NASCAR DFS picks 9/29/19: Bank of America Roval 400
With just one race remaining in the first round of the playoffs, the Cup series heads to the oval turned road course, the Charlotte ROVAL. In one of the most unpredictable races of the year, we take a stab at the winner and best fantasy NASCAR DFS options for this weekend.
NASCAR DFS Top Contenders
Martin Truex Jr.
Martin Truex Jr. is as hot as he can be right now, winning both of the previous two races. Truex has won each of the first two playoff races, and has secured himself is the front runner for the championship.
On top of his hot start to the playoffs, Truex has become one of the series’ top road course racers. A top mile-and-a-half driver as well, the Charlotte ROVAL was made for Martin Truex Jr.
Over the past seven road course races, Truex has won three of them while leading the most laps. Over that span, he has accumulated five top-five’s and has an average finish of 8.29.
In last year’s race at the ROVAL, Truex was far from dominant. Ending with a 14th-place finish, the stage king only managed to finish fourth in the second stage, and led a grand total of five laps.
But this year is clearly different for Truex. He is on a tear right now, and very well could combine his success at Charlotte Motor Speedway, is road course prowess, and his recent success to win once again this weekend. He is starting eighth so he will even have the chance to grab some place differential points on his way to the front.
Truex has finally surpassed Kyle Busch as the most expensive driver in daily fantasy, and with so many good options, I made fade Truex this week. But he could come out and dominate, and the potential to add place differential points make him a top option, although likely with high ownership for GPPs, in DFS this weekend.
Chase Elliott
Right there with Truex has today’s top road course racers is Chase Elliott. Chase has two wins in the last seven road course races, has led just 36 fewer laps than Truex over that span, and has an average 10th-place finish since the start of 2017.
In the Cup series’ last road course race at Watkins Glen, Elliott absolutely dominated, starting from the pole, finishing first in all three stages, and leading 80 of 90 laps. In the road race prior at Sonoma, Chase started fourth and led laps before blowing an engine, leading to a 37th-place finish. An average finish of 10.0 with a 37th-place finish should show just how impressive he has been when his car is able to finish the race.
In last year’s race at the ROVAL, Chase finished in the top six in each of the three stages. Elliott is an elite driver at road courses, and after getting a chance to learn the track last season, I think Chase competes for the win this weekend.
Talking about earning place differential points on their way to the front, Chase is starting 19th on Sunday. He was sixth quickest in first practice, and I think his car just fine for the race on Sunday. Elliott is by far my favorite DFS play for this race, as he should be able to work his way to the front, pass a lot of cars for position, and compete for the win.
Kyle Larson
Kyle Larson is a guy that has been sneakily solid at road courses as well. He doesn’t have a win at one, and his average finish over the last seven races is just 16.0, but Larson has been getting better and better at these types of tracks.
Larson has finished in the top 10 at both road course races so far this year and qualified on the pole for Sonoma. But more importantly, Larson seemed to be the first guy to really figure out the ROVAL.
In this race last year, Larson dominated for most of the race. He started fifth, and quickly found his way to the front, winning the first stage. He led a race-high 47 laps, and could have led even more, but was sitting back towards the end of the race, anticipating that Brad Keselowski would run out of gas.
Larson was in control until the final restart, where memorably the majority of the front pack missed the first turn and ran pretty much straight into the wall. Larson kept his car running and limped to a 25th-place finish, advancing to the next round of the playoffs by one point.
This year, starting seventh, I expect Larson to run up front once again and be a player to win the race when it comes down to it at the end. Larson was second-fastest in both first practice and the first round of qualifying. He clearly has speed once again and will look to advance a little easier this time to the second round of the playoffs.
This week I am leaning towards pairing a couple of guys like Elliott and Larson at the top of my lineup, rather than going with a true top-priced anchor like Truex, Kyle Busch, or Harvick. Elliott and Larson should both be great options, and some of the honorable mentions below could also prove to be valuable pivots, especially if they show a lot of speed in the final two practice sessions on Saturday.
Honorable Mentions
Denny Hamlin, Ryan Blaney, Kurt Busch