NFL DFS: New Orleans Saints @ Los Angeles Rams
New Orleans Saints
The Monday Night Football game last week lived up to all of the hype, as the Saints snuck out the victory after a 50+ yard FG on a game-winning drive.
With Mark Ingram gone, we saw Alvin Kamara step into a workhorse role (without workhorse production), as he played on 75% of the team’s snaps with 20 touches and 28 routes ran. For context, Kamara’s average snap rate last season was 66.4%. If he sees the same type of usage in this contest, he’s a sure-fire bet to bounce-back in a game that should feature plenty of fireworks.
Michael Thomas picked up right where he left off, securing 10 or 13 targets for 123 receiving yards. Touchdowns are never a common occurrence for Thomas, so he remains a better target on full-point PPR sites (DraftKings), but against a declining Marcus Peters, we could see another nice performance. After posing a stellar PFF grade of 81.3 in 2017, Peters finished 2018 with a PFF grade of 62.1 and recorded a grade of 58.4 in week 1.
The biggest surprise of week 1 for the saints was Ted Ginn Jr. He ranked 3rd on the team in targets (7) behind Thomas and Kamara, and was able to turn it into a 7-101-0 line with a long-gain of 41 yards. He should line up with Aqib Talib who, much like Peters, disappointed in Week 1 with a 59.8 PFF grade. jared Cook showed a nice level of per-catch production, but the fact that he only saw 3 targets makes him too hard to trust in cash games.
I never really target Drew Brees on the road due to his notorious splits, but in a game that could see well over 55-60 total points, this isn’t a horrible spot to take a flyer on this week.
Cash Plays: Kamara, Thomas
GPP Plays: Brees, Ginn Jr., Cook
Los Angeles Rams
While Todd Gurley was quick to quiet the murmurs of a reduction in usage and playing time this season, there was a fair share of frustration as we saw backup running-back Malcolm Brown vulture the goal-line carries. Whether this is becomes a trend or not is yet to be seen, but it has to be an encouraging sign that Gurley logged 70% of the team’s snaps while rushing for 97 yards on only 14 carries. His price has actually come down $600 to an even $7,000 on FanDuel, making him an elite GPP play with hopes that he can find the end-zone.
The return of Cooper Kupp also had a major impact on the offense, as he immediately recorded 10 targets, but was only able to turn that into a 7-46-0 line. Even with the dismal production, it has to be an encouraging sign that he’s this involved, this early after his ACL tear in 2018. He remains a safe option in cash games against a porous secondary. Robert Woods saw no ill-effects of Kupp’s return, as he posted 8 catches for 70 yards on a team-high 13 targets. Marshon Lattimore just got absolutely torched by DeAndre Hopkins to the tune of an 8-111-2 line, making this an enticing spot for Woods at a reasonable price and lower ownership.
Brandin Cooks seemed to be the receiver that lost the most usage with Kupp’s return, as he only saw 6 total targets, covering 2 of them. Until I see consistency, he will remain a GPP-only option due to his big-play potential.
With the plethora of weapons and a secondary that ranked 22nd in pass DVOA last season, Jared Goff comes in as one of my favorite mid-tier options at the quarterback position. He’s going to need a massive outing if the Rams want to keep pace with the Saints.
Cash Plays: Goff, Kupp
GPP Plays: Gurley, Woods, Cooks