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NFL DFS game by game breakdown: Week 4

By Joe Metz

CARSON, CA - AUGUST 24: Tyler Lockett #16 of the Seattle Seahawks takes a knee while the smoke from pre-game ceremonies drifts over the field before playing the Los Angeles Chargersduring a pre-season NFL football game at Dignity Health Sports Park on August 24, 2019 in Carson, California. (Photo by John McCoy/Getty Images)
CARSON, CA - AUGUST 24: Tyler Lockett #16 of the Seattle Seahawks takes a knee while the smoke from pre-game ceremonies drifts over the field before playing the Los Angeles Chargersduring a pre-season NFL football game at Dignity Health Sports Park on August 24, 2019 in Carson, California. (Photo by John McCoy/Getty Images) /
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CHICAGO, ILLINOIS – SEPTEMBER 05: Davante Adams #17 of the Green Bay Packers avoids a tackle by Kyle Fuller #23 of the Chicago Bears during the second quarter at Soldier Field on September 05, 2019 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images) /

NFL DFS: Philadelphia Eagles @ Green Bay Packers

Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles fell to the Lions in week 3 and frankly, have looked downright disappointing this season. Alshon Jeffery has a good shot of returning on Thursday, which would be a huge bump for the offense with DeSean Jackson and J.J. Arcega-Whiteside hobbled. Should all three sit, Nelson Agholor should continue to be a target machine. He’s seen 23 targets over the last two weeks and caught a pair of touchdowns last week. He would undoubtedly see coverage from Jaire Alexander, but that kind of volume potential on a short slate gives him a rock solid floor. If Jeffery is able to suit up, he would slide into an expanded role without Jackson, making him another attractive play.

Zach Ertz was the chalk tight end on Sunday, but was only able to come away with a 4-64-0 line on 7 targets. I’d expect this volume to be his floor in this matchup, priming him for a nice bounce-back against a stout defense. Additionally, Mack Hollins could be a value piece to differentiate your showdown lineups, as he would line up for a heap of volume if 2 or 3 receivers end up missing this game.

Carson Wentz has been rather consistent, albeit without a ceiling game this season. On a short slate, he has some appeal, but I’m much more interested in Aaron Rodgers on the other side, as the Packers secondary ranks 3rd in pass DVOA on the season.

Cash Plays: Ertz, Agholor (if Jackson and/or Jeffery OUT)

GPP Plays: Wentz

Green Bay Packers

The Packers 3-0 start is much more a product of their stout defense, but this could finally be a game where their offense smashes. The Philly secondary has been brutalized by receivers this season, ranking 23rd in pass DVOA and allowing the 4th most fantasy points per game to receivers (32 per game). This should have Aaron Rodgers licking his chops when looking towards Davante Adams. Below are the stat lines the Eagles have allowed to WR1s on teams’ depth charts since the beginning of 2018:

Kenny Golladay last week is an exception to this, but this stat alone makes Adams an elite play in all formats. Rodgers himself should be able to pick apart this secondary, as they’ve allowed the 7th most fantasy points to opposing QBs.

Aaron Jones was able to salvage his day with 2 rushing touchdowns, but played a season-low 22 snaps, 13 less than Jamaal Williams. It seems like LaFleur’s comments of a time-share are going to ring true, making them both GPP plays at best this week.

The other receivers, Geronimo Allison and Marquez Valdes-Scantling, is like splitting hairs. It’s hard to predict who will go off on a given day, but I’d put my trust in Valdes-Scantling, as he’s out-snapped Allison by at least 10 snaps in every week and actually leads the team in targets (22).

Cash Plays: Rodgers, Adams, Valdes-Scantling

GPP Plays: Jones, Williams