NFL DFS game by game breakdown: Week 3
By Joe Metz
NFL DFS: New York Jets @ New England Patriots
New York Jets
Much like the Dolphins writeup, it’s hard to find a single player that I want to hang my hat on with the Jets now that both Sam Darnold and Trevor Semien are out. With that being the case, it’s impossible to trust any of the receivers this week, especially against a secondary that’s only allowed 3 points through the first two weeks of the season.
The only play that I would consider in GPPs is Le’Veon Bell. He was quite literally the only source of production for the Jets last week and saw a whopping 31 touches (21 carries, 10 catches). If he maintains this type of involvement, it’ll be hard for him not to have a safe floor from volume alone. The touchdowns may be few and far between, but he has a safe enough floor and massive ceiling to warrant being an elite GPP play.
Cash Plays: none
GPP Plays: Bell
New England Patriots
The Patriots were, expectedly, clicking on all cylinders on Sunday. To the surprise of many, however, Antonio Brown immediately stepped in as the most impactful receiver on the team. In week 2, Tom Brady spread the ball around, but Brown was the only player with a target share north of 10% (11.11%). He ended up catching 4 of 8 targets and recording a touchdown. While the line is rather modest, the fact that he had 8 targets and a touchdown on only 33% of the team snaps paints a picture of the massive ceiling here. He’s still too cheap for his role and makes for a great play in all formats.
Brown’s production took away from Julian Edelman and Josh Gordon, but the former still saw a 92% snap share in week 2 and only recorded 1 less target than Brown. Gordon saw 1 less target than Edelman, but his completion rate was only 33%, in large part due to the fact that he’s more so a big-play threat than the possession receiver Edelman is.
Sony Michel is another player to keep your eyes on here given the positive game script we can expect. In the blowout over the Dolphins, Michel saw 21 touches and averaged over 4 yards per carry with a score. He played 49% of the team’s snaps, maintaining a healthy lead over the rest of the backfield and his 21 touches were 16 more than the next closest back (Rex Burkhead). Should we see a similar script (and I expect we will), Michel should be in line for another hefty workload, making him a great mid-tier play.
Cash Plays: Brown, Michel, Patriots D/ST
GPP Plays: Edelman, Gordon, Brady