25-under-25: The table is set for Deandre Ayton to feed

Looking back on the heralded 2018 NBA Draft class one year in, perhaps no top prospect has been more overlooked than the No. 1 overall pick, Deandre Ayton.

There are several reasons for this: He played for an irrelevant, 19-win Phoenix Suns team; his offensive output largely came in the paint (72.1 percent, to be exact); and in a perimeter-driven league, his game just plain wasn’t as exciting or potent as that of Luka Doncic and Trae Young, the top-two Rookie of the Year vote-getters.

Marvin Bagley III impressed on a surprising Sacramento Kings squad, showing they might not have made the wrong decision with their No. 2 selection after all. Before his season was cut short, Jaren Jackson Jr. looked like the ideal modern big, locking up defensively and spacing the floor on the other end. His partnership with rookie sensation Ja Morant will only inject more optimism into his future outlook.

The defensive-minded Wendell Carter Jr., NBA-ready Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and even red-shirting Michael Porter Jr. have also conjured up considerable buzz as players who can fit into the NBA’s pace-and-space era.

None of this is to say people have forgotten about Ayton. While he finished a distant third in ROY voting, that was more of a testament to a singularly spectacular race that featured an international phenom who proved his detractors wrong and a pint-sized point guard who struck a chord with an apathetic fanbase with the electricity of an actual lightning bolt.

Ayton quietly put together one of the best debut seasons in NBA history for a big man, becoming one of just seven rookies to ever average at least 16 points and 10 rebounds per game on 57 percent true shooting. He also posted the highest field goal percentage ever (58.5 percent) among rookies averaging a double-double.

Ranking first in field goal percentage, double-doubles, rebounds and dunks among last year’s rookies, as well as second in win shares, fourth in scoring and blocks, eighth in steals and ninth in assists, Ayton became one of 12 rookies in the lottery era to post at least 15 points and 10 rebounds per game. Nine of the previous 11 won Rookie of the Year.

He had the statistical production, elite efficiency and base skill-set for fans to be excited about his future, but none of the staying power of a Luka Doncic or Trae Young.

Heading into year 2, Ayton will need to amend that with the kind of breakout season the Suns require to bust out of the Western Conference cellar they’ve been locked in for the better part of nine years now.

Phoenix made a point of adding experience, established NBA players and shooting to the roster this summer, but none of those additions will singlehandedly flip the script. Ricky Rubio is an underrated pickup, but thanks to his 3-point woes, he’s not necessarily the ideal fit next to a playmaking wing like Devin Booker.

Dario Saric fills Phoenix’s 4-spot with another legitimate NBA player, Kelly Oubre Jr. is returning on a two-year deal to see how long both parties can ride out the Valley Boyz wave, and more mature college players like Cam Johnson and Ty Jerome could bring the kind of poise and shooting not typically expected of rookies.

Still, as much as general manager James Jones overhauled the roster, these moves were all made in the context of Booker and Ayton approaching that “Shaq and Kobe 2.0” dream label.

Booker is by far the more established of the two, averaging 26.6 points, 6.8 assists and 4.1 rebounds per game on 58.4 percent true shooting last year, but if Ayton can make strides on the defensive end and on the perimeter, he may still have the higher ceiling.

That either sounds overly ambitious or less than impressive depending on one’s opinion of Booker, but the big man slapped up a 16-10 stat line on incredible efficiency despite his best point guard being a shooting guard. That’s not nothing.

Whether deployed as a true 1 or created for others as a 2, Book was the Suns’ best playmaker. Combo guard Tyler Johnson filled the hole at the 1 after he was traded to Phoenix, but that was only for 13 games. Other than that, the Suns trotted out Isaiah Canaan and two second-round rookies (Elie Okobo and De’Anthony Melton) at the point.

Rubio’s assist numbers took a step back in his last two seasons with the Utah Jazz as he ceded more control to a similarly ball-dominant 2-guard in Donovan Mitchell. Even so, he’ll be the best facilitator the Suns have seen since Eric Bledsoe, Goran Dragic and possibly even Steve Nash. Rubio is no MVP candidate in the making, but he’s an oasis in a point guard-barren desert.

That alone should put Ayton on more people’s radars heading into 2019-20. As a rookie, his offensive production came in bursts. The Suns often made a point of feeding him early, but defenses adjusted, the big man got fatigued and Phoenix’s offense devolved into Devin Booker having to do everything himself.

With more potent shooters to spread the floor, a true 1-guard to take pressure off Booker and another year of development, Ayton is set to feast like never before. He only ranked in the 58.8 percentile as the roll man in pick-and-roll situations, per NBA.com, but his chemistry with Book was promising enough in their limited time together.

Of Booker’s 16.5 points created by assists per game, 3.0 of them went to Ayton — handily the highest number of any Suns teammate. They posted a 109.2 offensive rating when sharing the floor, which was the second-highest rating of any two-man Suns lineup that played at least 400 minutes together, trailing only Book and Kelly Oubre Jr.

Now, Ayton will have another competent ball-handler to work with.

There is room for apprehension when it comes to Rubio-Ayton pick-and-rolls, however, since neither is a proven 3-point shooter. Igor Kokoskov’s coaching staff was notorious for restricting the big man’s shot attempts to inside the 3-point arc (he attempted four 3s and missed them all), but under Monty Williams, he’ll get the chance to launch if he proves that 3-point shot should be part of his expanding arsenal.

Rubio is not the pick-and-roll wizard one would expect from such a creative playmaker either. According to NBA.com, he was in the 39th percentile among pick-and-roll ball-handlers last year. This traced back to his alarmingly high turnover frequency (22.8 percent), which ranked 80th out of 81 players with at least 200 such possessions. Booker committed a high number of turnovers in these sets too (18.3 percent), but still fared better overall, ranking in the 74th percentile.

Rubio is a nifty dribbler and passer, but he’ll need to take better care of the ball. His lack of a threat from the perimeter will allow defenses to sag off him and cover Ayton’s dives to the basket off screens, but having competent shooters to flank those two will help mitigate this weakness.

The Suns ranked dead last in 3-point percentage last year, but if they can take a step toward middle-of-the-pack territory, sending help to cover Ayton will become a tricky proposition. The big man showed flashes of passing ability last year, to the point of frustration for a segment of the fanbase that demanded he go up every time on the block. Ayton received the fifth-most paint touches per game in the league but passed out of those situations 21.5 percent of the time.

What was once a flaw when the Suns lacked perimeter threats will become a strength if Phoenix’s long-range attack is as improved as advertised. His knack for finding shooters out of double-teams will keep defenses honest, and in turn, make it much more difficult to contain his dives off screens.

Even if Rubio is not the pick-and-roll maestro fans are envisioning for their blossoming big man, even being able to throw a competent entry pass will help Ayton feed like never before.

The Suns center logged the seventh-most post-up possessions in the NBA last year and shot 52.5 percent on those looks, which ranked eighth among the 36 players with at least 200 such possessions. He also shot 67.9 percent on paint touches, which ranked 15th out of 54 players with at least 200 touches.

Rubio’s ability to drive and dish will be a big help too. Among the 26 players with at least 800 drives last year, the Spaniard finished third in assist percentage (15.0 percent). That capacity for dump-offs will make life exceedingly simple for a seven-footer who converted 71.2 percent of his shots within five feet of the basket (eighth out of 148 players with at least 200 attempts from that range).

Defense is what will ultimately decide Ayton’s ceiling in the NBA, but that will come with time. He showed growth on that end, and his biggest issues were usually focus and fatigue, not ability. Having a hard-nosed backup like Aron Baynes to mentor and toughen him up should do wonders on this front, even if Ayton’s off-ball awareness — and status as a defensive anchor — is still years away from where it needs to be.

Considering that he posted historic rookie numbers without a true point guard, that he’s still only 21 years old and that he’s a freaking first overall pick, Deandre Ayton deserves more attention than he’s currently receiving. If he helps the Phoenix Suns take their first tangible step back toward relevance in 2019-20, he’ll remind people why he went No. 1 in a loaded draft class in the first place.

The table is set. There’s no need for patience anymore; it’s time to let the big man feast.

The insider’s perspective

by Adam Noel

While his defense remains a work in progress, Deandre Ayton had himself a standout rookie season with the Phoenix Suns. The big man was one of only 13 players in the NBA to average a double-double last season, with 16.3 points and 10.3 rebounds a game. He also was named NBA All-Rookie First Team, becoming the 10th in Suns franchise history.

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