25-under-25: Can John Collins and the Hawks soar to new heights?

Behind an exciting young core, the Hawks could be primed for a leap in 2020. What they get from John Collins could determine just how far they go.

When Trae Young tosses lobs to his teammates, he has a habit of leaving his feet just as the recipient of the pass sends the ball through the rim.

Last season — despite playing entirely below the rim — Young did quite a bit of jumping, due in large part to John Collins’ explosiveness and power as a finisher. The pair connected on 120 made shots at the rim and 163 buckets overall — a major driver of Young’s resurgent rookie campaign and Collins’ ascent to the fringes of All-Star consideration.

The two were made to complement one another on offense and have forged a dynamic and synergistic pick-and-roll partnership with one another. Young can spot seemingly any pass from any angle and is the sort of shooter who demands extra attention when he rounds screens 30 feet from the basket. Collins, meanwhile, reduces his margin for error. Passes thrown off-target or out of step with his dive to the basket usually still end up crammed through the hoop thanks to Collins’ otherworldly leaping ability and dedication to rolling hard. He glides effortlessly and endlessly through the air, keeping constant pressure on the rim regardless of whether or not he actually receives the ball. Weak-side defenders are necessarily pulled into Collins’ orbit, leaving shooters open around him, and Young, despite his size and age, has the wherewithal to find them:

A reluctance to leave Collins open on the roll is understandable. He ranked among the most efficient pick-and-roll finishers in the NBA last season, and the force and flair with which he finishes is nearly as demoralizing as the points themselves. Even when Young eschews the corner 3 for the more glamorous lob, Collins can finish over multiple defenders:

It’s that dynamic that informs the Hawks’ blueprint for roster construction: surround a consummate passer with an undeniable force at the basket and three potent shooters, and let opposing defenses pick their poison (the Hawks scored at a top-five rate and created the highest shot quality in the league when Young and Collins shared the court).

If Young is at the center of it all, dictating the tempo and direction of possessions, then Collins is floating somewhere above it, waiting for the right moment to strike. Most often, those moments come within the flow of the game and without warning. He is a vital component of Atlanta’s offense but often seems to exist apart from it. Head coach Lloyd Pierce noted last season that he doesn’t call plays for his big man, but Collins is very much an intentional part of the offense. Rather than posting up or isolating against other bigs, however, Collins constantly buzzes — setting screens or darting toward the basket — looking for ways to impact possessions.

While not necessarily a primary option, he’s a serviceable one in most any situation. He improved his efficiency in his second year despite carrying a significantly heavier load and has displayed a versatility that even most optimists wouldn’t have anticipated when he was drafted. Collins can handle the ball and create his own offense in a pinch, and while the post isn’t the focal point of his game, he’ll punish smaller defenders who switch onto him. He’s added face-ups, ball-handling and a steadily improving jumpshot as counters to his devastating rolls to the basket:

On occasion, his versatility translates to the other end of the floor. The quick, graceful bounce that allows him to play above the rim also helps him protect it while his agility and strength allow him to switch screens and cover large swaths of the court. His attentiveness, however, tends to waver, neutralizing some of his physical tools. He often fails to diagnose actions or anticipate rotations as the league’s best rim protectors do, and his activity on defense declined from his first season to his second, raising questions about Collins’ long-term viability as the anchor of Atlanta’s defense — particularly with a sieve like Young floating around at the point of attack.

If Collins proves a capable defensive center, it allows Pierce to deploy more shooting and defensive versatility around him without compromising his interior defense. If Collins remains unstable, it trims some of Atlanta’s flexibility and prevents them from surrounding Young with pieces that will optimize his passing and shooting.

For the time being, Pierce seems intent upon using Collins primarily at power forward, which, in the short term, is perfectly fine. The Hawks have the luxury of patience and low expectations entering the 2020 season. The playoffs are a possibility but far from a certainty, while both Collins and Young could be primed for prolific individual seasons. Whatever the results in April, Collins will play a central part. Atlanta has laid a foundation and charted a course for gradual, cohesive growth. Now its core has an opportunity to take another synchronized leap.

The insider’s perspective

by Chris Guest

John Collins, the uber-bouncy second-year player out of Wake Forest, is one of the most promising young big men in the league. John the Baptist has lived up to his nickname and produced some of the most scintillating dunk highlights in recent memory. Last season, the 21-year-old produced 19.5 points and 9.8 rebounds per game -– a statistic matched by only 17 others players in their age-21 or younger seasons including All-Stars and Hall of Famers such as Shaquille O’Neal, Tim Duncan, Chris Webber, Blake Griffin, Anthony Davis and Karl-Anthony Towns.

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