25-under-25: Donovan Mitchell vs. expectations

It’s really easy to get excited about the 2019-20 Utah Jazz and Donovan Mitchell is right in the middle of that excitement.

The team has one of the top 10 coaches in the league in Quin Snyder. They have one of the league’s best defensive backbones in Rudy Gobert. Their collection of role players includes all of the types of players other teams salivate over. They added Mike Conley, a proven veteran point guard here to try to put them over the top. And at the center of it all is Donovan Mitchell, the team’s prodigy and leading scorer, here to tie everything together. In the year that the Warriors appear ready to release their stranglehold on the Western Conference, Utah has to feel good about their potential to compete for a title.

Mitchell is in this spot because he’s exceeded expectations in nearly every category in his first two years in the league. His first year was all smiles and rainbows, as Mitchell went from the 13th pick in the 2017 NBA Draft to scoring 20.5 points per game and leading a 48-win team in scoring. The presence of Ben Simmons kept him from winning Rookie of the Year, but only barely. In his second season, Mitchell struggled early on with efficiency, but post-All-Star break, he averaged 26.7 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 4.6 assists per game while posting a 58.1 true shooting percentage. In terms of future star indicators as a shooting guard, you’d be hard-pressed to find a better resume than Mitchell’s.

For that reason, it’s assumed he will continue that upward trajectory this year as the stakes get higher and the expectations get bigger. Leading the team in offensive responsibility should be a given. Improved efficiency is expected, as Conley and Bogdanovic should inject diversity and reliability into the Utah supporting cast. It would be a shock if he didn’t make his first All-Star appearance. The Jazz are going to be expected to be among the West’s elite teams, especially if a superteam like the Warriors, Lakers, or Clippers falters early. Mitchell is expected to carry the Jazz to at least a competitive second-round series, and considerably more locally.

If that seems like a lot, it’s because it is. Most players entering their third year don’t have this type of expectations. Year three is when players that will become stars start to recognize their potential, but it’s far from a given that it will be fully realized. Giannis Antetokounmpo was just starting to put things together in his third season. Blake Griffin actually suffered statistical regression in his. James Harden was a sixth-man on a Finals team, still yet to fully weaponize his skill set, and Kyrie Irving led a 33-win team in his third year. Damian Lillard and Anthony Davis probably had the best third seasons of any recent star, and both of their seasons still ended by getting hit in the kneecaps in the playoffs by Grit-and-Grind Grizzlies and the Warriors, respectively. Lillard’s the only player who even approached their peak from this list, and he was a year older than Mitchell.

It’s also worth remembering that growth curves aren’t linear. We normally think of development as a linear curve — Player A starts in one place, gets better in year two, improves again in year three, etc. But it doesn’t always happen like that, and there are a lot of reasons that Mitchell could either plateau or even regress this coming year. He could struggle to adapt to the new offensive structure with Conley and Bogdanovic, and there’s still the threat of his defense not improving, which is one thing that didn’t really happen last year. Mitchell could slip back to 20-21 points per game, 35 percent shooting from 3, and around 3.5 assists per game next year, and it wouldn’t be shocking. And when you consider the rest of the West, this Jazz team could be significantly improved even if Mitchell doesn’t meet expectations … and still win around 48 games and lose in the first round.

If that happens, the public opinion around Mitchell could sour really quickly. This happens like clockwork to budding stars who come out of the gates hot — expectations build, and build, and build, until the first time the player doesn’t clear the bar, and then things turn. We expect Mitchell to continue to develop like Kobe or Dwyane Wade, but the path of Karl-Anthony Towns is much more likely. Towns, if you’ll remember, started out with an amazing rookie season after being deemed a nearly perfect prospect, but lost that goodwill when his defense didn’t get better. Even if his perception has rebounded post-Jimmy Butler, he still doesn’t have the clout he had after his rookie year. Mitchell could run into the same issue if he doesn’t improve, or if Utah doesn’t meet their lofty goals. He’s also at more of a risk than others of this, given how his rookie hoodie and the, um, problematic reputation of Utah fans have already colored public perception around Mitchell.

Donovan Mitchell is a future star in the NBA. He is too versatile and prolific as a scorer to not at least be in the conversation. But for Mitchell and the Jazz to meet expectations this season, they need Mitchell to be that this year. Mitchell has to continue to progress to stay in the good graces of public opinion, but for the Jazz to truly compete in the way that their fans expect, he needs to go even beyond that. He could actually do that! It’s September, and anything is still possible for the next month. But the court of public opinion is a relentless beast, and the clock is going to start ticking on the perception of Mitchell’s promise as soon as the first game tips.

Mitchell’s going to have some big battles in the Western Conference this season. But his biggest battle this year won’t be with the Lakers, or Clippers, or Warriors. It will be with the expectations placed on him, and the reaction to how he performs.

The insider’s perspective

by Ryan Aston

In two years’ time, Donovan Mitchell has elevated himself from fringe lottery pick status to a nice spot as the league’s ultimate gentleman phenom; a guy just as likely to throw it down or drop 30 as he is to give you pair of free kicks or crash your Fourth of July BBQ. Next season, though, things are going to get real serious. Mitchell now has a singular mission: lead a talented, veteran team with big-time aspirations — and expectations — to the promised land.

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