25-under-25: What’s next for Karl-Anthony Towns?

Karl-Anthony Towns is undeniably great, but there are still two big questions about his future with the Minnesota Timberwolves.

Karl-Anthony Towns is unquestionably very good. He’s a 23-year-old seven-footer who can score from anywhere on the floor and do anything he’s asked to do on that end. That includes 3-point shooting, where three seasons’ worth of data says that he’s a good 3-pointer shooter. Not passable, like some other stretch bigs; he’s legitimately good. There’s certainly a case to be made that Towns is the young NBA big with the most offensive upside — more than Nikola Jokic, more than anyone.

But still, there are questions about Towns and what his future looks like — questions that, if answered incorrectly, could keep him from winning like some of his counterparts have.

Under his control is his defense. It’s always been the biggest flaw in his game, and although it’s showed signs of promise, it remains the case. Just two seasons ago, he was the league’s worst defensive center as rated by Defensive Real Plus-Minus. The last two seasons, though, he’s been rated as a positive by the same metric. And yet there’s still a gap between him and the league’s other standout young centers.

This isn’t all on him. The Minnesota Timberwolves as a team were in the bottom third of the league in defensive rating last season, per NBA.com. There were some good defenders on the team — notably Robert Covington — but the 2018-19 Wolves were not exactly overflowing with good defensive talent, especially when considering where Andrew Wiggins is in his career right now. Moving forward, the idea would be to get more plus defenders on the perimeter (Jarrett Culver, this year’s first round pick should be that) and simplify Towns’ role in the back so he can thrive, especially considering how much responsibility he has on the offensive end.

The other question about Towns is what the Wolves are doing to build around him. He’s locked into a five-year, $190 million deal that, unless things goes awry, gives new franchise architect Gersson Rosas time to put the right pieces around Towns as he gets closer to his prime. (Remember: Towns, despite feeling like a known quantity, is only 23 and theoretically still working toward his peak). That deal should mean that Rosas, a Daryl Morey disciple, won’t be rushing into anything that is aimed at a short-term fix.

But there’s also no way around it: Rosas does not have an easy job ahead of him. The cap sheet isn’t a total mess, but it’s not a clean slate either. The Gorgui Dieng contract, which runs through next season, is certainly above what value he’s actually providing and is likely to provide this year and next. And then there’s the Wiggins contact, which runs through the 2022-23 season and is likely to remain the second-largest deal on the Wolves’ books behind Towns. Unless Wiggins has a complete reversal of what he’s been, that deal is a significant obstacle for Rosas to work out.

The good news for Rosas and Towns is that there are some good things on the roster. Covington for under $12 million is excellent value. Jake Layman was solid in Portland last year and getting a shooter for under $4 million per year is a nice value deal. Jordan Bell and Treveon Graham are smart, cheap one-year bets by Rosas. Better yet, Jeff Teague’s deal is up after next season and they’ll have at least a little bit of cap space to work with. Perhaps Rosas can find something akin to Minnesota’s pursuit of D’Angelo Russell this summer to give Towns more help.

The only thing that’s really clear here is that having Towns and figuring out how to build him up is a good problem to have. Even if there are questions about what comes next — some of which he can control and some of which he can’t — KAT is worth it.

The insider’s perspective

by Ben Beecken

Karl-Anthony Towns has been on back-to-back All-Star teams and narrowly missed a second consecutive All-NBA selection with a late charge. After finishing last season on a tear, Towns must prove that his improvements on defense are lasting and that he can do his part to carry his squad to a playoff berth in 2020.

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