NFL DFS: Atlanta Falcons @ Indianapolis Colts
Atlanta Falcons
After a dismal week 1, the Falcons bounced back in a big way last week led by the aerial attack of Matt Ryan and Julio Jones, who recorded another pair of touchdowns. It’s become apparent that the Falcons are making it a point to get Jones into the end-zone, as he’s already scored 3 times this season. He’ll continue to command the majority of the targets for Atlanta and while the Colts secondary is much-improved, he’s still an elite GPP play and fine cash play, I just don’t think you need to go there.
Calvin Ridley was another receiver who made an impact last week and has only seen 2 fewer targets than Jones this season but has caught 13% more of the passes thrown his way. He makes for a fine mid-tier option in tournaments, but I don’t see a need to go here in cash given the heap of other receiving options on the slate. Much like Ridley, Austin Hooper has been a serviceable mid-tier option and ranks 3rd on the team in target share.
Devonta Freeman has been downright brutal to kick off the season. He’s averaged just over 2 yards per carry and has failed to see more than 14 touches in a game. His involvement in the passing game last week is a bright spot, but the fact that the Falcons have also prioritized Ito Smith in the red-zone (2 red zone rushes to Freeman’s 1) cap his ceiling. Until he can show that he’s capable of producing RB1/2 numbers, he’s a massive fade in all formats.
Cash Plays: Jones
GPP Plays: Ridley, Hooper
Indianapolis Colts
All things considered, Jacoby Brissett has impressed through his first two starts with the Colts this season. He’s posted a 69.1% completion rate (9.1% above career average) and a serviceable 5:1 TD:INT ratio. He could be an overlooked value play against a Falcons’ defense that ranked 29th in pass DVOA last season. Stemming off of that, T.Y. Hilton has easily been his favorite receiver, racking up an elite 27.27% target share with the next closest player being 15% behind him. On top of that, he leads the team in red-zone target% (40%), leading to 3 touchdowns.
Another player that the Colts have relied on his running back Marlon Mack. He’s dominated the usage out of the backfield, logging 47 total touches through the first two weeks, with the next closest player being Nyheim Hines at 11. Their strong offensive line has helped Mack rumble to over 2.8 yards after contact and average 112.5 yards on the ground per game. Atlanta ranked 30th in rush DVOA last season and ranks 19th in 2019 through the first two weeks, making this an exploitable matchup in GPPs.
Eric Ebron got back on the board last week with a touchdown, but has only commanded a 12.73% target share and a 57.14% completion rate in large part due to his stone hands. There are better options at tight end on this slate.
Cash Plays: Hilton
GPP Plays: Brissett, Mack