25-under-25: How Jayson Tatum will take the leap we expected last year

Jayson Tatum’s second season was something of a disappointment, but with a new-look roster, he can still take the leap the Boston Celtics expected.

Jayson Tatum defied every reasonable expectation as an NBA rookie. His jump shot wasn’t supposed to extend to the NBA 3-point line just yet, but there he was, knocking down 43.4 percent of his 3.0 long-range attempts per game. His defense was supposed to need work, yet there he was, filling in capably for the injured Gordon Hayward in a top-ranked defense.

He wasn’t supposed to be anything more than a rookie with potential, but there he was, dropping a career-high 28 points in his second-ever playoff series, eventually joining Kareem Abdul-Jabbar as the only rookies to ever record 10 or more 20-point games during their first playoff run.

And, as every single Boston Celtics fan was keen to remind you, HE WAS DOING ALL THIS DESPITE ONLY BEING 20 YEARS OLD.

His followup season, of course, wound up fitting in a very uncomfortable category. It was nowhere near a sophomore slump, as he posted career highs in points, rebounds, assists and steals per game to build on his rookie numbers, but it also wasn’t the breakthrough All-Star campaign many were anticipating.

Kyrie Irving’s leadership, having too many mouths to feed and all-around injury woes got the brunt of the blame for the Celtics’ disappointing 49-win season and second-round playoff exit in a year they were pegged as title contenders. But the 2018-19 campaign also proved Boston’s prized youngsters weren’t ready to carry the load, with Tatum and Jaylen Brown being the poster children of that hot-button issue.

Again, none of this is to say Tatum was bad in his second season. He averaged 15.7 points, 6.0 rebounds, 2.1 assists and 1.1 steals per game, was mostly good on defense and upped his free throw efficiency to 85.5 percent. Even as his 3-point touch dipped to 37.3 percent on 3.9 attempts per game, that was still perfectly respectable for a guy whose long-range efficacy was a question mark throughout the pre-draft process.

And yet, Tatum’s baby-step forward was not “the leap” Celtics fans were expecting. His 15.7 points per game ranked second on the roster but were a distant second to Kyrie Irving’s 23.8 per game. Without a true secondary option to rely upon, Boston’s offense sputtered in the postseason, ranking 12th in offensive rating (101.4) among all 16 playoff teams. He was particularly invisible in the second round, averaging 12.0 points per game on .343/.107/.616 shooting splits.

After that, his age went from the cherry on top (“He’s doing all this at only 20 years old!”) to an admission that he wasn’t a finished product yet (“Relax, he only just turned 21”).

Tatum shouldn’t be blamed for the Celtics’ offensive woes, but his shot selection was a problem all season long. As a rookie, he took 25.5 percent of his shots in the mid-range, making an impressive (and probably unsustainable) 43.7 percent of those looks. Last season, the distribution of his mid-range shots increased to 26.6 percent, but his efficiency came back down to earth, dropping to 36.6 percent.

Too often, he’d catch the ball on the 3-point line with a defender trying to close out, pump-fake, take two dribbles forward and settle for a long two. He also just plain took some bad shots from the mid-range on isolation looks (thanks, Kobe!).

Tatum’s shake-and-bake skill-set and his ability to create his own shot off pull-up jumpers were two of his biggest strengths heading into the pros. But according to NBA.com, he was in the 17th percentile on iso plays last year … despite ranking 26th in the league in isolation frequency (12.8 percent) among players who appeared in at least 41 games.

His shooting from the right elbow was notably poor, as he made a dismal 27.7 percent of his looks from that spot (league average was 40.5 percent). He wasn’t particularly reliable from the area above the free-throw line either, hitting just 35.1 percent of those looks (league average was 40.4 percent).

Kemba Walker will replace Kyrie Irving as the focal point of the offense and Boston’s leading scorer, but with Al Horford, Marcus Morris, Terry Rozier and Aron Baynes gone too, there will be plenty of shots available for the taking. That means if the Celtics want to remain a fixture near the top of the Eastern Conference standings, the onus will be on Tatum to become the star he was supposed to be last season.

That will require a more efficient Tatum — a tough ask for a guy who posted .450/.373/.855 shooting splits last year, but not an impossible one given his struggles with shot selection. There’s room for his mid-range jumper and his ability to create his own shot, but it has to come within the confines of the offense and with the knowledge that 3-point looks and shots at the rim are where his options should begin.

According to The Boston Globe‘s Adam Himmelsbach, trainer Drew Hanlen is aware of this, and has made it a point of focus for Tatum over this summer:

"“Driving and getting downhill through contact and being able to finish around the rim is our No. 1 focus,” Hanlen said. “And then consistency when he’s shooting off the dribble or off a full-speed move from the 3-point line. Those are our two things, just getting to the rim and drawing fouls, and finishing when you do get to the rim, and then consistency with threes. We just want him to be more efficient, and we think he will be.”"

Tatum shot a tidy 61.3 percent on attempts less than five feet from the basket last year, which was about league-average. Of his 1,036 total field goal attempts, 341 of them came from this area of the floor, so fine-tuning his ability to finish at the rim and draw fouls will only benefit him — and the Celtics offense — moving forward.

Getting to the foul line more would help diversify his game a bit more too. Boston ranked 29th in free throw attempts per game last season, with Tatum only taking 2.9 attempts a night. Rather than dribbling himself off the 3-point line into long 2s, Tatum’s focus should be pulling from 3 and getting to the rim more often. Once defenses adjust to his new approach, scrambling to run him off the line or playing back to cut off his driving lanes to the basket, that’s when his mid-range game will open up, and a bad shot will become a good one that harnesses his original strengths.

With Irving gone and a more team-oriented star point guard coming in, the Celtics can focus on empowering their young cornerstones once again. On the offensive end, that starts with Jayson Tatum, who, despite taking some bad shots last season, was still pretty damn efficient.

Losing an All-Star who shot 40 percent from deep in each of his last three seasons and replacing him with a career 35.7 percent long-range shooter like Kemba will cramp Boston’s spacing somewhat, which is why it’s paramount Tatum embraces his 3-point stroke more and learns the right balance between jacking from deep, getting to the rim/foul line and when to take the mid-range jumpers the defense eventually concedes.

Tweaking his shot selection in such a way is how a blunt offensive weapon sharpens into a blade that can hack its way through any defense — a terrifying concept for a burgeoning scorer who’s still only 21 years old.

The insider’s perspective

by Adam Taylor

Jayson Tatum displays poise and composure beyond his years, scoring at will in a multitude of ways. Having played a supporting role in his first two years, he is positioned to become the second or third option on offense this year. Visibly bigger heading into the season, he will become a menace in the lane, drawing fouls at will, which in turn will provide him with even more outside opportunities.

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