UFC DFS: Tournament breakdown for Fight Night 160

MMA is one of the most volatile sports in the world, as a single mistake can alter the course of the entire fight. When utilized properly, this level of volatility is helpful for building DraftKings’ UFC DFS daily fantasy MMA lineups. Identifying best-case-scenario outcomes for each fighter and assuming that everything goes according to plan can aid in isolating the highest-upside lineup each weekend.

Daily fantasy MMA has both cash and tournament-style contests. In cash contests, it makes sense to find the safest, lowest-downside fighters. In tournament contests, the riskiest, highest-upside fighters are most important.

This article addresses only tournament contests, as it employs Vegas odds in order to best predict high-variance outcomes for lower-priced fighters. These fighters have the highest probability of scoring the most fantasy points per dollar, a measurement that all tournament-style fantasy players need to consider.

*Chart from BestFightOdds.com

*Data from BestFightOdds.com

Khalil Rountree Jr. ($8,400)

Khalil Rountree Jr. looked impressive in his first octagon return since losing to Johnny Walker via first-round knockout. He moved his training to Thailand in order to more effectively train his Muay Thai striking, and it worked tremendously well. Eryk Anders had no answer for his powerful leg kicks, and Rountree cruised to an easy unanimous decision victory.

This weekend, he gets a tough matchup against Ion Cutelaba. Rountree is currently the -130 betting favorite via Vegas, and his odds to win inside the distance are +105. Assuming a win, Rountree has a 20% chance to win via decision and an 80% chance to win via finish. His price tag on DraftKings is only $8.4K, and he has over 100 fantasy points in all of his last 4 wins. It is far from a guarantee that Rountree defeats Cutelaba, but if he does, his fantasy-point ceiling is high. In tournaments, all that matters is upside, and Rountree has plenty of it.

John Phillips ($8,000)

John Phillips has struggled in the UFC, losing three consecutive fights to Charles Byrd, Kevin Holland, and Jack Marshman. Dana White is likely giving Phillips another chance at picking up his first professional UFC victory because of his entertaining knockout power. His opponent this weekend, Alen Amedovski, is also a knockout artist, he has displayed poor striking technique and a lack of head movement at times. On the regional scene, it didn’t matter; Amedovski won eight consecutive fights via finish. Against Krzysztof Jotko, it did matter. Jotko defeated Amedovski in his UFC debut, and Amedovski is looking for his first UFC victory, as well.

Phillips is currently an even-money betting underdog in Copenhagen. Amedovski is the -120 betting favorite, but Phillips has more upside on DraftKings. Assuming a win, he has an 18.5% chance of winning via decision and 81.5% chance of winning via finish. Phillips scored a knockdown against Marshman, coming very close to victory, but ultimately failed. His low $8.0K price tag on DraftKings makes him worth consideration in tournament-style contests. If he wins, it should be via finish, and a finish is worth enough fantasy points for Phillips to hit value, even in a slower-paced fight.

Jared Cannonier ($7,000)

Jared Cannonier is a massive +190 betting underdog against Jack Hermansson this weekend in Hermansson’s neighboring country, Denmark. Cannonier recently defeated both David Branch and Anderson Silva after losing to Jan Blachowicz and Dominick Reyes. He has shown inconsistency in his UFC bouts, but his upside is undeniable. Hermansson, on the other hand, is on a four-fight win streak, defeating David Branch and Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza most recently. Hermansson deserves stiffer competition, perhaps even a title fight, but he accepted the fight against Cannonier, and MMA is highly volatile.

If Cannonier wins, he has a 22.7% chance to do so via decision and 77.3% chance to do so via finish. It is much more unlikely that Cannonier defeats Hermansson than Khalil Rountree Jr. defeats Ion Cutelaba or John Phillips defeats Alen Amedovski, but his price tag is much lower, as well. Cannonier has powerful hands, recording four UFC knockout victories, two in his last two fights. Hermansson is the more well-rounded fighter, and he has a better skill set, but MMA does not always play out the way it should. Cannonier has plenty of upside in tournament-style DraftKings’ contests.

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