Why Darren Waller can be a top 3 fantasy football TE

Why Darren Waller can be a top 3 fantasy football TE

In fantasy football, tight end has been a barren wasteland of a position for more than a couple years. Outside of elite options like Gronk, or Antonio Gates, there was very rarely enough depth to have a mediocre or above tight end on every team. This year, the state of the position has changed. The emergence of consistent studs, like Zach Ertz and Travis Kelce, as long as young guns vying for the top spot, like George Kittle or OJ Howard. There is now some depth at the position, although there is still a clear top three to many people: Travis Kelce, George Kittle, and Zach Ertz.

Coming into the season, it would have been very hard to argue with these rankings. Kelce maintained his spot at the top of the best offense in the NFL, and an injury to Tyreek Hill should only bolster his chances. George Kittle had a quiet week one, but nonetheless had two touchdowns called back, and continues to be in a great situation with immense talent.

Zach Ertz, the consensus number three, looks weak on that pedestal though. Much of his success last season was due to a career-high 156 targets. That number was clearly unsustainable, with the Philly coaching staff saying as much. Targets are everything for fantasy football value, and any decrease, no matter how small, hurts him.

A slight reduction in targets may not be all that is in store for Ertz. The addition of DeSean Jackson and the emergence of Dallas Goedert, as well as the investment in the run game, with Miles Sanders and Jordan Howard, forecast a much larger reduction in role than predicted. He got 7 targets in week 1, and in a shootout of that size, it is safe to say 7 is the relative week to week ceiling. He may get more in some weeks, but this is the relative cap.

Ertz can still be productive at that rate, and there are multiple others vying for the throne of top three tight end. OJ Howard promises a challenge as he is poised in a great Bruce Arians offense, regardless of what week one said. Evan Engram is another player who should get plenty of targets and has lots of talent.

While these players are all quite talented, I am going to argue that the third-place fantasy football tight end at the end of the season with be Oakland Raider TE Darren Waller. Waller is a relatively unknown player, although hype has begun to build up on him over the last couple of weeks.

Waller immediately presents a tough matchup to any defense, as he is 6’6, but still possesses elite 4.46 40 yard speed. This puts Waller into a small echelon of players that present such a unique threat of size and speed.

Coach Jon Gruden agrees with that assessment. After a week one showing against a tough Denver Broncos defense where Waller went for 7 catches and 70 yards on 8 targets, Gruden emphasized that they would continue to get the ball into Waller’s hands as much as possible and that he was a special talent.

Jared Cook was quietly the TE5 in PPR leagues last season for the same Oakland Raiders offense. He did this on 101 targets, which is an average of just over 6 targets a game. There is no reason Waller can’t get at least this many targets, as the Raiders don’t have any other mouths to feed, and they likely want to see what they have in the young TE.

As a whole, the Raiders had 91 TE receptions last season. This number was good enough to be fifth-most in the NFL. With Waller, a TE who they are vocally excited about, this number could rise, and an increase into the low hundreds could see Waller vault quickly into the upper echelon of TE’s.

Much of this relies on Derek Carr. Carr is once again going to be a high volume quarterback, as the team is going to have to come from behind a lot once more. While Tyrell Williams should space the field well, Waller will be a necessary safety valve all over the field for Carr.

Waller’s versatility allows him to get chunk yardage from many different places (he lined up outside for a 25 yard gain on Monday). This should allow Gruden and Co. to scheme him open all over the field, using the conservative zone defenses to gain chunk yardage with Waller.

There is a lot to be excited about from a fantasy football perspective with Waller. If he is available on the waiver wire, place a claim for him. If you can snag him in a trade cheap, take the risk. Waller could win your fantasy football championship for you.

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