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NFL DFS game by game breakdown: Week 4

By Joe Metz

CARSON, CA - AUGUST 24: Tyler Lockett #16 of the Seattle Seahawks takes a knee while the smoke from pre-game ceremonies drifts over the field before playing the Los Angeles Chargersduring a pre-season NFL football game at Dignity Health Sports Park on August 24, 2019 in Carson, California. (Photo by John McCoy/Getty Images)
CARSON, CA - AUGUST 24: Tyler Lockett #16 of the Seattle Seahawks takes a knee while the smoke from pre-game ceremonies drifts over the field before playing the Los Angeles Chargersduring a pre-season NFL football game at Dignity Health Sports Park on August 24, 2019 in Carson, California. (Photo by John McCoy/Getty Images) /
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NFL DFS
BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – JANUARY 06: Quarterback Lamar Jackson #8 of the Baltimore Ravens in action against the Los Angeles Chargers during the AFC Wild Card Playoff game at M&T Bank Stadium on January 06, 2019 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images) /

NFL DFS: Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens

Cleveland Browns

The Browns hype-train continues to fall off of the rails, as this team has many more glaring weaknesses than people were willing to admit this offseason.

Baker Mayfield has already thrown 5 interceptions through his first 3 games this season and has yet to face a truly daunting defensive unit, until this week. On top of that, his completion percentage has been below 55% if 2 of his 3 weeks and he’s gotten sacked at least 3 times each game. Against a stout Ravens defense, there is zero reason to look towards Mayfield in any format.

Due to Baker’s poor play, Odell Beckham has been performing at a level that people would’ve thought would have been his floor this season, aside from his week 2 explosion. He’s still commanding 29.09% of the targets and he should continue to be force-fed the ball, making him appealing in GPPs as a leverage play. Fellow wideout Jarvis Landry leads the team in red-zone targets (5), but hasn’t turned them into any production, making him an easy fade.

Nick Chubb has been a rather consistent bright-spot in this offense, topping 90 yards from scrimmage in back-to-back games and catching at least 3 passes in all three contests. He profiles more as a large-field GPP play, however, as the Ravens rank 6th in rush DVOA this season after also ranking 6th all throughout 2018.

Cash Plays: none

GPP Plays: Beckham, Chubb

Baltimore Ravens

We expected fireworks from the Ravens offense last week but walked away rather unsatisfied with Lamar Jackson‘s outing. Sure, he salvaged his day with a rushing touchdown, but he failed to throw a touchdown pass for the first time this season and looked beyond off on a handful of his throws. While he should’ve gone off last week, I see no way Jackson posts two duds in a row with a matchup at home against a division rival.

I also expect Mark Ingram to continue to see a ton of work. He saw a season-high 20 touches last week and has seen at least 66% of the backfield touches in the last two weeks. On top of that, after splitting the red-zone work in weeks 1 and 2, he was the only running back to have a red-zone carry (4) in week 3, covering 3 of them into touchdowns.

Marquise Brown (2-49-0) and Mark Andrews (3-15-0) both had down games relative to their first two weeks, but were still the two most targeted receivers (9 and 7 respectively) in a game where there were 10 separate players to record a target. I expect them to continue to lead the team in targets while Jackson condenses his options, returning them both to strong plays, while Andrews holds the higher floor at a thinner position.

Cash Plays: Jackson, Ingram, Andrews, Ravens D/ST

GPP Plays: Brown