Domantas Sabonis might be an odd fit in the modern game, but the numbers say that he’s a future star just waiting to break out. Will this be the year?
I’m not generally a fan of random benchmark stat combinations. For as much fun as we all have going down the Basketball-Reference rabbit hole (especially when Dwight Howard shows up as the Cheshire Cat), you can find a motley crew of stats that places just about any player in exclusive company if you look for long enough.
For example, there have only been two rookies in NBA history to put up 1,050 points, 430 boards, 60 3-pointers and 50 blocks: LeBron James…and Charlie Villanueva.
Thankfully, you have eyes, and know that Charlie Villanueva is, well…Charlie Villanueva (too bad nobody told Joe Dumars).
The thing about these random number combos is that they don’t often correspond to one another in a way that tells us anything meaningful about the player in question.
Except when they do.
A dead giveaway that you’re onto something good is when A) there’s a sizable (but not too sizable) list of studs that show up alongside the guy you’re searching up, and B) you don’t have to do a lot of finagling to find the result you’re looking for. It’s either there, or it’s not.
So it was with open eyes that I chased after the white rabbit and checked to see who else besides Domantas Sabonis had achieved the following averages: 20 points and 12 rebounds per 36 minutes while playing over 1,500 minutes in an age-22 season or younger.
See? No chicanery.
Now take a gander at the names to appear alongside the young Lithuanian, and let them process in your brain for a minute or two:
Kareem. Hakeem. Shaq. McAdoo. Belamy. Love. Boogie. Jokic. KAT. Only John Drew stands as an outlier, and even he was a two-time All-Star.
Oh, and only three of those starry names managed to accrue over three dimes per 36 in their associated seasons: Kareem, barely; Jokic, who is maybe the best passing big man ever, and Sabonis, who clocks in at 4.2 assists per 36 – a number that reminds all of us he has more of his old man in him than initially meets the eye.
Unlike every other player on the list though, Sabonis hasn’t sniffed All-Star consideration. That’s par for the course when you’re a below-the-rim European (albeit one with a famous dad) who comes off the bench in Indiana.
But these 25-under-25 rankings weren’t done by fans; they were a composite of the Step Back’s staff. We’re a bunch of hardcore NBA nerds. If any group of basement dwellers is going to know an under-the-radar stud’s true value, it’s us. And yet here Sabonis is, one spot ahead of (no offense) Bam freaking Adebayo.
The worst part of all? Despite my being a huge fan of Domas’ game and ceiling as a per-36 darling who actually warrants 36 minutes a night, I can’t in good conscious argue his ranking as an egregious error. Do I fully believe he’s a superior overall player to his teammate, Myles Turner, who checked in at No. 10? Absolutely. I also know where the sport is and where it’s headed, and neither of those things jive with the young man straight out of the old school.
If you follow the NBA regularly, it’s not complicated. We know what Turner and Adebayo are: rim protecting dive-men who can hold their own on a switch. Turner is a dozen spots higher than Adebayo because of his range (he hit 38.8 percent on 3s last season, whereas Bam went 3-for-15 on the year) and fully-realized rim protecting abilities,. Other than that, they’re pretty similar. More importantly, they’re an easy fit into any modern system.
Sabonis, for all his skills and savvy, is anything but. He doesn’t shoot 3s, or at least he hasn’t since he got to the Pacers two years ago. He blocks fewer shots per game than John Wall and Danny Green. Opponents hit one percent more of their attempts on average when he’s guarding them, which ranked 91st of 120 players who defended at least 10 shots per game last season.
Add it all up, and only three years into his career, there’s already a question about whether Sabonis is a man without a position. It’s why he barely made our list, and why not everyone is terribly confident in the Pacers’ plan to start him and Turner together this season.
Is any of this fair though? Consider another man who made the list above, Nikola Jokic. The Joker deters no one at the basket, and is bigger and slower than Sabonis. Any possession in which he holds his own is seen as a minor victory. Jokic is in a class of his own as a passer, but has leveled off as a deep threat. There’s no reason to believe that the man they call Domas, with his array of post moves that leave even veteran defenders in the dust, can’t be something of an offensive fulcrum for a team that thinks outside the box.
It’s just that, well…who’s making the investment to find out if it works? I doubt it’s the Pacers, who already have Turner locked up on what everyone agrees is a fair contract extension that kicks in this year. Would you want your favorite team to wager, say, four years and $60 million on Sabonis being something more than a regular Sixth Man of the Year candidate?
With the direction the league is going, it’s not an easy bet to make. It’s why, of all the storylines to watch this season, what happens in Indiana is as interesting as any. Could Sabonis get traded at the deadline for a more conventional 4-man? Does he once again experiment with a 3-pointer to try and convince the Pacers (and the rest of the league) that he’s an easier fit alongside a traditional center? Does Indiana reshape its offense to try and take advantage of some of Sabonis’ unique talents?
It’s all on the table. If this is the year that Sabonis finally blows up in a way that non-NBA nerds actually notice, just don’t act surprised. There’s a star player somewhere in that package, even if it is one from another era.
It’s just a matter of time before someone finds the key to unlock him.
The insider’s perspective
by Fox Doucette
Domantas Sabonis showed last year that he’s one of the best finishers at the rim in the league. His 74.2 field goal percentage ranked not far below guys like Kevin Durant (75.2), LeBron James (75.5), and Giannis Antetokounmpo (76.7) and ranked 27th in the NBA among the 335 players with at least 50 attempts from 3 feet and in, per Basketball Reference. That’s 91st percentile quality. The Pacers have a first-rate inside scorer in Sabonis, and that opens up possibilities for better floor spacing on offense.
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