Fantasy football week 5: Exploitable inefficiencies

Fantasy football Week 5: Exploitable inefficiencies

While it may be easy to find out how many points or yards a defense has allowed, it’s not necessarily the best predictor of future success. In order to get more accurate fantasy predictions, sites like Football Outsiders, tease out as much variance as possible, in order to reveal the true story as we head towards Fantasy Football Week 5!

Football Outsiders uses a method known as DVOA. DVOA is a method of evaluating teams, units, or players. It takes every single play during the NFL season and compares each one to a league-average baseline based on the situation. Remember, we’re dealing with extremely small sample sizes in the NFL and Fantasy Football right now, but here are some exploitable match-ups you may want to consider this week.

*Note: With only four weeks of data, these efficiencies numbers are extremely skewed. As the season progress, they will become more predictive.

Defenses Struggling Against the Pass and Stout Against the Run

New Orleans: 24th Overall (Pass: 26th, Run 14th)

I was certainly wrong about the Saints in last week’s matchup against the Cowboys, but I’ll be targeting their defense again, as they face the Tampa Bay Bucs in week five. Right now, the Saints are grading out as, 24th in overall defensive efficiency and much weaker against the pass than the run. Marshawn Lattimore completely shut down Amari Cooper last week, however, he was one of PFF’s lowest-rated defensive backs in the three weeks prior. I tend to believe that the lack of a second wide receiver (Gallup was out with a knee injury), allowed the New Orleans defense to have the success that it did. Facing the tandem of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin could prove to be tricky for a struggling pass defense.

As always with Jameis, it’s either feast or famine. His inconsistency and his lack of ability to prevent turnovers have resulted in this, “boom or bust” style. So it’s difficult to tout with confidence, but after hanging 55, against Los Angeles last week, the matchup against the Saints it worth examining. The Saints will actually be the worst defense that the Bucs have faced all season (from an efficiency perspective). They’ve faced San Francisco (2nd in defensive efficiency), Carolina (5th), New York (20th), and Los Angeles (10th). All things considered, I will be targeting players like Jameis Winston, Mike Evans, and Chris Godwin, in DFS.

Oakland: 23rd Overall (Pass: 27th, Run 9th)

Philadelphia: 22nd Overall (Pass: 23rd, Run 5th)

Atlanta: 16th Overall (Pass: 21st, Run 7th)

Defenses Struggling Against the Run and Stout Against the Pass

Kansas City: 18th Overall (Pass: 9th, Run 31st)

Green Bay: 7th Overall (Pass: 5th, Run 27th)

Carolina: 5th Overall (Pass: 4th, Run 29th)

Buffalo: 4th Overall (Pass: 3rd, Run 25th)

Defenses to Exploit

Indianapolis: 31st Overall (Pass: 24th, Run: 32nd)

Kansas City will play host to the visiting Indianapolis Colts, in prime time, on Sunday night. Featuring one of the largest spreads of the week (KC -11), it’s no secret that Mahomes and company should have success in this spot. Indy comes in as the 31st ranked defense in DVOA.

Outside of the opening game against the Chargers, in which they gave up 30 points, the Colt’s have faced a fairly easy set of opponent offenses. They’ve faced Tennessee (ranked 19th in offensive efficiency), Atlanta (ranked 21st in offensive efficiency), and Oakland (ranked 23rd in offensive efficiency). Now they’ll head on the road to take on the number one ranked offense in total efficiency.

If the matchup wasn’t bad enough, the Colts will also be dealing with some critical injuries on the defensive side of the ball. Darrius Leonard has been out with a concussion, but you’ll need to monitor his stats as we get closer to Sunday. Malik Hooker will be out with a knee injury. Clayton Geathers is also questionable with a concussion.

Now couple these injuries with how Andy Reid is known to attack defenses and this could spell trouble. Using tight ends and running backs in the middle of field has been Reid’s bread and butter, so if these players were to miss on Sunday, it would be critical. Note that Damien Williams and Tyreke Hill have returned to practice so you’ll need to monitor what this offense will look prior to kickoff, but most of the skills position players will be in play for DFS.

Stay tuned to FanSided Fantasy for all the latest fantasy football and DFS analysis!