College Football Believe it or Not: UCF wins the Pac-12 and the rise of Kansas

Week 3 of the season didn’t have much in the way of shock value, but FanSided college football experts Michael Collins and Patrick Schmidt found a few things to which they said: “believe it or not”.

After the third week of the 2019 college football season, many things remained status quo. Clemson, Alabama, and Georgia all destroyed their opponents, and there wasn’t a lot of intrigue happening in the rest of the Top 25.

The Citadel did manage to vanquish another FBS foe, but we can’t really categorize that under “Believe it or Not” since … well … it was Georgia Tech. However, we did manage to find a few college football narratives of the week for another edition of, “Believe it or Not”, with FanSided college football experts Michael Collins, and Patrick Schmidt.

5. Believe it or not, UCF would win the Pac-12 this year

Schmidt Says – Believe It: UCF has been unfairly disrespected and underrated for the last few years. They change coaches, they change quarterbacks, players go to the NFL and the results stay the same.

The Knights are one of the best programs in the nation and are slighted for not playing in a Power 5 conference. But if they played in the Pac-12, they would be viewed differently. Not only that, but I think they would be the favorite ahead of Utah, Washington and Oregon. The cumulative effect of playing nine Pac-12 opponents would take a toll but after seeing the Knights make Stanford look like a high school team, I think they are more than ready for the challenge.

Collins Says – Not: I’m all for UCF gaining some respect and having their funny little celebrations, rings, and banners in joyous recognition of their paper national title. But the fact is, playing one or two quality opponents a year and managing to pull off some nice wins does not mean you are a Power-5 contender.

As Patrick said, playing nine Pac-12 opponents and having to deal with much higher competition week in and week out (higher than say, oh … FAMU, FAU, South Florida, East Carolina, UConn, Tulsa, and the list goes on) would make the Knights understand exactly why fans, sportswriters, and the playoff committee are hesitant to throw them into the same category as teams who play a much more grueling schedule.

UCF is good, and they might even find a way into the College Football Playoff due to their lack of schedule strength combined with lopsided wins, but they aren’t going to step into any Power-5 conference (even the Pac-12) and win it.

Moving on…

4. Believe it or not, Kansas will make a bowl game

Schmidt Says – Not: Kansas hasn’t made a bowl game since the 2008 Orange Bowl. After beating Boston College on Friday night and with Les Miles on the sidelines, expectations are high. Are they so high the Jayhawks can win six games and make a bowl game?

I would pound the table and make a compelling case why they would if they didn’t lose to Coastal Carolina in Week 2. That was a win Kansas needed to have if they wanted to become bowl-eligible. At 2-1, they need to find four wins in the Big 12. That used to Kansas take 4-5 years to compile.

I think games vs. West Virginia and Texas Tech are winnable. There’s always the potential for a team to underestimate Kansas and get punched in the mouth like Texas found out a few years ago. But they’d need to win two out of Baylor, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, and Iowa State. You can (rock) chalk (Jayhawk) up a loss vs. Oklahoma and Texas for sure.

I think Kansas is a year away from competing for a bowl game, but I like Les Miles, so I’ll be rooting for them and for their fans who have suffered long enough.

Collins Says – Not: If Kansas played in the Pac-12 or the American, I’d say maybe. But in the Big 12? Not a chance this year. There are simply too many really good teams in the conference, and Les Miles doesn’t have that many upsets in his bag of tricks.

Kansas has greatly improved to be certain, but which team will show up on a weekly basis? The one who just humiliated Boston College in their own stadium … or the one who dumped against Sun Belt cupcake Coastal Carolina at home?

Maybe next year, Les.

3. Believe it or not, the ACC is worse than the AAC

Schmidt Says – Not: The ACC is home to the No. 1 team in the nation in Clemson but the rest of the conference is pretty weak. No. 21 Virginia is the only other ACC team in the latest AP Poll, and the conference took it on the chin this weekend.

Boston College lost to Kansas at home despite being 20-point favorites, Georgia Tech lost to The Citadel who ran the Ramblin Wreck’s old triple-option offense, and Virginia Tech barely survived Furman. Yikes.

The ACC has been underrated for the last few years, coinciding with the rise of UCF. The Power-6 argument is legit with Memphis, Navy, Temple, and SMU off to undefeated starts and Cincinnati’s lone loss coming at the hands of Ohio State. The AAC has some really solid teams, perhaps more than the ACC, but the Clemson factor really outweighs everything else so I can’t say the ACC is worse than the AAC.

Collins Says – Not: People talk about the SEC being top-heavy? Have they really gandered at the train wrecks being fielded by many ACC schools? Clemson is really the only legitimate Top 25 team in that entire conference. FSU is on a downslide, UNC is Jekyll and Hyde, and Miami has faded away into the sunset.

When your conference’s claim to “other good teams besides Clemson” is Wake Forest and Virginia then you’re full of weak sauce. The ACC does have their own network now, so they have one in the plus column over the American there.

In contrast, the American is offering up a handful of teams who may …may … be bowl eligible this season, a couple who have throat-punched Power-5 teams, a team at the top of their conference who could crash through the College Football Playoff glass ceiling for the Group of Five, and then a whole bunch of meh.

There’s not a lot separating them, but the edge still goes to the ACC.

2. Believe it or not, Jalen Hurts will be a first-round pick

Schmidt Says – Believe It: If you asked me this in the spring, I would have said it was as likely as me being a first-round pick. Jalen Hurts is an exceptional player but what kept me from tabbing him as a top-tier NFL prospect was his ability to make plays in the passing game and if he had the NFL arm teams covet.

But fast forward to today and I would bet on Hurts being a first-round pick and I think there’s a good chance he’s the second or third quarterback taken behind his former Alabama teammate, Tua Tagovailoa. Oklahoma coach Lincoln Riley turned Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray into Heisman winners and No. 1 picks. He might do the same with Hurts who reminds me of Dak Prescott coming out of Mississippi State.

Prescott, however, slipped to the fourth round, despite many thinking he’d be a second-round pick. Based on the evolving NFL and quarterbacks being evaluated differently today than years ago, I think the door is wide open for Hurts to be a first-rounder.

Collins Says – Not: Barring injury or Ed Orgeron laying a voodoo curse on Alabama’s quarterback that can only be removed with a chicken-bone cross, then Tua Tagovailoa will be the number one overall pick and the first quarterback taken in the 2020 NFL Draft.

Congrats, Miami Dolphins.

However, after that, it’s one big crapshoot. The bounty of quarterbacks we’ve seen in recent seasons has filled out many of the teams who had a serious need at the position. Other teams who still have established starters on their teams will probably be leery of using a first-round pick on a project or potential backup quarterback.

Jalen Hurts has always been surrounded with questions, and not only will he be judged by how he performs for the rest of this season, but how his predecessors Baker Mayfield and Kyer Murray perform. If those two should falter during this NFL season, Hurts may get the unfortunate label of “system quarterback”, sending his stock down to lower second or early third round.

Possible he goes in the first round, but not likely.

And now… (have your eggs and rotten tomatoes ready to hurl, everyone?)

1. Believe it or not, we’re headed for two SEC teams in the playoff again

Schmidt Says – Not: Just two? Why not three teams? The SEC has the No. 2, No. 3 and No. 4 teams in the AP Poll with Alabama, Georgia, and LSU rolling early. We’ll definitely not see three teams, but two teams are a definite possibility as we saw two years ago.

The safest of the trio is Georgia who looks like they’ll breeze through the East and face either Alabama or LSU in the SEC Championship Game. I think Alabama and LSU will be undefeated when they meet in early November. If LSU loses, they’ll be eliminated. If Alabama loses, they might sneak in the backdoor without a conference title as they’ve done before.

They would need Georgia to go undefeated and whoop up on LSU in the SECCG. Then, they’d need the Pac-12 and Big 12 champs to have at least one loss and get the benefit of the doubt from the voters, which they’ve had happen before.

All that said, it’s definitely possible, if not a strong likelihood, but ultimately, I think the SEC will get one because Oklahoma, Ohio State, and Clemson will be in there, leaving just one seat at the table for the SEC.

Collins Says – Believe It: I know, I know. SEC-bias is a “real thing” and SEC-fatigue has become a national epidemic.

This is me, not caring.

Right now, the No. 2, 3 and 4 teams in the nation are in the SEC, and prior to the SEC Championship Game, the only ones who will meet head to head are Alabama and LSU. There is every likelihood that either Alabama or LSU will land in the SEC title game with an unblemished record, as will Georgia.

Two teams enter, one leaves with a single loss to a probable top-three team.

This isn’t Thunderdome. That was proven in 2017.

If the playoff committee follows their usual logic (if you can call it that) they’ll continue with their “best four teams right now” approach to deciding who makes the playoff. Unless there are three other undefeated teams, which is highly unlikely, the committee will reward the SEC with two playoff spots once again.