College football rankings: 10 worst team performances of Week 4 – What’s wrong with Arkansas?

The college football ratings where being No. 1 is the worst. We take a closer look at the Terrible 10 team performances of Week 4.

“It’s not whether you win or lose, it’s how you play the game…”

The old cliché refers to sportsmanship, but it also has a place in college football analytics. Sometimes losing 31-24 is actually worse than losing 76-5 – especially if the first refers to an SEC squad falling at home to San Jose State.

Arkansas fell behind 24-7 in the first half of its game Saturday against the Spartans. Though the Razorbacks fought back to tie the game in the fourth quarter, the Hogs surrendered a five-play, 75-yard touchdown drive, capped off by a 19-yard scoring run from running back DeJon Packer.

San Jose State needed the final touchdown to surpass 100 rushing yards and finished with 101 yards on the ground on 24 attempts. However, the Spartans succeeded often through the air most of the evening as quarterback Josh Love finished with 402 passing yards, including 161 to Tre Walker, who recorded a game-high 12 receptions.

Arkansas posted similar statistics offensively, including 356 passing yards and 131 yards on the ground. The two teams shared similar first down totals and nearly split time of possession down the middle. The Razorbacks were slightly better on third down, converting 40 percent of opportunities (plus one of three on fourth down), while holding San Jose State to 4-for-13 combined on third and fourth downs.

But the biggest issue? Arkansas threw five interceptions, and the Spartans turned the ball over just once.

Another? Arkansas allowed 14 plays of 15 yards or longer, including each of the final three on the game-winning San Jose State touchdown drive. As a result, the Hogs were out-gained by an average of 0.95 yards per snap – nearly a full yard. For reference, minus-0.95 in net yards per play would rank No. 109 nationally this season.

Turnovers can be the difference in the outcome of a game. So can third-down conversions, or net yards per play. Every contest is different.

CFB Winning Edge attempts to assign a grade to every FBS team in each game it plays based on a variety of statistical factors. It then adds weight to that grade based on the strength of the opponent.

So, when San Jose State, which entered Week 4 ranked No. 128 overall in its Team Strength power rankings, beats an SEC squad fielding a roster than ranks in the Top 40 in several talent categories, including Roster Strength (No. 40) and average player rating according to the 247Sports Composite (No. 26), it means more than a MAC team losing by 71 to a College Football Playoff contender.

Each week, we dive into the numbers to count down the Terrible 10 – the worst game grades of the week according to CFB Winning Edge Team Performance ratings:

10. Akron Zips, 64.50

Akron lost 35-7 to Troy, which dropped the Zips to 0-4 overall and setting up an incredible, potentially championship-level Terrible 10 matchup in Week 5 with UMass. The Zips solidified their second-to-last standing in overall Team Performance rating (63.86) by posting a 64.50 grade against the Trojans.

Tom Arth’s squad was out-gained 485-242 in total offense, though because Troy held a 32-10 edge in first downs and controlled time of possession 41:17-18:43, the Zips were outgained just 0.27 yards per play, which softened the blow. Nevertheless, Akron managed just 39 rushing yards and an average of 2.2 yards per carry and completed 16 of 32 pass attempts for 203 yards – an average of 6.3 yards per attempt.

9. Arkansas Razorbacks, 64.25

Just when it appeared Arkansas had turned the corner toward respectability under Chad Morris, the Razorbacks were shocked by San Jose State at home.  After turning to Nick Starkel at quarterback, the Hogs took care of business against Colorado State in Week 3, winning 55-34 and posting an 85.86 Team Performance rating that easily ranked in the top half nationally.

However, Starkel threw five interceptions in a 31-24 loss to the Spartans.

8. New Mexico State Aggies, 63.56

New Mexico State only lost by three points in Week 4, which marked the closest margin defeat for the Aggies this season, and the closest of any team in this week’s Terrible 10. Doug Martin’s squad also showed some much-needed signs of life on offense after averaging 9.0 points per game in each of its first three contests.

Unfortunately, the defense surrendered 55 points for the third time this season. The Aggies had no answer for rival New Mexico defensively in a 55-52 loss. The Lobos racked up 598 yards of total offense, which pushed New Mexico State down to No. 129 in total defense (554.0 yards allowed per game), and No. 128 in yards surrendered per play (7.75) this year. Only Massachusetts (51.8 points allowed per game) ranks lower in scoring defense than the Aggies (51.5) this year.

7. ULM Warhawks, 63.50

Only Miami (OH), which was outgained by an average of 6.28 yards per play by Ohio State, had a worse performance in terms of net yards per play Saturday than ULM, which was outgained by an average of 5.34 yards per snap. Miami (OH) was also the only other FBS program to surrender more than 70 points in Week 4.

Of course, the RedHawks faced Big Ten favorite and College Football Playoff contender Ohio State. The Warhawks lost 72-20 to an Iowa State squad that comes in averaging 23.0 points per game and needed overtime to beat FCS opponent Northern Iowa in Week 1.

ULM allowed 10.66 yards per play, 14.8 yards per pass attempt, and 7.3 yards per carry. Cyclones quarterback Brock Purdy threw for 435 yards and three touchdowns (and one interception) and added three scored on the ground.

6. Connecticut Huskies, 63.27

UConn has shown improvement in 2018. The Huskies, who were historically bad defensively last season, have allowed just 324 yards of offense per game and 5.34 yards per play this season, which shows an improvement of 289.6 total yards per contest and 3.47 yards per snap. Unfortunately, the offense has been much worse.

In 2018, UConn averaged 378.4 yards per game and 5.34 yards per play – not great, but not terrible, either. This season, the Huskies have been held to 274.0 yards per contest and 4.26 yards per snap, which ranked No. 127 and No. 128 in the country, respectively. In its 38-3 loss to Indiana Saturday, the Huskies were out-gained 340-145 overall and by an average of 3.54 yards per play. Connecticut was held to 3.1 yards per pass attempt, 2.3 yards per run, and 2.79 yards per snap.

5. UTEP Miners, 62.77

With two weeks to prepare following a 38-3 loss to Texas Tech, UTEP showed signs of life early against Nevada. The Miners forced a three-and-out on the Wolf Pack’s first series and then marched down the field for a touchdown, covering 70 yards in 10 plays, to take a 7-0 lead. UTEP also led 14-7 in the second quarter and tied the game 21-21 in the third before Nevada pulled away to win 37-21.

The good news? The Miners scored on drives of 10, 10 and 17 plays. The bad? UTEP totaled 25 plays in its seven other offensive possessions.

Brandon Jones and Kai Locksley threw a combined three interceptions, which led to two easy Nevada touchdowns. Each was also picked off on the opening play of a series, which put the Miners in a huge hole defensively.

4. South Alabama Jaguars, 62.62

South Alabama scored 21 points against Nebraska in the season opener and followed with a solid 37-14 victory against Jackson State in Week 2. But the two games since have been disastrous. The Jaguars lost 42-6 to Memphis in Week 3, and were embarrassed again, 35-3, by UAB on Saturday.

South Alabama was just 2-13 combined on third and fourth downs against the Blazers and lost the turnover battle 2-0. UAB controlled the time of possession for more than 40 minutes and outgained the Jags 514-190 overall, and by an average of three yards per play.

Running back Tra Minter had just four touches in the loss to Memphis before exiting the game due to injury. He returned against UAB, but had a limited impact, recording 43 rushing yards and 34 receiving yards – both of which led the team. Inconsistency at quarterback has also been an issue. Cephus Johnson, Tylan Morton and Desmond Trotter combined to go 8-for-16 passing for 76 yards – an ugly 5.2 yards per attempt. Meanwhile, the South Alabama defense allowed 11.2 yards per pass attempt.

3. UTSA Roadrunners, 62.30

UTSA Frank Wilson has struggled to field a potent offense during his time in San Antonio. After the Roadrunners beat Incarnate Word 35-7 in the season opener, there was hope Wilson’s squad had taken a step forward on offense. However, the team has managed just 273.7 yards of total offense and 3.95 yards per play in the three contests against FBS competition since. Those figures rank No. 121 and No. 122, respectively, against FBS opponents.

North Texas held UTSA to 295 yards of total offense in its 45-3 loss. The Roadrunners were out-gained by an average of 3.56 yards per play, were outscored by an average of 0.61 points per play, and lost the turnover battle 4-0.

2. Massachusetts Minutemen, 61.89

UMass entered Week 4 ranked No. 122 out of 130 FBS teams in Roster Strength, according to CFB Winning Edge. The Minutemen averaged a .7787 rating in the 247Sports Composite recruiting ratings, which ranked No. 111 nationally. Both figures, while very modest, were both better than the competition, as Coastal Carolina ranked 130th and 127th, respectively. But looking at the statistics from the 62-28 UMass loss, one might assume Coastal Carolina held a significant talent advantage.

The Minutemen allowed 636 yards of offense – more than 300 both passing and rushing – and surrendered 35 first downs. Coastal Carolina averaged 11.2 yards per play and 7.3 yards per carry.

UMass ranks No. 130 overall in net yards per play (-3.86) this year and was out-gained by an average of 4.21 yards per play by the Chants, which was the fourth-worst performance of the week.  The most worrisome aspect of that, however? The three teams who fared worse played Ohio State, Iowa State and Alabama.

Now 0-4 on the season and having yet to post a Team Performance rating higher than its 66.32 debut in Week 1, Massachusetts has a solid grip on the bottom overall spot on the Terrible 10 with an average of 62.70 through the first quarter of the season.

1. Bowling Green Falcons, 61.56

Since beating Morgan State 46-3 in Week 1 (a wider margin of victory than Army had over the Bears, for what it’s worth), Bowling Green has lost its last three games by a combined score of 149-27, or an average of 50-9. And it’s not exactly like the Falcons have played the top teams in the nation during that span: Only Kansas State (which beat Bowling Green 52-0 in Week 2) is a Power Five program.

The 62-20 loss the Falcons suffered at the hands of Kent State Saturday resulted in the lowest Team Performance rating of the week, and the third-lowest of the 2019 college football season to date. Bowling Green was one of only five teams to be out-gained by more than four yards per play in Week 4.

The Falcons allowed 750 (!) yards of offense, including 10.4 yards per pass and 7.8 yards per carry, and 8.93 yards per play to a Golden Flashes squad that had posted a total of 858 yards in its previous three games.

Terrible 10: Team Performance rating year to date

121. FIU Panthers, 69.79
122. Bowling Green Falcons, 69.69
123. Texas State Bobcats, 68.96
124. Vanderbilt Commodores, 68.85
125. UTEP Miners, 68.80
126. UTSA Roadrunners, 68.65
127. Rice Owls, 68.46
128. New Mexico State Aggies, 64.65
129. Akron Zips, 63.86
130. Massachusetts Minutemen 62.70

Terrible 10: Team Performances year to date (Power 5 schools only)

124. Vanderbilt, 68.85
116. UCLA, 71.77
111. Rutgers, 73.32
105. Georgia Tech, 74.09
100. Arkansas, 74.81
91. Stanford, 76.30
86. Illinois, 76.83
84. South Carolina, 76.69
82. Ole Miss, 77.15
81. Tennessee, 77.19