Fantasy football Week 3: Exploitable inefficiencies

While it may be easy to find out how many points or yards a defense has allowed, it’s not necessarily the best predictor of future success. In order to get more accurate fantasy predictions, sites like Football Outsiders, tease out as much variance as possible, in order to reveal the true story as we head towards Fantasy Football Week 3!

Football Outsiders uses a method known as DVOA. DVOA is a method of evaluating teams, units, or players. It takes every single play during the NFL season and compares each one to a league-average baseline based on the situation. Remember, we’re dealing with extremely small sample sizes in the NFL and Fantasy Football right now, but here are some exploitable match-ups you may want to consider this week.

*Note: With only two weeks of data, these efficiencies numbers are extremely skewed. As the season progress, they will become more predictive.

Defenses Struggling Against the Pass and Stout Against the Run

Pittsburgh: 29th Overall in Defensive efficiency (Pass: 30th, Run: 10th)

Oakland: 23rd Overall in Defensive efficiency (Pass: 27th, Run: 4th)

Philadelphia: 21st Overall in Defensive efficiency (Pass: 23rd, Run: 2nd)

Tampa Bay: 4th Overall in Defensive efficiency (Pass: 14th, Run: 1st)

Defenses Struggling Against the Run and Stout Against the Pass

Indianapolis: 19th Overall in Defensive efficiency (Pass: 15th, Run: 30th)

Buffalo: 12th Overall in Defensive efficiency (Pass: 7th, Run: 27th)

Tennessee: 8th Overall in Defensive efficiency (Pass: 5th, Run: 21st)

Efficiency Differences to Target

Baltimore (3rd in offensive efficiency and 9th in defensive efficiency) vs. Kansas City (2nd in offensive efficiency and 16th in defensive efficiency)

It’s no secret that the matchup between Baltimore and Kansas City will be the focal point of NFL DFS this week, however, even with the attention, players from these teams may still be undervalued. My approach to tournament lineups follows the Nassim Taleb, barbell approach, in which the lineup is balanced with extremely chalky players and extremely low owned players. This game is a perfect example of “good chalk”.

From an efficiency standpoint this game, clearly, checks that box. Both teams’ offensives have been lights out and rank significantly higher on the offensive side than the defensive side. Baltimore should be able to exploit and weak Kansas City defense, and as we know, Kansas City can put up a big number against nearly any defense that they face.

The concern for this game would normally come from the pace perspective. Last year with Lamar Jackson we saw Baltimore employ one the most run-heavy offenses in the league. Now, it would appear that Jackson has taken a massive leap in his passing ability, and offers a very real, dual-threat. Given how dominating both offenses have been so far, their ability to play with a lead and drain the clock towards the end of the game has plummeted their pace of play numbers. When analyzing their pace during a neutral situation, the story changes. Baltimore ranks 31st in Sec/Play overall, but 13th in a neutral situation. Kansas City ranks 19th in Sec/Play overall, but 8th in a neutral situation.

Now add in the big play ability that both of these quarterbacks have shown, and you can see why eating the chalk in this game should be the right move.

Cincinnati: 30th Overall in Defensive efficiency (Pass: 29th, Run: 31st)

Buffalo will return home after two successful road games, to take on the visiting Cincinnati Bengals. Cincinnati’s start to the year, on the other hand, is a bit different than Buffalo’s. After falling short in Seattle, in what most would still consider to be a valiant effort, they returned home, only to allow the 49er’s to hang 41 points on the board.

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The more you dig, you can see how their defensive struggles from last year may be highlighted again this season. After two weeks Cincinnati ranks 30th in overall defensive efficiency.

Buffalo is by no means known as an offensive powerhouse, like the teams in the paragraph above, however, it would appear as if Josh Allen, like Lamar Jackson, has taken a big step forward in the offseason. While his surrounding cast isn’t household names, additions such as John Brown, and Cole Beasley, have proven to be useful.

With Allen’s big-play ability and rushing upside, he’ll find himself near the top of fantasy scoring quarterbacks every week. How he’s used near the goal line shows flashes of a young Cam Newton. With Buffalo returning home I would expect the Bills to eclipse their projected team total of 25 points. I’ll be targeting players like Allen, Brown, Beasley, and Gore (pending the Singletary injury) in this matchup.

Next. Fantasy Football Week 3 First Look. dark

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