25-under-25: Aaron Gordon is embracing consistency

It’s time to accept that Aaron Gordon is not going to reach that hypothetical ceiling. The good news is that his floor is looking more useful every day.

When asked about “individual progress” in his exit interview last season, Magic forward Aaron Gordon said, with earnestness and genuineness, “I thought I played the game better … I feel like I learned how to win in the NBA and that’s the biggest part, more than any one individual skill.”

In this simple, somewhat cliched, response from the fifth-year veteran lie some kernel of truth that I’d been seeking since I agreed to write Gordon’s 25-under-25 entry for the second consecutive season. For Gordon, the truth is that he’s an improving, but still not very good shooter or scorer; that he is exceptional as a passer with physical tools that ensure a high defensive floor, and a demonstrated coachability that’s easy to overlook or take for granted. Statistically, Gordon’s 2018-19 season was all over the board: improved passing and playmaking, moderately improved shooting in some areas with regression in others, and slight defensive RPM improvement, but a decline in steals and blocks. To Gordon’s point though, he “played the game better.”

While his shooting and scoring have been caught in something of a take-three-points-forward (career-best 3-point and free throw accuracy), give-two-back (decrease in interior shooting accuracy and career-low free throw rate) uneven growth cycle, his overall game and utilization verged on revelatory this past season. Most noticeable, both statistically and in-game review, was an evolution in passing and playmaking. This latest development is evidence of a new dynamism that helps to crystalize the realization of the soon-to-be 24-year-old’s NBA identity.

My reading of “playing the game better” emphasizes his improvement, efficiency, and judgment as a passer/playmaker. From years one through four, Gordon had a steady season-over-season increase in usage rate, peaking at nearly 25 percent in 2017-18. Rising usage was most clearly borne out in his 2017-18 shot attempts (~38 percent increase over his previous career-high), free throw attempts (44 percent increase) and turnovers (63 percent increase over career-high – from 1.1 per game to 1.8). By contrast, assists (21 percent over career-high) showed just a moderate growth. Gordon was becoming more of a focal point without marked change in efficiency — he produced more because of opportunity.

In 2018-19, under new coach Steve Clifford, with a usage rate dipping below 22 percent, Gordon set career-highs in assists-per-game and assist percentage (16.6 percent). He threw less passes, but per NBA Stats, generated more assists, more potential assists, and more points off passes. He played more minutes and took fewer shots but saw improvements in effective field goal percentage and true shooting. Gordon, as a fifth-year player, started to do more with less and this shift coincided with Orlando’s first playoff appearance in his career which isn’t to suggest causation, but rather to acknowledge how a shift in his usage and play contributed to greater team success. This can also be suggested by his improved wins added per ESPN’s RPM data which shows 4.81 wins in 2017-18 compared to 6.52 last season.

As I looked back through Gordon’s tape, it wasn’t just a simple scheme change leading to easy pass/playmaking options. His assists came off reads: kick-outs, spotting cutters, pinpoint pocket passes to Nikola Vucevic, lobs off live dribbles, wraparounds, full-court transition dimes to streaking Evan Fournier — just a variety and range of passes thrown with a consistency that wasn’t previously accessible.

So what happened to get to unlock Gordon’s evolution and where does it go from here? The most obvious change in personnel was the addition of Clifford who took the reins from current Lakers coach Frank Vogel. Clifford’s reputation as a defensive mind was validated as the team achieved its first negative relative defensive rating (-2.3) since the 2011-12 season when Stan Van Gundy was still coaching. Their pace of play and offense didn’t suffer under Clifford either. Their offensive of 108.9 was their highest in nearly 10 seasons. In terms of the offense, while Gordon and point guard D.J. Augustin both experienced declines in usage, All-Star Nikola Vucevic saw a career-high 28 percent which fueled a career-best season.

The shift to loading up on Vucevic and establishing a more balanced distribution of possessions across the rest of the team (Gordon, Augustin, and Fournier with less; Terrence Ross and Jonathan Isaac with more) was a better reflection of the team and player’s strengths. Tapping into the strength of personnel seems like a basic concept, but the actual execution and player improvement are essential to its enablement. Vucevic and Gordon made leaps in 2018-19 and a portion of that credit goes to the new coach.

Gordon turned 24 on Sep. 16 and while that makes him a veteran by NBA standards, it’s hard to imagine he’s a finished product. He’s made steady improvement on his outside shot each season to the point that he’s almost an average shooter from three. His mechanics are mostly sound with a repeatable form and stroke. For Gordon to continue to ascend as a player and a contributor to team success, the jump shot is a key aspect. Even slight improvement of one to two percentage points can unlock more off-the-dribble actions which, combining with his elite athleticism and passing, gives him more avenues of attack.

A big part of my critique of Gordon from a year ago was his insistence on shooting pull-up jumpers. That shot made up 31 percent of his attempts in 2017-18 and he hit it at a 34 effective field goal percentage. The frequency dropped to 26 percent on a 42 effective field goal percentage a season later. To refer back to his exit interview comments, this is a great example of how he’s playing better — limiting inefficiencies through better judgment. The other areas of opportunity for his continued development are finishing at the rim and getting to the line more frequently. It was a surprise to see his shooting in the restricted area drop from nearly 70 percent down to 63 percent and despite slightly more attempts in that area, Gordon’s free throw rte still declined.

While the finishing and free throw rate are more easily addressable, his distance shooting appears to be the swing skill. His steady improvement and commitment despite what has been an unstable tenure in Orlando (near-constant fluctuations in coaching and front of office personnel) are signs of professionalism and maturity. These intangibles are critical in the pursuit and achievement of potential. And while his playmaking has evolved significantly and Clifford appears to have a better handle on utilizing Orlando’s talent to their strengths, I keep wondering what this team looks like with a higher-level NBA point guard. This isn’t a knock on Augustin or a condemnation of Markelle Fultz, but rather the reality that Elfrid Payton and the aforementioned guards are well-below average NBA point guards. The addition of a stabilizing force can create more frequent opportunities for Gordon to get clean looks from deep or easier looks at the rim.

Despite a historic dunk contest performance and a squeaky-clean image, Gordon is one of the least sexy players on this 25-under-25 list. He’s not a go-to-guy or a stat stuffer. As his current game is constructed, he’s a variation on a Draymond Green archetype as an ultra role-playing glue guy; a Ferrari utilized as a commuter car. But where Green’s basketball IQ has synthesized completely with his physical makeup to achieve some kind of ceiling potential, Gordon’s upside, even at 24, remains in the heavens, an imaginable amalgamation of athletic gifts mixed with burgeoning shooting, playmaking, and defense to unleash an ultimate weapon of sorts. It’s unlikely he reaches those heights, but even his floor is revealing itself to be a valuable ingredient to a winning formula in Orlando.

The insider’s perspective

by Philip Rossman-Reich

Remember the dunk contest in 2016? Imagine if that guy started to build basketball skills and become a starring player. After five years in the league, it is hard to believe Aaron Gordon is just 23 and still growing. But last year was perhaps his most complete season. He became a better playmaker and defender and learning when to be aggressive on the ball. The Magic now come with playoff expectations and Gordon is proving every game he is more than just that dunk contest.

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