25-under-25: Myles Turner has arrived

Myles Turner has arrived as a floor-spacing, rim-protecting cornerstone. Can he build on a career-year and keep adding to his game?

Expectations for Myles Turner have been on a yo-yo for his first four seasons as a pro, careening up and down with the incorporation of each new data point. His freshman season at Texas revealed him to be a talented young big man but a potential project who might need time to adjust to the speed and athleticism of the NBA game. Those expectations were boosted with a dominant Orlando Summer League performance before a rookie season where the 19-year-old proved he was much more ready then we may have thought.

He built on that early success, averaging 14.5 points, 7.3 rebounds, 1.3 assists and 2.1 blocks per game in his second season, shooting 34.8 percent from beyond the arc and working himself into the back end of the “best young big of the future” discussion along with Karl-Anthony Towns, Nikola Jokic, Kristaps Porzingis and Joel Embiid. Heading into his third season, at the age of 21, he was ranked seventh in the first edition of The Step Back’s 25-under-25, landing immediately ahead of Bradley Beal and Devin Booker.

And then that yo-yo started rolling back towards the ground.

In his third season, Turner’s per minute counting stats fell almost across the board. He struggled with injury, appearing in just 65 games, and while his 3-point percentage increased to 35.7 percent it wasn’t the kind of jump that would fully unlock his potential as a rim-defending, floor-stretching unicorn at the 5. In addition, Victor Oladipo and Domantas Sabonis joined the roster with Oladipo supplanting Turner as the foundation of the future, and Sabonis’ rock-solid effectiveness standing in stark contrast to Turner’s inconsistency and indecisiveness.

At the end of that season, no one was comparing Turner to Embiid or Towns anymore and there was honest discussion among fans and media members about whether the Pacers should trade Turner and commit to Sabonis in the middle. In the 2018 edition of The Step Back’s 25-under-25, Turner dropped to 13th, behind players like Clint Capela, Jaylen Brown, Gary Harris and the one healthy ACL of Kristaps Porzingis.

And, once again, Turner’s developmental arc underwent a dramatic change of direction. Last season, he averaged 13.3 points, 7.2 rebounds and 1.6 assists per game. He led the league in blocked shots and made 38.8 percent of his 3-point attempts, once again flashing that unicorn potential. In the span of a few months, Turner changed his story from “asset the Pacers might need to sell high on” to “future Defensive Player of the Year candidate and indisputable cornerstone.”

Turner didn’t have a particularly strong showing for Team USA in the FIBA World Cup this summer but he’s forced the Pacers to try and commit to starting lineups with both him and Sabonis on the floor (for now) and even on a deep and versatile roster he’s one of the few obvious reasons the Pacers could be considered dark horse Eastern Conference contenders.

Turner has arrived as one of the most intimidating rim protectors in the league. In addition to his league-leading block totals opposing players shot just 54.4 percent on shots inside of six feet when Turner was the closest defender — a number better than Capela, Al Horford, Anthony Davis, Marc Gasol or Draymond Green. He was also much more aware and decisive in his defensive rotations and for the first time in his career had more blocks than personal fouls.

On the offensive end, Turner is still mostly a complementary piece. Even inside the arc, nearly 80 percent of his made baskets were assisted on and about a quarter of his shots were catch-and-shoot attempts from beyond the arc. Lifting his 3-point percentage to 38.8 percent on a career-high number of attempts was a big step last season but he still only averaged about three attempts per 36 minutes. Keeping that accuracy on an increased volume is going to be key for Turner this season, especially as the Pacers look for more ways to leverage him and Sabonis on the court together for more minutes.

Turner is 23 now and will turn 24 in March, meaning he has at least one more year of eligibility for the 25-under-25. Over his four-year career, we’ve seen pretty complete approximations of both his floor and his ceiling. Here’s hoping the yo-yo has stopped spinning and he can spend some time here, near the top, exploring what’s possible when everything is working as it should.

The insider’s perspective

by Fox Doucette

Myles Turner’s shotblocking continues to get better and better — his 8.4 block percentage led the NBA in 2018-19 and was the 16th-best season in NBA history since blocks were first kept as a stat in 1973-74. But that’s not what’s going to put him into the next level of players in 2019-20. It’s his 38.8 3-point percentage and career-best 9.0 rebounds per 36 minutes that point to Turner’s evolution into the quality stretch 5 the Pacers will need him to be, playing the same role in Indiana’s offense that Brook Lopez played alongside Giannis Antetokounmpo in Milwaukee’s offense last season. Turner isn’t a one-dimensional player anymore. Watching him evolve his game like a Pokemon will be fun for Pacers fans all season long.

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