MLB DFS picks and pivots September 11: Can Mr. Sparkle shine again?

MLB DFS: Pitching breakdown

We get another loaded slate here on Wednesday and big ups to FantasyDraft for raising the bar by upping the entry size/prize pools on all their GPP’s down the stretch here. Every night this week the contests have filled early and they are continuing to push the bat higher which adds some intrigue for those looking to play some MLB DFS before football returns for Week 2.

At first glance, this looks like the ideal slate to go high/low at pitcher and while Stephen Strasburg and Robbie Ray may have the name value up top, Sonny Gray ($20.3K) is the SP1 I want to anchor to tonight on the road in Seattle.

Gray has been phenomenal all season long, with an elite 28.5% K rate to go along with his 52% GB rate and 11.4% swinging strike rate however over the last month, we have seen the Reds right-hander take his game even further. In the last 30 days, Gray ranks in the top 10 in baseball with a 31.1% K rate, while his swinging strike rate has jumped to 12.6% as he has racked up 7 or more K’s in 5 of his last 7 starts.

This match-up against the Mariners is a good one as the Seattle projected line-up has a 23.4% K rate and 42% GB rate against RHP this season and over the last two weeks, is striking out at over a 27% clip which is the second-highest mark in all of baseball during that 14 day stretch.

The last four right-handed arms to face Seattle have all put up 23 or more fantasy points including starts from Trevor Bauer, Justin Verlander and Kyle Hendricks while also seeing those stats skewed a bit due to a 15K beatdown from Cy Young candidate Gerrit Cole.

Now Gray may not be Cole, but he has two double-digit K outings in his last five starts and tonight with the Mariners having the lowest IRT on the slate, he makes for the ideal SP1 in cash games and GPP’s.

If you are looking for a pivot tonight at the top, Stephen Strasburg ($22.1K) will likely end up being far lower owned than Gray due to the match-up with the Twins and the price savings you get dropping down to Gray.

If you just look at recent trends, Strasburg is the clear top dog on this slate with a 32.2% K rate and elite 15.8% swinging-strike rate. With the Twins banged up, sitting guys like Kepler and Sano yesterday, this could end up being a sneaky spot to pay up for Strasburg who has the upside to be the top raw point arm on the slate.

One other note that I will keep harping on down the stretch, there is SO MUCH value in MLB DfS right now with the call-ups playing major roles so paying up for both arms, in this case Gray AND Strasburg, is going to be a build you can do with a mid-range stack and cheap one-offs.

I mentioned going high/low tonight and well, my friends it has been a while since we rocked this name but welcome back to Picks and Pivots, Glenn Sparkman. The last time we used Sparkman, who is $8.5K tonight, was a July start against the White Sox where he went out and tossed a 9 inning, complete-game shutout with 5K’s and 41 fantasy points.

Now, let’s not pretend anyone who used him that night saw that coming but the slate context then is very similar to the slate context now and I think we need to seriously consider Mr. Sparkles here tonight. We have a Coors Field slate and warm temperatures back in many ballparks so we want to pay for bats and punting with Sparkman against a K heavy White Sox team will allow us that kind of build.

The White Sox projected line-up has a 25.8% K rate against RHP this season and their 26.2% K rate against RHP as a team this season is the second-highest mark in all of baseball in 2019. Over the last two weeks, 6 of the 9 RHP who have faced this White Sox squad have put up 15 or more fantasy points which would be a value we would sign up for right now for Sparkman considering he is priced below most bats we intend to roster.

The question is, can Mr. Sparkle shine again?