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NFL DFS game by game breakdown: Week 4

By Joe Metz

CARSON, CA - AUGUST 24: Tyler Lockett #16 of the Seattle Seahawks takes a knee while the smoke from pre-game ceremonies drifts over the field before playing the Los Angeles Chargersduring a pre-season NFL football game at Dignity Health Sports Park on August 24, 2019 in Carson, California. (Photo by John McCoy/Getty Images)
CARSON, CA - AUGUST 24: Tyler Lockett #16 of the Seattle Seahawks takes a knee while the smoke from pre-game ceremonies drifts over the field before playing the Los Angeles Chargersduring a pre-season NFL football game at Dignity Health Sports Park on August 24, 2019 in Carson, California. (Photo by John McCoy/Getty Images) /
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NFL DFS
GLENDALE, ARIZONA – SEPTEMBER 22: Quarterback Kyle Allen #7 and wide receiver Jarius Wright #13 of the Carolina Panthers celebrate a touchdown in the second half of the NFL game against the Arizona Cardinals at State Farm Stadium on September 22, 2019 in Glendale, Arizona. The Carolina Panthers won 38-20. (Photo by Jennifer Stewart/Getty Images) /

NFL DFS: Carolina Panthers @ Houston Texans

Carolina Panthers

Kyle Allen was blessed with the gift of teeing off against the Cardinals inept defense last week, but will face a much slower and tougher test this week. Houston ranks 18th in overall DVOA on the season, but their DEFENSE DAVE ranking (projection based off of preseason ranking and performance so far) of 9th shows that there is some expected progression on the horizon. Until we see him execute effectively against a competent defense, he can safely be avoided.

If you want any Allen exposure, it’s best to get it via D.J. Moore, Greg Olsen or Curtis Samuel. All three players have pretty evenly divided up targets from Newton/Allen on the season, but if you go strictly off of Allen’s start last week, Olsen and Samuel appear to be his favorite targets. Each of them garnered 7 targets compared to just 2 from Moore, while Olsen scored twice and Samuel once. Olsen profiles as a safe mid-tier play while Samuel is best-left as a GPP play with upside given his matchup with Jonathan Joseph.

While Moore only saw 2 targets last week, he could see a massive uptick this week as he should be shadowed by Lonnie Johnson Jr., who’s PFF grade of 40.9 ranks 101st at the CB position.

Christian McCaffrey experienced a nice bounce-back game in large part due to a 75-yard TD run as he saw 27 touches and played 92% of the team’s snaps. He should maintain the bell-cow role and I fully expect him to surpass his 4 targets from last week against a Houston defense that struggles against pass-catching running backs. He’s an elite play in all formats.

Cash Plays: McCaffrey, Olsen

GPP Plays: Moore, Samuel

Houston Texans

Deshaun Watson returned back to form last week, posting 30+ fantasy points for the 2nd time in 3 weeks this season. The main concern with Watson is his putrid offensive line, as he’s been sacked 12 times on the season. On the bright side, however, the sacks he’s taken have lessened each week, going from 6, to 4, to 2. Carolina’s adjusted sack rate of 6.3% is below league average (7.0%), making me a bit more confident in rolling out Watson in all formats.

Pairing him with DeAndre Hopkins is always a viable strategy even after two straight down games from Nuk. Hopkins leads the team with an elite 30.53% target share, making him a viable play in all formats, but I don’t see a need for him in cash. Will Fuller and Kenny Stills have eaten into each others’ production, as both have target shares below 20%, but the big-play upside that both possess make them viable in GPPs. The fact that Fuller has also finished only 1 target behind Hopkins in 2 consecutive weeks vaults him into the value receiver conversation for cash games if you pair him with Hopkins.

Carlos Hyde saw only 10 touches in week 3, marking a season-low and 1 less than his week 1 total. While that may be alarming, he still totaled 71.4% of the overall touches, so the down game may have been a product of game script. Carolina has struggled against the run this season, ranking 30th in power success, 25th in 2nd-level yards allowed, and 16th in open-field rush defense. He could be an interesting GPP dart on FanDuel. On DraftKings, however, Duke Johnson carries more upside due to his involvement in the passing game. He only saw 4 touches last game, but if he sees anywhere from 6-9, he should pay off his cheap salary.

Cash Plays: Watson, Hopkins, Fuller

GPP Plays: Hyde (FD), Johnson (DK), Stills (punt play)