Breaking down the top college football quarterbacks with film study to look at the Week 4 performances from Tua, Trevor, Justin Herbert and more.
The first month of college football is now in the rearview mirror as Week 4 closed out with several marquee matchups. Georgia outlasted Notre Dame, Wisconsin wiped the floor with Michigan, and Auburn slid past Texas A&M.
But it’s the evaluations that matter more to the NFL than direct results. Franchises are quarterback-driven, and thus always keeping an eye out for their next star.
The weekly regulars are back for our series, including Trevor Lawrence, Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert. Also included are Jacob Eason, Jordan Love, Jake Fromm and Joe Burrow. The rest of the quarterbacks were far from challenged, making their play tough to draw conclusions from.
Trevor Lawrence, Clemson
Clemson finally had a cupcake matchup to beat up on as Charlotte came to Death Valley. Star quarterback Trevor Lawrence established how this game would go right out of the gate, hitting a play-action 58-yard bomb touchdown down the left hashmark on the second play of the game.
Lawrence had only nine attempts total as the Tigers quickly ran up to a comfortable margin in the first half. He was accurate on eight, but only his first throw was beyond 10 yards. Three of his throws were screens, and his lone miss was an out-of-pocket attempt to the left on third down.
His second touchdown pass came in the red zone as he took a hard pump to the outside receiver and waited for Cornell Powell to break away from the slot defender on a quick out route. It was an easy throw but showed nice nuance and patience to execute and own the offense.
Overall there wasn’t much to learn from this performance.
Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama
Here’s another week of nearly-flawless play from Alabama star Tua Tagovailoa. His victim this week was Southern Mississippi, who only forced three uncatchable passes on 18 qualifying attempts. This was the first time all season Tagovailoa attempted more throws beyond 10 yards than under when also including screens.
His downfield aggressiveness largely led to great results. Though he missed a deep play-action attempt to Jerry Jeudy about 50 yards downfield, he also nailed two other passes beyond 20 yards in addition to four of six intermediate attempts. His 74-yard connection with speedster Henry Ruggs went about 44 yards in the air and was slightly underthrown, but was a good ball that allowed his playmaker to finish for a score.
Drop and a flag means this play didn't get logged but my god look at this touch and placement on third down. pic.twitter.com/npR1rkll3X
— Ian Valentino (@NFLDraftStudy) September 23, 2019
His best throw of the afternoon didn’t count for anything but penalty yardage due to a drop. But Tagovailoa demonstrated elite touch and placement on the third-down throw, hitting his man directly in the hands near his head, which also protects his receiver from a jarring hit. The throw above is what separates Tua from his peers.
The lone miss of note was an intermediate pass over the middle on third and medium range. He was under pressure and the second straight week where he undershot a ball in this scenario, sending it into the dirt and not hitting a window that existed. It’s not something that tanks his value, but something to watch for in bigger matchups.
Justin Herbert, Oregon
One of the more anticipated matchups of the weekend featured Oregon star quarterback Justin Herbert facing off against Stanford’s physical and talented secondary. Herbert continued his hot streak and improvement in terms of charting, delivering a catchable pass on all but four of his 24 attempts. His season-long numbers are in a healthier place than what we saw out of him in 2018 despite the mediocre showing against Auburn.
Oregon allowed several quick pressures on Herbert, resulting in three forced sacks that Herbert couldn’t escape from and four hurried pass attempts. Herbert’s shown an ability to bounce off tacklers and extend plays outside of the pocket but this game lacked a good example. The results are much more varied when Herbert stands in the pocket with incoming defenders.
Again he struggles under pressure. Hits the wrong shoulder, misses the conversion, and gets his man walloped pic.twitter.com/0dk6jy8DJk
— Ian Valentino (@NFLDraftStudy) September 23, 2019
This is why I continue to worry about what Herbert can be in the NFL. Much like Carson Wentz, Herbert’s good with a clear plan in the pocket and when he’s forced to improvise outside of it. But chaos in the pocket and scripted movement outside of the pocket brings inconsistent results and dangerous decisions. His accuracy when pressured is a major concern that his turnover-rate will swell.
There’s also the issue of aggressiveness beyond the markers. While most strong prospects consistently attack beyond the markers on conversion downs, Herbert’s attempted just of 17 of 29 of his conversion passes beyond the markers. That’s a figure that needs to creep up from 58 percent to closer to 65 percent to be a positive for his supporters.
Overall, this was a fine performance but not one the moved the needle for Herbert. The scheme did most of the work and he did a fine job executing.
Jordan Love, Utah State
It’s been a few weeks since we featured Jordan Love, but he came back into the picture with a solid outing against rival San Diego State. The Aggies were able to get their way through most of the night on the ground and through the air, with Love hitting several key throws that showed off his skill set.
His performance beyond the line of scrimmage showed off his usual blend of athleticism on the move and ability to deliver strikes on short and intermediate attempts. 17 of his 22 attempts from 0-10 were accurate, and five of seven attempts from 11-19 yards were accurate. This is normal for Love, who is establishing himself as a reliable case study in these ranges.
Such a fantastic throw on the run. Great catch too. pic.twitter.com/6BpmCfNZMR
— Ian Valentino (@NFLDraftStudy) September 24, 2019
His deep ball remains pretty when it comes off his hand but scattered with results. He finished around 40 percent accurate beyond 20 yards last year and remains there this year. He has the tendency of leaning too far back and arching his throws, which led to a dropped interception this game.
Otherwise, it was a great performance for scouts to look at. All but one of his conversion down throws went past the marker, hitting on seven of 10 attempts.
Love’s trending upwards this season and still has a showdown with LSU pending as his massive chance to leap.
Jacob Eason, Washington
The weekly growth and play of Jacob Eason has been fascinating to see. I’m becoming more of a fan as his game and confidence swell with each performance. Eason diced up a quality BYU defense that employed a testing zone strategy throughout the day.
His arm is still his greatest asset because of his ability to thread the needle and beat incoming defenders. He can be late making reads yet still convert on his attempts without putting the ball at risk. Eason didn’t attempt a pass beyond 20 yards, but it’s still impressive he was accurate on 17 of his first 18 throws and finished with just two uncatchable balls and avoided any sacks.
His first two touchdown passes were perfectly placed and highlighted the NFL potential oozing within Eason. The Cougars defense really had no chance to compete with his precision, which has been decent for the season as a whole but blossomed to a new level this week.
I’m a little skeptical Eason will leave Washington after just one season but more performances like this and he will have the opportunity. He’s much more interesting to me than Jake Fromm, for example, despite the latter winning the Georgia job from Eason. His physical skill set and upside plays are that of a potential franchise quarterback.
Jake Fromm, Georgia
Finally, we were given the chance to see Jake Fromm’s progress against a quality defense in 2019. Notre Dame’s defense isn’t as fast as Georgia’s playmakers, but they’re disciplined and tough, and they made Fromm work more than the likes of Arkansas State and Murray State.
The results were uninspiring as Fromm continues to be utilized as a game manager. He had three great throws, including two back-shoulder attempts that ended in a first down conversion and one touchdown. The other was a deep pass down the left sideline.
Fromm showed again that he’s talented and excellent in his role for the Bulldogs. But they rarely ask him to make tough throws, which cannot be said for anyone else featured in this list. That has to be a negative on his scouting report.
His arm is like Daniel Jones'- it's fine, but uninspiring. Everything has to go well for it to be enough, or else he'll miss these gimmes. pic.twitter.com/CuS1J8VjyL
— Ian Valentino (@NFLDraftStudy) September 24, 2019
His lack of standout physical traits compared to the emerging Eason really stood out after watching the two back-to-back. While a big arm won’t make a bad quarterback good, it can be the difference between average and better than average. It’s becoming a tougher sell for me when it comes to saying Fromm will be anything more than an Andy Dalton-type at the next level.
Joe Burrow, LSU
Both Joe Burrow and Jacob Eason have stepped up in major ways already in 2019. Neither’s eventual stock will settle until after bowl season because we need to see them against stiffer competition. For Burrow, that means against Georgia, Alabama or any other playoff-caliber defense.
For now, we’ll take each week for what we can. We can confidently say that Burrow’s growth fits this spread system and era. NFL teams should love his self-improvement and ability to recognize pre-snap matchups. He’s taken considerable steps forward in terms of aligning his body and timely delivering a ball that protects the ball, his target, and maximizing what comes next.
His receivers have helped him considerably against weaker foes in terms of creation at the catch point and post-catch, but it’s a tandem effort like Tua and his receivers. Burrow is not a product of his surrounding cast but more a part of a terrific ecosystem that he contributes to.
His play against Vanderbilt highlighted someone comfortable in five-wide situations and getting the ball out of his hand quickly. I want to see him under pressure and having to scan the field more than what his competition has forced to this point, but he’s capable of some terrific throws in a clean pocket.
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