NFL DFS game by game breakdown: Week 3

NFL DFS: Detroit Lions @ Philadelphia Eagles

Detroit Lions

I don’t expect the Lions ownership to be all that high this week, but I don’t think that should deter you from using them. This Eagles defense is bad, especially their secondary, especially against WR1s as outlined by Ian Hartitz of Rotoworld:

This should have Kenny Golladay licking his chops, as he’s seen 19 targets over the first two games and recorded a touchdown in each. Because of this production out of Golladay, we’ve seen a decrease in the involvement of Marvin Jones Jr., as he’s recorded only 10 targets over the first two games. With that said, he’s still a viable big-play threat, as he only trails Golladay on the team in aDOT (14.3). Pairing one of them with Matthew Stafford in a tournament seems like a logical idea against such an attackable secondary.

T.J. Hockenson saw a massive dip in production in week 2, which leads me to remind you that we shouldn’t hang our hats on week 1. He faced a Cardinals defense that bleeds production to tight ends and the game also went to overtime, providing more opportunity. This Eagles defense was actually effective against TEs last season, allowing the 3rd fewest points in the league.

With the release of C.J. Anderson, we will hopefully see an increased workload for Kerryon Johnson. This matchup, however, is not one in which I’ll actively target him, as the Eagles ranked 9th in rush DVOA last season.

Cash Plays: Golladay

GPP Plays: Jones Jr., Stafford

Philadelphia Eagles

The look of this offense changed at the flip of a switch last week, as they lost both Alshon Jeffery, Dallas Goedert and DeSean Jackson. All three of them missed practice on Wednesday, leading me to believe at least 1 if not all of them will sit on Sunday.

If that’s the case, we can expect massive workloads for Zach Ertz and Nelson Agholor. Ertz saw a team-high 16 targets in week 2, but was only able to muster an 8-72-0 line. Even with the lackluster production, this is the type of volume that I will chase all day in cash games. Agholor played 96% of the team snaps in week 2 with the injuries and turned it into an 8-107-1 line on 11 targets. He’s way too cheap across the industry and if these players sit, he’s an elite cash value. While Carson Wentz will have less than normal to work with, he still has more than enough upside to warrant tournament consideration. The lack of options, however, takes me off of him in cash.

J.J. Arcega-Whiteside is an interesting piece that could see a massive uptick in volume if the ailing receivers are held out, as he saw 93% of the offensive snaps last week. While he only saw 4 targets, his aDOT of 22.5 yards on those targets show that he could have some massive upside.

The backfield is still a bit of a jumbled mess, but Miles Sanders has remained atop the depth chart in terms of snaps, but the 10-8 split in carries with Jordan Howard last week leaves a ton to be desired. With that said, the Eagles are -6.5 favorites and Sanders is under $4,000 on DraftKings. If this game goes as Vegas expects it should, we could see more Sanders as they try and milk the clock late in the game.

Cash Plays: Ertz, Agholor (if Jeffery out)

GPP Plays: Arcega-Whiteside (if Jeffery and Jackson out), Sanders (DK), Wentz