The College Football Playoff is taking shape entering Week 5 and the contenders are beginning to separate themselves from the pretenders.
Considering we’re only entering Week 5 of the college football season, the College Football Playoff is still several months down the line. And yet, every game at this point matters, especially so considering conference matchups are now getting underway. That’s when teams are really put to the test with the weak getting separated from the pack.
Subsequently, it’s now the perfect time to play Pretender or Contender with the leading candidates to make the College Football Playoff this season. Whether that’s an unbeaten team or a top-10 team that’s in the running, it’s important to look at the lay of the land and figure out what’s real and what’s a mirage.
Working in reverse order through the most recent AP Poll, let’s dive right in and determine which teams are pretenders that will fade away and which are contenders in regards to the College Football Playoff.
No. 15 California Golden Bears – Pretender
Just like everyone predicted, Cal is the only undefeated team in the Pac-12 after the first four weeks of action. Armed with a highly talented and aggressive veteran defense and with redshirt sophomore quarterback Chase Garbers taking a step forward, this team has been impressive.
Yet, their offense just doesn’t seem to have enough pop and, if their defense slips at all, they’re far too susceptible to simply not being able to put up enough points. At the end of the day, that makes them College Football Playoff pretenders, even if they can still win the Pac-12.
No. 12 Penn State Nittany Lions – Pretender
What has Penn State done in their first three games to make anyone confident in them? Okay, they beat the Pitt Panthers in a rivalry game but they also won by seven points against a team that, in theory, they should be miles better than. Outside of that, this Nittany Lions team has not remotely been put to the test.
Given how strong the Big Ten looks at the top and the questions about the playmakers James Franklin has, I’m dubious of this team. If Penn State ended the year with three losses on the ledger, it would not shock me.
No. 11 Texas Longhorns – Pretender
Coming into the 2019 season, I maintained Texas was actually back and deserved to be taken seriously as a College Football Playoff team. And at their best, that’s probably still the case. Having said that, they have not looked like the best version of themselves, particularly on defense.
Their loss in Week 2 to LSU is quite telling the Longhorns defense just isn’t up to the task of making them a legitimate playoff contender. And with a game against Oklahoma looming on their schedule still looks like a losing effort, even if it is a rivalry game. With two losses, no chance Sam Ehlinger and co. are heading to the CFP.
No. 10 Notre Dame Fighting Irish – Contender
Despite concerns about the Irish after they performed so terribly in last year’s College Football Playoff, they acquitted themselves quite well against Georgia in Week 3, even if they lost. Ian Book and this offense are legitimate and the defense, even with the departures they suffered at key spots, is playing at a high level.
Perhaps most important for Notre Dame, though, is their remaining schedule isn’t all that daunting as they appear better than Virginia and with Michigan being a dumpster fire. So if they can maintain this level of play, the Fighting Irish have the national respect to potentially make the CFP again, this time as a one-loss team.
No. 9 Florida Gators – Pretender
Make no mistake, the Florida defense is going to keep them in a lot of games, even playing in the tough SEC. The likes of Jabari Zuniga and C.J. Henderson, among others, are that talented. However, the offense remains troublesome, especially with Kyle Trask now taking over and not exactly inspiring hope in his first start against Tennessee.
Whenever the Gators get up against teams like LSU and Georgia (and maybe Auburn), we’re going to see a team that’s good but not great. Good doesn’t get you into the College Football Playoff, though.
No. 8 Wisconsin Badgers – Contender
If you don’t think the Wisconsin Badgers are legitimate, you aren’t paying attention. Despite losing their starting offensive line outside of Tyler Biadasz, the line has been great in opening the way for Jonathan Taylor and letting the star do his thing.
However, quarterback Jack Coan gives them a more versatile and dynamic offense and the defense has performed above expectations through the first four weeks of the season. They have plenty more tests lie ahead and have the goods to prove they’re legit.
No. 7 Auburn Tigers – Pretender
Auburn’s defense might be one of the best units in the country. They have been terrorizing every offense they’ve faced through the start of the year, including two talented groups in Oregon and Texas A&M. And while they’ve passed two tests to this point, it’s impossible to believe in them when you look at their offense.
Bo Nix may eventually be a good college quarterback. Right now, though, he severely limits what the Tigers are capable of when they have the ball, at least consistently. And with matchups against Florida, LSU, Georgia and Alabama still on the schedule, there’s no way they come out unscathed.
No. 6 Oklahoma Sooners – Contender
Another year, another Oklahoma Sooners quarterback thriving under Lincoln Riley. Jalen Hurts transferred from Tuscaloosa to Norman and has been lighting the world on fire. There legitimately might not be a team in the country that can stop this offense with the way Hurts, Trey Sermon, CeeDee Lamb and one of the best offensive lines in college football is thriving.
While their defense might be suspect, how much does that matter if their offense can’t be stopped. Consider me a believer in the Sooners until someone proves they have an answer for how to keep them from lighting up the scoreboard.
No. 5 Ohio State Buckeyes – Contender
Ohio State hasn’t exactly been tested through their first four games, even if Cincinnati is a fine enough team. Even still, the Buckeyes have looked the part of a top-tier team with the way Justin Fields and the Buckeyes have blown out everyone put in front of them.
We should learn more about this team as the Big Ten schedule heats up, but when you have this kind of high-octane offense to go with a defense led by Chase Young and Jeffery Okudah, it’s hard to not believe in them.
No. 4 LSU Tigers – Contender
For many years, the knock on LSU has been their lack of offensive prowess. They’ve long possessed a great defense, which is again the case this year with a unit led by stars like Grant Delpit, Rashard Lawrence and K’Lavon Chaisson. However, what’s changed this year is Joe Burrow and the offense have taken a massive leap forward.
This might be the best offensive output we’ve seen from the Tigers in recent memory. If Burrow can continue to put forth the effort he has to this point, LSU could very well find themselves in the College Football Playoff at season’s end.
No. 3 Georgia Bulldogs – Contender
Georgia is coming off passing their first true test of the 2019 season, clawing out a tough win in Athens against Notre Dame. What they showed in that game is what you expected to see from the Dawgs. Jake Fromm is a steady-handed veteran quarterback with some young breakout playmakers at wide receiver along with running back D’Andre Swift. Meanwhile, the defense has been a bit better than expected.
We need to see Kirby Smart’s team take down the likes of Alabama, their Kryptonite in recent years, to truly have faith in them. At this point, though, they have to be considered a contender.
No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide – Contender
Has Alabama faced anyone of merit on their way to a 4-0 start to the season? No — but that doesn’t mean the Crimson Tide haven’t been wholly impressive to this point. Tua Tagovailoa and the loaded receiving corps have barely had to set foot on the field in the second half, confirming this offense is lethal.
While there are defensive question marks with this team, particularly with Dylan Moses being out for the year, the offense is good enough to carry Nick Saban’s team to the mountaintop. It’s hard to see them not being favored against anyone in the SEC, even the other contenders they face.
No. 1 Clemson Tigers – Contender
If there’s one thing you need to know about Clemson, it’s Trevor Lawrence hasn’t even played particularly well and the Tigers have still barely broken a sweat to begin their title defense. Between a reloaded defense that’s thriving and an offense that can succeed behind Travis Etienne and the rushing attack alone, Dabo Swinney’s group is clearly as dangerous as they’ve ever been.
There is no ranked opponent left on Clemson’s schedule throughout the rest of the year, so they likely won’t be tested. However, you’re blind if you don’t see this team as a College Football Playoff favorite once again — especially if Lawrence gets right.
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