25-under-25: How Trae Young can continue his offensive revolution

Trae Young was already an offensive dynamo as a rookie. This year, adding one skill can help him continue that dominance.

Trae Young’s rookie learning curve was three months long.

Fledgling point guards typically struggle out of the gate, and Young was no exception. Through his first 50 NBA games, Young was putting up numbers — 16.5 points, 3.1 rebounds, and 7.3 assists per game — but his efficiency was terrible. Despite a reputation as an elite pull-up shooter in college, Young hit just 29.5 percent from three over that stretch, posting a well below-average 51.9 percent true shooting and turning the ball over on one of every five possessions. It was no surprise that the Hawks were 15-35 over that stretch, too.

But starting in early February, things clicked. Young started connecting from outside, hitting 36 percent on 6.9 attempts per game. That gave him more confidence, and his turnover rate dropped to 14.1 percent from 20.3. He hit his crescendo in the last week of February — 36 points and eight assists in a loss to Houston, 36 points, eight rebounds, 10 assists in a win over the Timberwolves, and a career-high 49 points to go with eight rebounds and 16 assists in the epic quadruple-overtime Hawks/Bulls game on March 1. By the end of the year, Young had enough momentum to seriously challenge for Rookie of the Year — and his potential effect on a team’s offense was palpable, as the Hawks suddenly spiked to the 11th-best offense in the league after the All-Star break.

We have seen the blueprint for what Young can do if his shooting is real. The two teams in last year’s Western Conference Finals were the first and third-best offenses in the league last year, and both Golden State and Portland got there built on the threat of Steph Curry and Damian Lillard pulling up from anywhere on the floor. Young’s propensity for quick-release pull-up 3s out to 30 feet could eventually put him in that same tier.

He combines that with high-level dribbling ability that showed up far beyond what he displayed at Oklahoma. In the increased space of the NBA, Young had more room to go to his Kyrie-like crossover moves and shifty change of direction plays, and that allowed him to get to the rim at an effective rate. He also is in the argument for best young passer in the league with Ben Simmons and Luka Doncic, because he is so technically sound at hitting his spots and creating open shots out of bad situations. When he combines these two skills, you can easily see what separates young from similar deep-ball launchers like Carsen Edwards.

This skill set has people talking about Young not only as an obvious franchise cornerstone but as a pillar of successful offensive play used to evaluate others. He probably is underrated by this ranking of under-25 players, honestly. His likely future value to the league and the Hawks is going to be much higher than Jamal Murray, who he’s a spot ahead of, as well as the three players directly ahead of him. But, he still has to realize that potential. He needs to keep building ways to flummox opposing defenses, and there’s one obvious hurdle that he needs to clear to do that — finishing.

Here is Young’s finishing performance (classified as restricted area attempts) from last year compared to the rookie seasons of the current point guards you could classify as
“above-average volume shooters” — Steph, Lillard, Kyrie Irving, Damian Lillard, and D’Angelo Russell. For posterity, their 2018-19 performances have been included to demonstrate progress.

Right away, Young’s volume jumps out, as does his low amount of assisted attempts at the rim. That indicates a low number of cutting and off-ball attempts, which does point at the ball-dominant nature that could be an issue in the future. But you can also see that, for the most part, the players who are better finishers are the better offensive players. Curry, the all-time shooter, is also the best finisher of the group currently; Irving is close to him, and might be the second-best individual scoring point guard in the league; Russell and Walker lag behind. Lillard is lower, but he has consistently carried the highest volume of the group, and also might be the best mid-range shooter of the group.

For Young to get to the level where he is a truly game-changing point guard, he needs to get at least above 55 percent at the rim on his volume of attempts. That’s what will likely end up separating him into either the Curry tier or the Walker tier. To do that, it’s all about strength. Young already has pretty effective touch, as his floater game looks promising, and he has an effective array of scoop shots that can help him extend through and around opponents.

But you can see in the above clip that he has difficulty engaging into defenders that rotate over the top, and also struggles to shed defenders once he gets into the lane. The degree of difficulty on the last shot comes from the inability to shed Justise Winslow fully, even though Trae’s initial step helps him gain the edge at first. That can be accomplished with raw strength, quickness, or balance and coordination, and the latter is probably Young’s best outlet to becoming an elite finisher. Much was made about Young’s frame and athleticism affecting his ability to finish coming out of the draft, but that discussion did ignore his coordination, which was fairly good in college and showed promise in year one.

Young captured the narrative momentum in the last half of last season, and he appears to have the major tools that will help him turn into that invaluable volume scoring lead ball-handler that every elite team needs. But he hasn’t fully arrived yet, and he still needs to prove that he can perform those major aspects of his skill set consistently. But he also needs to improve as a finisher, because that is the backbone of a lead ball-handler’s threat. Shots at the rim are the most efficient shots on the court, and that threat is what creates the rest of the offensive options in an offense. As good as Young’s shooting could be, and as good as his passing skill is, it’s finishing that is ultimately going to decide whether Young becomes a true NBA revolutionary, or the captain of a team with a very clear ceiling.

The insider’s perspective

by Chris Guest

After a meteoric rise to fame in college, Trae Young somehow lived up to – or even exceeded – the immense hype in his rookie year, bringing heaps of hope for the future for Atlanta Hawks fans the world over. Ice Trae put forth 19.1 points per game and 8.1 assists per contest in his rookie year, something that only Oscar Robertson and Damon Stoudamire have done in rookie seasons in NBA history. If Trae were to up that production to 20 points and 10 assists per game, he would match a feat accomplished only 27 times in NBA history by only 12 other players. The future is bright!

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