25-under-25: Jaren Jackson Jr. is not a blank slate anymore

As a rookie, Jaren Jackson Jr. was a talented blank slate. He enters his second season on a superstar trajectory.

As a draft prospect, Jaren Jackson Jr. appealed to a very specific kind of NBA obsessive.

The loaded 2018 NBA Draft class saw freshmen bigs taken with five of the first seven picks, each of whom presented unique combinations of ceiling and floor, stretch and strength, potential and present, offense and defense.  Of that group, Jackson had played the fewest minutes and attempted the fewest shots. His potential was evident — the reason he was the third big off the board, the fourth player selected overall — but he was also the blankest slate. His defensive toolbox was stuffed to overflowing, but those skills don’t always translate directly. He made nearly 40 percent of his 3-pointers but on less than 100 attempts. He shot nearly 60 percent inside the arc but not in a primary scoring role, or one where he was responsible for creating the majority of his own scoring opportunities.

Jackson looked like a player who could do just about anything but without a sample large or enough or a role NBA-specific enough to draw any hard conclusions about what he definitely would or would not be.

Jackson, then, seemed to appeal most to NBA draftniks with a surplus of imagination. This was a fairly sharp contrast to the other young bigs he was being measured against.

Deandre Ayton’s ceiling was just the Arizona version of Deandre Ayton, with the dial turned to 11. If Mo Bamba hit his ceiling, it was going to be as a feared rim protector who could also spot-up from the corners. With Ayton, Bamba, Wendell Carter Jr. and Marvin Bagley, the mystery was how good they would turn out to be. But the ways in which they’d be good were right there in front of us. Most everyone felt confident that Jackson’s ceiling was high, but the ability for his ceiling to accommodate our wildest fantasies or, perhaps most tantalizing, the things we didn’t even know enough to wish for, were his biggest selling points.

One year into his professional career, the boundaries of Jackson’s abilities are beginning to come into focus. And nothing we’ve seen so far was taken any hypotheticals off the table.

Injuries limited him to just 58 games, but he averaged 13.8 points, 4.7 rebounds and 1.1 assists per game, in just over 25 minutes. He made better than 35 percent of his 3s and no other rookie bigs were even close to being in his league as a spot-up shooter. He delivered on his face-up potential, averaging nearly three drives per 36 minutes and scoring at a rate comparable to Blake Griffin, and was better than average as a post-scorer. On defense, Jackson posted healthy block and steal rates and ESPN’s Real Plus-Minus estimated him to be among the 40 most impactful defenders in the entire league.

There is every reason to think that over the next few seasons Jackson will be one of the best defensive players in the league and potentially a perennial Defensive Player of the Year candidate. There is every reason to think he will be among the most dangerous outside shooting bigs in the league, a player whose catch-and-shoot gravity will warp opposing defense’s and dramatically affect the fortunes of his teammates. There is every reason to think that his handle, face-up ability and soft touch around the basket will make him a viable primary scorer, acting as the fulcrum of an exceptional offense.

Inflated assessments of young players have a way of dying quickly, being dampened by reality. We haven’t had to give up on Trae Young being the next Steve Nash on offense. But we have absolutely had to reconcile with the fact that he will almost certainly, at best, be Steve Nash on defense.

But, after 1,515 NBA minutes, there is no reason for us to give up any of our fantasies about Jaren Jackson Jr. If you looked at him, predraft, and thought he could be a chilled out Kevin Garnett for the modern era, if you thought he could be Karl-Anthony Towns but dialed in on defense, if you thought he could be Anthony Davis with range out to 30 feet, you honestly might be right.

The insider’s perspective

by Greg Steele

Despite being a mere 19 years old, Jaren Jackson Jr. is already an accomplished shot-blocker, averaging 2.6 blocks per 48 minutes as a rookie. He proved effective defending the pick-and-roll, showcasing both the quickness to stay in front of guards and the vertical presence to defend the rim against big men. Jackson also displayed promise as a jump shooter, knocking down 51-of-142 3-pointers.

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