen should see as much if not more shares of the offense this season with a thinning receiving crop. He has a great match up as well against the Falcons who allowed the fifth most DK points to opposing receivers last season at 41.1 per game.

Dede Westbrook ($4800) is another beneficiary of a low price tag as the #1 receiver on the depth chart. Alongside Marqise Lee and newcomer Chris Conley, Dede Westbrook will be among another newcomer, Nick Foles, favorite targets this season coming off a moderately successful sophomore campaign where Westbrook posted a line of 66 receptions (on 101 targets), 717 yards and 5 touchdowns. The Jaguars will face a Chiefs defense who ranked in the lower half against the pass last season and a game total that favors the numerous offensive options on both sides on Sunday.

Odell Beckham Jr ($8100) begins the second chapter of his career with the Cleveland Browns, who have high expectations in a bizarro-world twist to the 2018-2019 NFL season. Beckham is flanked by Jarvis Landry and a number of lethal targets in the Cleveland offense. As we previously mentioned, QB Baker Mayfield loves to throw a deep ball as he lead the league in ‘deep pass attempts’ with 75 meaning OBJ should become a favorite target. Although they boast a generally talented defense, the Titans ranked among the bottom half against opposing receivers last season meaning a Baker-Beckham stack is very much in the cards this week.

Mike Evans ($7900) joins teammate Chris Godwin among the highest ownership projections this week meaning a Winston-Godwin-Evans stack may be among the most popular this Sunday. As the more expensive option, Evans has to produce more than Godwin to be a good value this week which is very plausible against a unproven 49ers defense. Having earned 1,000 yards at minimum in each of his first five seasons, Evans is one of the most consistent and proven receivers in the league totaling 6,103 yards and 40 TDs in his career. UPDATE: Evans has been added as QUESTIONABLE on the injury report (Illness). Watch for updates and bump Godwin up ten-fold should Evans be sidelined.

Tyler Lockett ($6000) is one of the safer options on the slate with the injuries to David Moore and D.K. Metcalf. He has a strong floor but I am cautiously optimistic on his ceiling with expected weather issues and a heavy dose of Chris Carson in the works. Lockett is coming off of his best season with 965 yards on 57 receptions and 10 TDs. The Bengals are much more proficient against the pass as opposed to the run but still are a very average defense against the air attack. At $6000, Lockett is also one of the better value plays on the slate.

Other players with high ownership: Tyler Boyd, Curtis Samuel, Julio Jones, D.J. Moore, Dante Pettis

Who Should I Play Out Of The Chalk?

Based on his price, Dede Westbrook is certainly a safe play at $4800 in a game with a very high game total. My favorite plays from this group, however, would be Chris Godwin (with or without Mike Evans) and Odell Beckham Jr. At his price, Godwin will be a very good to elite value play based on Evans status and Odell Beckham Jr should ball out in his debut with the Browns offense.