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NFL DFS game by game breakdown: Week 4

By Joe Metz

CARSON, CA - AUGUST 24: Tyler Lockett #16 of the Seattle Seahawks takes a knee while the smoke from pre-game ceremonies drifts over the field before playing the Los Angeles Chargersduring a pre-season NFL football game at Dignity Health Sports Park on August 24, 2019 in Carson, California. (Photo by John McCoy/Getty Images)
CARSON, CA - AUGUST 24: Tyler Lockett #16 of the Seattle Seahawks takes a knee while the smoke from pre-game ceremonies drifts over the field before playing the Los Angeles Chargersduring a pre-season NFL football game at Dignity Health Sports Park on August 24, 2019 in Carson, California. (Photo by John McCoy/Getty Images) /
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TAMPA, FLORIDA – SEPTEMBER 22: Wide receiver Mike Evans #13 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers celebrates after a first quarter touchdown during the game against the New York Giants at Raymond James Stadium on September 22, 2019 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Mike Zarrilli/Getty Images) /

NFL DFS: Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Los Angeles Rams

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

While it was Chris Godwin that was operating as the clear WR1 in Tampa Bay through the first two weeks, he saw only 4 targets last week en route to taking a back seat to Mike Evans, who saw 14 targets. Evans was able to turn that volume into a mammoth 8-190-3 line as he absolutely torched Janoris Jenkins.

The Rams have allowed the 2nd fewest fantasy points per game to opposing wideouts this season, but both Godwin and Evans are superior talents than 75% of the receivers in the league. With that said, it’s hard to pinpoint which one will serve as the WR1 for Jameis Winston on a weekly basis, making both GPP-only plays until we get more clarity.

Speaking of Winston, he had a phenomenal gam

e last week, but is one of those quarterbacks that lacks consistency. Last season, he averaged 20.6 fantasy points per game, but had 3 games of 10 or less and 2 games of 35+. He profiles as a GPP-only play and given the fact that he’ll always be encouraged to throw 35+ times per game, he always carries slate-winning upside.

After Arians insisted that OJ Howard would get more engaged in week 3, we finally saw some life. He recorded 4 targets and turned them into a 3-66-0 line. He’s played at least 75% of snaps each week and we could finally be on the verge of a breakout.

The backfield of Ronald Jones and Peyton Barber is an absolute mess with Barber “leading” the charge. Neither of them are assets to hang your hats on in DFS, especially against a respectable Rams front-7 led by Aaron Donald.

Cash Plays: none

GPP Plays: Winston, Evans, Godwin, Howard

Los Angeles Rams

The Rams passing attack has been hard to pinpoint with so many weapons this season, but Cooper Kupp has looked a tier above the rest. He exploded for 100+ yards and a pair fo scores while receiving double-digit targets last week and looks to be in perfect sync with Jared Goff. He leads the team with a 28.44% target share and comes into an elite spot against the porous Bucs secondary, making him an Uber-safe play.

Robert Woods has taken a back-seat to Kupp, but still holds a 23.85% target share even though he hasn’t had the catches or yardage to show for it. His 56.5% completion percentage is almost 10% below what it’s been over the last 3 seasons, leading me to believe we could be in a prime buy-low spot in a get-right matchup. I love Woods in GPPs this week. Brandin Cooks has seen an uptick in targets this season (21.1%), but still profiles more as a GPP play given his tendency to rely on the big plays as opposed to operating as a possession receiver.

Todd Gurley has seen at least 70% of the snaps in 2 of his 3 games this season while dominating the carries over the last two weeks. The issue, however, is that he hasn’t seen more than 16 carries in a game this season as the Rams have gone much more pass-heavy. This limits Gurley to GPP-only at best against a Tampa Bay defense that ranks 2nd in rush DVOA.

Cash Plays: Kupp, Woods

GPP Plays: Goff, Gurley, Cooks