Upset Alert: 5 college football teams in danger of losing in Week 6

4. Iowa Hawkeyes

Rank: 14 | Opponent: 19 Michigan Wolverines | Time: Saturday, Oct. 5, Noon ET

Full disclosure, I always struggle with how to peg this type of game when it comes to making potential upset picks. The Iowa Hawkeyes are ranked five spots higher in the latest AP Top 25 poll than the Michigan Wolverines. Thus, it would stand to reason that it would be an upset if Michigan were to pick up the victory, especially against one of the 18 remaining undefeated teams in college football in Iowa.

At the same time, though, this matchup is in Ann Arbor and, as such, Jim Harbaugh’s team is actually 3.5-point favorites in this game, per Bovada. Subsequently, that’s an interesting wrinkle to this matchup. Nonetheless, I’m sticking with my initial logic that a team ranked five spots lower in the poll than their opponent winning is enough to call it an upset, no matter the odds.

To be clear, we have very little reason to be confident in Michigan to this point, so much so that I’m not sure why they’re favored. Beating an awful Rutgers team last week by 52 points doesn’t erase getting torched by Wisconsin and needing overtime to beat Army in Ann Arbor. Shea Patterson and the Wolverines have not progressed on offense and the defense has struggled to replace the players they lost.

However, Iowa has not proven much to this point either, even if they’re 4-0. They’ve beaten Miami-Ohio, Rutgers and Middle Tennessee to this point and needed an all-time boneheaded play from rival Iowa State to beat their rivals in that matchup. And until they prove themselves on the road in a tough environment against a team that, for all their faults, has talent, they’re going to be on upset alert in this type of matchup.