Errol Spence Jr. vs. Shawn Porter: Preview and prediction

Errol Spence Jr. and Shawn Porter meet on Saturday, Sept. 28 to decide who controls the welterweight division. Spence is favored, but Porter has a chance.

The Saturday, Sept. 28  FOX Sports PBC pay-per-view event (9 p.m E.T) between IBF welterweight champion Errol Spence Jr. (25-0, 21 KOs) and WBC titleholder Shawn Porter (30-2-1, 17 KOs) is one of the most significant bouts of the year. However, it’s not all that competitive, according to oddsmakers. Are they right?

According to the Sportsbook Review, the odds on Porter range from 5-1 to 7-1, making him a healthy underdog. He has two career losses and one draw but is skills are elite. He has shown a lot of growth over the last three years and doesn’t deserve to be rated so critically by oddsmakers.

The hype surrounding Spence is deserved. He is one of the best pound-for-pound boxers in the world, but his résumé lacks depth. He easily defeated a muscled up Mikey Garcia in his last bout, but Spence was much larger than Garcia who jumped up two weight classes for the fight.

Outside of Garcia, the best fighters Spence fought were Lamont Peterson and Kell Brook. Peterson was well beyond his prime and Brook was overrated and permanently damaged goods from his previous bout against Golovkin. Porter is arguably the toughest opponent of Spence’s career.

Porter’s list of opponents is more impressive than Spence’s. The only problem is that it isn’t flawless. Porter lost a decision Kell Brook in 2014 and another to Keith Thurman in 2016. His game has evolved since then.

In his last fight against Yordenis Ugas, Porter demonstrated the full compliment of his arsenal. He’s tagged as an aggressive brawler, but against Ugas he boxed. Porter counterpunched when needed and cautiously stalked Ugas when given the opportunity. He shouldn’t be a 7-1 underdog, but 3-1 would be fair.

For the improvements Porter has made as a boxer, Spence’s abilities are a notch above. At 5-foot-9, Spence is 2 inches taller than Porter, and he has a 2-inch reach advantage. He’s also a southpaw which will make it even harder for Porter to hit him cleanly.

The first several rounds should be quiet. The respect that Spence and Porter have for each other will make them cautious in the early going, but Spence is masterful at gauging his pace throughout a fight. He knows how to win rounds strategically and will build an early lead on Porter.

Porter will make things competitive, but he will get desperate to try to win rounds as the fight goes on. He has a lot of heart, but he will come on too little too late. Spence and Porter will push each other to new levels, but Spence’s skill, size, and athleticism give him the edge.

Look for Spence to win by unanimous decision. Spence should win around 8 of 12 rounds, but the fight will look closer than scorecards indicate.

Spence vs. Porter goes down on Saturday, Sept. 28 at 9 p.m. ET. The fight is on FOX pay-per-view and costs $74.99. You can order it through most cable providers or online at FOX’s website and streamed through the FOX Sports app.