DraftKings NFL GPP pivots: Week 3 – truth hurts
By Dan Palyo
DraftKings NFL GPP pivots: Running Backs
Chalk: Ezekiel Elliot, Dalvin Cook, Christian McCaffrey, Austin Ekeler
Pivots: Aaron Jones, David Johnson, Peyton Barber
I just want to start with this statement – the chalk is strong at running back this week. Using three of those four backs listed in cash is really ideal and that group of backs is really going to dominate ownership in GPPs, too, and for good reason. FanShare projects all four of these backs around 20% or higher this week on DraftKings.
But I wouldn’t be doing my job if I didn’t give you some guys who have a chance to outperform the chalk at significantly less ownership. Remember, anything can happen in a football game. If you try to go over the field on Zeke and have 60% of him in your GPPs and he gets hurt or even just fails to find the end zone then you’re in trouble.
I’m definitely not saying to go over the field on plays you feel strongly about, but my preferred method most times is go under the field on popular cash-game plays.
Aaron Jones is my top pivot at the running back position this week. After a disappointing week one performance against a tough Chicago defense, he bounced back in a big way with 116 yards rushing on 23 carries against the Vikings last week. Even more encouraging for his fantasy outlook was the four receptions on six targets.
Jones was excellent in the second half of last season for the Packers once he earned the starting gig, averaging 5.5 yards per carry down the stretch. With so few “workhorse” backs in the league, you have to love Jones here against Denver in a neutral match-up if the Packers are going to feature him like the did last week.
What I really like about Jones in this Green Bay offense is that he is going to see a lot of nickel and dime defenses with the Packers ability to establish their passing game. With Jones being the single set back in three-receiver sets, he’s facing a “stacked box” only 5.6% of the time so far this season (courtesy of FantasyData).
A “stacked box” is defined as a play in which there are 8 or more defenders are in the box. Compare that number for Jones to 41% for Saquon Barkley who defenses can key on with the lack of options in the passing game for the Giants.