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NASCAR DFS picks 9/21/19: Federated Auto Parts 400

By A.J. Fagerlin

RICHMOND, VA - APRIL 13: Kevin Harvick, driver of the #4 Mobil 1 Ford, takes the green flag to start the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Toyota Owners 400 at Richmond Raceway on April 13, 2019 in Richmond, Virginia. (Photo by Sean Gardner/Getty Images)
RICHMOND, VA - APRIL 13: Kevin Harvick, driver of the #4 Mobil 1 Ford, takes the green flag to start the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Toyota Owners 400 at Richmond Raceway on April 13, 2019 in Richmond, Virginia. (Photo by Sean Gardner/Getty Images) /
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LAS VEGAS, NV – SEPTEMBER 15: Martin Truex Jr (19) Joe Gibbs Racing (JGR) Toyota Camry leaps out of his car after winning the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series – South Point 400 at the Las Vegas Motor Speedway Sunday, September 15, 2019, in Las Vegas, NV. (Photo by Sam Morris/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) NASCAR DFS
LAS VEGAS, NV – SEPTEMBER 15: Martin Truex Jr (19) Joe Gibbs Racing (JGR) Toyota Camry leaps out of his car after winning the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series – South Point 400 at the Las Vegas Motor Speedway Sunday, September 15, 2019, in Las Vegas, NV. (Photo by Sam Morris/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) NASCAR DFS /

For the second week of the NASCAR playoffs, the Cup Series heads to Richmond. Which drivers will come through for NASCAR DFS players and possibly advance to the next round? Here are my picks for the Federated Auto Parts 400.

NASCAR DFS Top Contenders

Martin Truex Jr. 

Fresh off of a victory at Las Vegas, locking in his spot in the next round of the playoffs, I think Martin Truex Jr. has a great chance to repeat this week at Richmond.

First, Truex won the first race at the track this season back in April. He led the most laps and finished third and second in the first two stage before ultimately grabbing the checkered flag. In this race a season ago, Truex won each of the first two stages and led the most laps before Kyle Busch beat him to victory in the final stage, settling for a third-place finish.

In final practice, Truex paced the field with the fastest lap of 22.287 seconds around the 3/4 mile D-shaped oval. He also had the sixth-best 10-lap average before qualifying eighth for the race on Saturday night (race is SATURDAY NIGHT and lineups lock at 7:30 pm EST).

After securing his spot in the next round, Truex can afford to be all in on playoff points and winning the race. This could be a good or a bad thing for fantasy owners, as he could risk it at the end of a fuel mileage race, for example, and run out of fuel and finish towards the back. But I think that aggressive mentality will only help the 19 team. They can sit back, relax, and just go try to win another race. Some may suggest that they’re focus could already be on the tracks of the next round of the playoffs, but playoff points (earned by winning stages and races) are very valuable and will not be overlooked by the 19 squad.

Kyle Busch

Here we go again… Another week picking Kyle as a “top contender”. After finishes of 19th and 37th in his last two races, Kyle hasn’t exactly been one of those recently. But he has shown speed, and is due to put a whole race together. I thought about leaving him off this week, but I’d be remiss to do so and would kick myself if he went on to win. So here he is.

Kyle is still the most expensive driver in DFS and has the best odds to win the race according to Vegas Insider at 3-1. I’m likely fading Kyle this week in most of my lineups simply because of his price and the plethora of solid options out there for this race, but I wouldn’t be shocked if Kyle ended his drought and found himself in victory lane.

In the first practice, Kyle was fourth-quickest and had the best 10-lap average. After an okay final practice, Kyle qualified fourth for the race.

In the first race at Richmond this year, Kyle won the first stage, led over 100 laps and wound up finishing eighth. In this race last season, Kyle ended up in victory lane. He has two wins in the last five races at the track and leads all active drivers with 6 wins at Richmond.

Kyle certainly has the capability to dominate as this track despite his recent struggles. Even though he claims that he “can’t pass” at Richmond under NASCAR’s current aero package, he’ll only have to move up three spots to earn his seventh victory at Richmond Saturday night.

Denny Hamlin

If there is anyone that has been close to as good as Kyle Busch at Richmond, it’s Denny Hamlin. Denny has three victories at his home track and actually has led more laps than Kyle, or any other active driver at the short track.

Hamlin had a stretch of six top-five finishes before heading to Darlington, where he got caught up in a wreck and finished 29th. He’s finished sixth and 15th since then, but I think he is a lock to get back to the top five this weekend.

Hamlin was fast in both practice sessions and qualifying, finishing with the sixth-fastest lap at worst (first practice and qualifying). Hamlin had the best 10-lap average in final practice, which should bode well for his long-run speed come race night.

Hamlin clearly has a fast car, a great track-record at Richmond, and a salary that is low enough to make him a bit of a value pivot from guys like Kyle, Truex, and Harvick.

Joey Logano

Logano had a disappointing qualifying run, as he will roll off 28th this week. That is exactly why he is on this list and should be a great scorer in DFS. He should dominate with position differential.

If you look at practice times (second-fastest lap in first practice and eighth-best 10-lap average in final practice) it’s clear that Logano has a pretty fast car. If he hadn’t hit the wall during his qualifying run, I’m sure he would be starting much higher.

Last week at Las Vegas, Logano started 22nd and ended up winning the first stage of the race. He came up through the field that quickly. A ninth-place finish netted him 89.8 DraftKings points. That’s a pretty solid score for finishing ninth.

Joey could absolutely repeat that performance, starting slightly farther back and possibly finishing even higher. He was great in the first race this year at Richmond, finishing top two in all three stages, winning the second. If Logano can stay out of trouble, he should find himself in the top five by the end of the race, racking up tons of fantasy points on the way.

Honorable Mentions

Brad Keselowski, Kevin Harvick, Chase Elliott

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