College football Week 4 is packed with great matchups and upset possibilities. Who is in the most danger? We explore the projected win probabilities of each Top 25 team.
Welcome to Week 4, which features an absolutely loaded slate of big-time matchups. It’s a nice change of pace. Though Week 3 offered several exciting finishes and a few upsets, it lacked the star power we look forward to from Monday to Saturday. No more.
Stadiums will be rocking all weekend, including a Friday night highlighting two games featuring ranked teams. And Saturday, each of the three major television viewing windows features a matchup of ranked opponents, beginning with a Big Ten clash, followed by an SEC West showdown and capped off with a Top-10 showdown between Georgia and Notre Dame in Athens.
As always, we should expect the unexpected – at least on the surface. After all, projecting college football games involves probability, and even a team with a 99 percent chance of winning loses one out of 100 times (or so).
Each week, we use CFB Winning Edge Team Strength ratings to create a win probability for every Top 25 team, offering a sneak peek at the chances each ranked team goes down. Week 4 is packed, so let’s get to it.
No. 10 Utah at USC (Friday, Sept. 20)
USC’s stay in the Top 25 was a short one. The then-No. 24 Trojans lost to BYU 30-27 in overtime last week. A banged-up USC defense kept the game close, but true freshman quarterback Kedon Slovis threw three interceptions in his first road start.
Unranked again, the Trojans have an opportunity to knock off back-to-back ranked opponents in the Coliseum (having beaten No. 23 Stanford two weeks ago) as No. 10 Utah comes to town. Though the Utes have been far from dominant during a 3-0 run through non-conference play, Utah appears to be the Pac-12’s last best chance at a playoff bid.
Running back Zack Moss could carry it there, as the senior currently leads the conference in rushing with an average of124.3 yards per game. The defense has been solid as well, and leads the league and ranks in the top 10 nationally in both total defense (239.3 total yards allowed per game) and scoring defense (9.7 points allowed per game).
Air Force at No. 20 Boise State (Friday, Sept. 20)
Boise State has started slowly in each of its first three games this season, but true freshman quarterback Hank Bachmeier led the Broncos to wins in all three. The offensive line is a bit banged up and could be without two starting tackles for the second straight week, but the Broncos are deep at the offensive skill positions. Defensively, Curtis Weaver is one of the most impressive pass rushers in the nation.
Boise State has won two in a row in the series (after losing three straight from 2014-16), but this could be the best team Troy Calhoun has had in a while. Air Force is riding high after beating Colorado a week ago. Quarterback Donald Hammond III and running back Kadin Remsberg are as dangerous a one-two punch as there is in the Mountain West, and safety Jeremy Fejedelem isn’t far behind Weaver on the shortlist of the league’s best defenders.
Saturday, Sept. 21
Charlotte at No. 1 Clemson
With quarterback Chris Reynolds and running back Benny LeMay leading the way, Charlotte has been a pleasant surprise under first-year head coach Will Healy. The 49ers picked up home wins against Gardner-Webb and UMass, sandwiching a 41-point outburst in a loss to Appalachian State.
Of course, none of those teams is Clemson. The Tigers wouldn’t likely trade any of their scholarship players for one of Charlotte’s, so there’s no wonder Dabo Swinney’s team is nearly a six-touchdown favorite.
Southern Miss at No. 2 Alabama
Southern Miss was victorious in one of the most exciting games of the season to date, beating Troy 47-42 on the road last week. The Eagles’ relied heavily on the star receiving duo of Quez Watkins and Jaylond Adams, who combined for 289 receiving yards. Watkins scored twice as a receiver, and Adams found the end zone for the third time as a returner this season, as he scored on a 100-yard kick return in the fourth quarter.
Needless to say, Alabama will stay busy on defense and special teams in an effort to contain Southern Miss’ top two playmakers. It won’t help matters much that the Crimson Tide has been bitten by the injury bug early and often this season in the front seven. However, if the Eagles allowed 42 points to Troy, how many can we expect from Tua Tagovailoa, Jerry Jeudy, Henry Ruggs III and Najee Harris?
CFB Winning Edge Win Probability: Alabama, 98 percent
No. 7 Notre Dame at No. 3 Georgia
All eyes will be on Athens, Ga. Saturday, first for ESPN’s College GameDay to start the weekly festivities, and then in prime time for the Top-10 matchup between Georgia and Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish have an opportunity to for redemption – both for their loss to the Bulldogs in South Bend two years ago and for the disappointing showing on the national stage in last year’s College Football Playoff. Georgia aims to build its own playoff resume after missing out last season.
Both offenses are loaded and come in scoring an average of 99.8 points per game combined. While the Irish are thrilled with the performance QB Ian Book put together last week against New Mexico (360 passing yards, 5 TDs, 15.0 yards per attempt), he hasn’t seen a defense as fast and athletic as the Dawgs will put forth; at least, not since losing 30-3 to Clemson in the Cotton Bowl. Georgia ranks third nationally in scoring defense (7.7 points allowed per game), and in the top 10 in both total defense (243.0 yards allowed per game) and yards allowed per play (3.84).
Can Notre Dame stop the Dawgs? All-American candidates Alohi Gilman, and Julian Okwara, freshman phenom Kyle Hamilton and the rest of the Notre Dame defense – which currently ranks No. 120 in rush defense – will have its hands full with Georgia quarterback Jake Fromm, running back D’Andre Swift, and elite offensive line, and an emerging receiving corps led by true freshman sensation George Pickens.
No. 4 LSU at Vanderbilt
In years past, we would worry that an 11 a.m. kickoff in sleepy Vanderbilt Stadium would be a recipe for a slow start for the LSU Tigers. However, given the way the new-look offense has lit up scoreboards in the early weeks of 2019, it’s difficult to imagine Joe Burrow and Co. not marching up and down the field with ease.
Vanderbilt has had an extra week to prepare for the Bayou Bengals, but the Commodores have surrendered an average of 509.5 yards per game and 7.66 yards per snap (which rank No. 126 and No. 127 nationally, respectively) in losses to Georgia and Purdue. With a start like that, head coach Derek Mason better hope LSU sleepwalks through the first half.
Miami (OH) at No. 6 Ohio State
Ohio State has quieted most of its doubters through the first three weeks of the season and combined with Michigan’s underwhelming start, the Buckeyes have reemerged as the team to beat in the Big Ten.
Justin Fields has been everything fans hoped he would be, and J.K. Dobbins has blossomed into a potential Heisman candidate (Dobbins currently ranks fourth nationally with 425 rushing yards). Plus, the defense has played lights-out football since a late-game hiccup in Week 1. Expect one last Group of Five blowout before the Big Ten schedule heats up with a trip to Nebraska next week.
CFB Winning Edge Win Probability: Ohio State 96 percent
No. 8 Auburn at No. 17 Texas A&M
The undercard before the Notre Dame-Georgia main event is set for College Station, where Auburn will travel to take on a Texas A&M squad currently favored by more than a field goal. The Aggies should have an edge at quarterback with Kellen Mond, who has a very talented and deep set of receivers at his disposal. Auburn true freshman Bo Nix will make his first true road start at Kyle Field, and might be forced to play without his best receiver, Seth Williams, for the second consecutive game.
The Tigers have arguably the best defensive line in the nation, but superstar Derrick Brown only played just one series in last week’s tune-up against Kent State and is questionable to return against the Aggies. Nevertheless, Marlon Davidson earned SEC Defensive Lineman of the Week honors for the second time in three weeks, and there’s depth elsewhere on the unit.
Auburn has also suffered some knocks on the offensive line, which could shift the advantage into A&M’s favor. But the Aggies will rely on a true freshman at right guard, and another as the primary ball carrier following a season-ending injury to starter Joshua Corbin, so there are plenty of questions for both squads.
Tennessee at No. 9 Florida
Florida lost starting quarterback Feleipe Franks to a gruesome ankle injury last week, but backup Kyle Trask sparked the Gators in a 29-21 come-from-behind victory. Trask, who will make his first collegiate start against (and his first since his freshman year of high school) faces a tough task in an underrated Tennessee defense.
Though the Vols have disappointed during the opening weeks of the season, Tennessee has held its first three opponents to an average of 306 total yards per game, which ranks No. 38 in the country (just 5.3 yards and five spots behind the Gators). Tennessee also ranks 26th nationally having allowed 4.43 yards per game, which is tied with Alabama and 10 spots better than Florida thus far.
No. 11 Michigan at No. 13 Wisconsin
The first of three ranked-versus-ranked matchups kicks off at noon Eastern, 11 AM local time, in Madison. Wisconsin, who ranks No. 6 with a 95.06 Team Performance rating through the first three weeks of the season, has an opportunity to avenge last year’s 38-13 loss in Ann Arbor. Michigan, which entered the season as the Big Ten East favorite by many accounts, has underperformed those expectations thus far. Through two games, the Wolverines rank No. 40 in Team Performance (85.98).
Michigan has dealt with a variety of nicks to its new-look offense, including injuries that have kept starting receiver Donovan Peoples-Jones and left tackle Jon Runyan on the sidelines all season, and forced running back Tru Wilson to miss extended playing time as well. There are even whispers freshman Zach Charbonnet could be out this week.
Runyan is expected to return and will face a Wisconsin defensive line playing without tackle Bryson Williams for the second straight contest. The Badgers also lost starting safety Scott Nelson to a season-ending arm injury.
Thankfully for Wisconsin fans, the offense has excelled. The Badgers rank No. 3 in the nation in scoring (55.0 points per game), and No. 18 in total offense (517.0 total yards per game). Quarterback Jack Coan is currently the Big Ten leader in passing offense (282.0 yards per game) and has thrown five touchdowns without an interception while completing a conference-best 76.3 percent of his passes. Running back Jonathan Taylor, whose 118.5 rushing yards per game rank second in the league, is once again an early-season Heisman Trophy candidate.
It’s no surprise the Badgers surged in the polls after blowout victories in Weeks 1 and 2, and the oddsmakers are believers as well. However, though Wisconsin is favored officially, CFB Winning Edge still relies heavily on Michigan’s talent advantage (the Wolverines rank No. 6 in Roster Strength, compared to the No. 42 Badgers) and leans toward Jim Harbaugh’s squad on the road.
Oklahoma State at No. 12 Texas
Texas’ playoff hopes took a slight hit after the Longhorns lost to LSU in Week 2. However, if the Longhorns take care of business in Big 12 play, there’s still hope. Unfortunately, Texas has struggled to take care of business against Oklahoma State in recent seasons. The Horns have lost each of the last four meetings, including a 38-35 dagger in 2018.
This year could be more of the same. Cowboys All-American receiver Tylan Wallace leads all FBS players with 390 receiving yards and six touchdown catches, while speedster Chuba Hubbard leads the nation with 521 rushing yards and seven touchdowns on the ground. Redshirt freshman QB Spencer Sanders has posted a 7-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio while completing 67.2 percent of his passes and averaging 9.7 yards per attempt and has also run for 219 yards and a score. Together, the trio has led the Pokes to an average of 547 yards of total offense per game and 7.46 yards per play during a 3-0 start to the season.
But the Longhorns are talented enough to compete. Quarterback Sam Ehlinger almost single-handedly kept Texas in the game against LSU, and receiver Devin Duvernay has stepped up his play as a senior (which is especially big because 6-foot-6 target Collin Johnson has dealt with a nagging hamstring injury). But the defense – which ranks No. 104 in yards allowed per play (6.20) – will have its hands full.
No. 15 UCF at Pitt
UCF has a rare chance to beat back-to-back Power Five opponents, and the odds are good following the Knights’ 45-27 dismantling of Stanford in Week 3. UCF has elite speed capable of overwhelming Pitt in a similar fashion, and the Knights are actually the more talented team, currently ranked No. 33 in Roster Strength, compared to No. 56 Pitt.
True freshman quarterback Dillon Gabriel is a budding star and the Knights rank No. 4 nationally in net yards per play (plus-4.26), meaning Josh Heupel’s squad has clicked on both sides of the football. The Panthers, who played Penn State to the wire last week, rank No. 81 (plus-0.24).
No. 16 Oregon at Stanford
Speaking of Stanford, it’s clear our numbers were a little too high on the Cardinal in the preseason. Yes, injuries (especially along the offensive line) have played a role, but Stanford was completely outmatched against UCF. The most damning evidence: the Knights repeatedly attacked All-American cornerback Paulson Adebo, and won often enough to build a 38-7 lead before halftime. Yikes.
Things won’t get any easier against Oregon. The Ducks came up nine seconds short against Auburn in the season opener, but have beaten Nevada and Montana by a combined 112-9 over the last two weeks. Even without several of his top receiving options, quarterback Justin Herbert has excelled, completing 73.3 percent of his passes for 868 yards and 11 touchdowns without an interception. Penn State transfer Juwan Johnson might be healthy enough to make his debut in Week 4, but the Ducks might be without starting center Jake Hanson.
Still, (sigh), CFB Winning Edge just can’t quit the Cardinal. Stanford is still talented on paper (or more specifically, on spreadsheets), and we project a close game on The Farm.
UCLA at No. 19 Washington State
Guess what? Mike Leach found another excellent quarterback. In case you haven’t heard, the new guy is fifth-year senior Anthony Gordon, who played in three games and attempted five passes for the Cougars before making his first career start in the 2019 opener. To the surprise of absolutely no one, Gordon is the early national leader in passing yardage (1,324 yards) and is tied for the lead with 12 touchdown passes.
UCLA fans could only dream of such things. The Bruins have averaged 4.11 yards per play this season, which sits dead last on the FBS leaderboard. UCLA has scored a grand total of 42 points (exactly 14 in each of its three losses). Washington State surpassed 50 points in both Week 1 and Week 2 and settled for a 31-24 victory over Houston last Saturday.
Old Dominion at No. 21 Virginia
Virginia Tech has tormented Virginia over the last 15 years, but Old Dominion has proven to be a hellish thorn in the side of the Hokies in both 2018 and 2019. What does that mean for the Monarchs trip to Charlottesville Saturday? Probably not much.
Quarterback Bryce Perkins led the Cavaliers to a dramatic come-from-behind victory over Florida State last week, which set the Hoos up nicely for a run at the ACC Coastal. Unless the hangover effect is huge, Virginia should have no issue putting away an Old Dominion squad that barely beat Norfolk State 24-21 before scaring the life out of Virginia Tech in Week 2.
CFB Winning Edge Win Probability: Virginia 88 percent
No. 22 Washington at BYU
The Washington offense, which was held in check in a 20-19 loss to Cal the previous game, got back on track during a 52-20 victory over Hawaii in Week 3. BYU, like Hawaii, before it met the Huskies, has pulled off back-to-back upsets against Power Five opponents, turning the trick in overtime against both Tennessee and USC.
The quarterback battle should be one to watch, with Washington’s Jacob Eason (who has completed 69.2 percent of his passes for 773 yards and seven touchdowns with just one interception), squaring off against Zach Wilson (720 passing yards, two touchdowns, two interceptions).
The Cougars have struggled to keep Wilson clean in the pocket (BYU has allowed eight sacks), but the sophomore is capable of making plays with his feet; his 16-yard touchdown run gave the Cougars a 27-24 lead over USC late in the fourth quarter.
No. 23 Cal at Ole Miss
Cal may be ranked, but the Bears are a clear underdog in the matchup with Ole Miss in Oxford. Las Vegas and offshore oddsmakers initially listed the matchup as a pick ‘em, but the Rebels are now favored by nearly a field goal.
Why? First of all, Ole Miss is more talented. The Rebels rank No. 28 in Roster Strength and No. 25 in average 247Sports rating, while Cal ranks No. 69 and No. 59, respectively. Plus, there’s the 2,169-mile travel distance from Berkeley to Oxford to consider, as well as the 11:00 AM local kickoff time (Body clock: 9:00 AM Pacific).
But, as we’ve already seen when Cal beat Washington in a lightning-delayed Pac-12 opener, the Bears are capable of pulling off an upset on the road in adverse conditions. And with one of the top-rated linebackers in the country in Evan Weaver and an excellent secondary, Ole Miss faces a tough task.
Colorado at No. 24 Arizona State
Colorado pulled off a dramatic upset win over Nebraska in Week 2 but faltered in its next game as a favorite against Air Force. Could Arizona State be set up for a similar letdown following last week’s win over Michigan State? It’s unlikely.
Though the Sun Devils still have major personnel concerns on both the offensive and defensive lines, Arizona State has excelled keeping opponents off the scoreboard. Herm Edwards’ defense has allowed exactly seven points in each of its first three games, and the average ranks No. 2 in the country behind only Wisconsin (which has yet to surrender a single point).
While the Sun Devils have yet to face a playmaker like Laviska Shenault or quarterback Steven Montez, Colorado has yet to see a defense as stingy as ASU’s.
SMU at No. 25 TCU
Arizona State could learn a lesson from TCU, which designed a defensive game plan predicated on taking Purdue superstar Rondale Moore out of the picture. It worked as the Horned Frogs won 34-13 and held Moore to 25 yards on four offensive touches.
Head coach and defensive play-caller Gary Patterson might use a similar tactic against SMU – though the Mustangs have a dynamic duo of receivers in James Proche and Reggie Roberson, Jr. to contend with. And though quarterback Shane Buechele is still adjusting to his new surroundings, he’s older and more experienced than Purdue signal caller Jack Plummer, who made his first career start last week against the Frogs.
TCU quarterback Max Duggan might be in line for his first start this week after taking over for Alex Delton, but he’ll have a strong running game to rely on with the two-headed tandem of Darius Anderson and Sewo Olonilua, who each surpassed the 100-yard mark on the ground against the Boilermakers, and one of the most talented receivers in the Big 12 in Jalen Reagor.