Heisman watch: Jonathan Taylor outpacing recent Heisman-winning backs

Jonathan Taylor is the leading non-quarterback Heisman candidate, so how does Wisconsin’s running back compare to recent backs who won the Heisman?

The Heisman Trophy is a quarterback award, even though it’s not supposed to be, that’s how the voting has transpired over this century. Only three running backs since the turn of the century have won the Heisman while the rest have gone to the quarterback. This list includes USC’s Reggie Bush who forfeited his for off-field reasons and Alabama’s Mark Ingram and Derrick Henry.

Wisconsin’s Jonathan Taylor hopes to join this club. It’s still a Heisman race dominated by quarterbacks with Oklahoma’s Jalen Hurts, Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa, LSU’s Joe Burrow and Ohio State’s Justin Fields the leading candidates. However, Taylor should find himself with an invite to the Downtown Athletic Club for the Heisman ceremony.

But can he win it?

Let’s take a look at how Taylor’s production through his team’s first five games compares to the first five games of our recent running back Heismans. Game log data before 2000 was unavailable on sports reference, but this is a fine sample size nonetheless to make some conclusions.

Taylor passed Melvin Gordon for third on the all-time Badgers rushing list with his 186 rush yards vs. Kent State on Saturday afternoon. As you’ll see below in the statistical comparison through five games, Taylor has had the best start and it’s not even really that close.

Jonathan Taylor vs. recent Heisman-winning backs (through 5 games)

• Jonathan Taylor (2019) -103 attempts, 745 yards, 7.2 ypc, 12 TD, 12 receptions, 114 yards, 4 TD
• Reggie Bush (2005) – 71 attempts, 601 yards, 8.5 ypc, 6 TD, 13 receptions, 191 yards, 2 TD
• Mark Ingram (2009) – 83 attempts, 487 yards, 5.9 ypc, 6 TD, 14 receptions, 147 yards, 3 TD
• Derrick Henry (2015) – 93 attempts, 570 yards, 6.1 ypc, 9 TD, 7 receptions, 51 yards

Bush finished with 1,740 yards on a staggering 8.7 yards per carry with 17 touchdowns. He also had 37 receptions for 478 yards and two touchdowns with a punt return and 493 kick return yards en route to losing the BCS National Championship Game. You can’t win the Heisman in the first five weeks, but you can position yourself to be in the conversation for the second half of the year. That’s really when the Heisman winners make their most definitive Heisman statements. That was true for Bush and it was true for Ingram and Henry.

Ingram finished with 1,658 yards and 17 rushing touchdowns for the eventual national champions.

Henry finished with 2,219 yards and 28 touchdowns, including seven games with at least 140 yards and two touchdowns since the fifth game for the eventual national champions.

While Taylor has the statistical advantage over these recent running back Heisman winners, it’s far from the only thing he needs in his corner to actually win. The most important thing for Taylor’s Heisman resume isn’t running for a thousand yards and touchdowns vs. Kent State in early October. The most important thing for Taylor is that Wisconsin keeps winning.

Bush, Ingram and Henry all played for the national title the year they won the Heisman, with the latter two winning. The Heisman vote is before the national title game, obviously, but team success is a large part of the Heisman Trophy, which should be about individual success, but it’s an award given to the best player on the best team most years.

For every Tim Tebow or Robert Griffin III who wins with three team losses, the list of recent Heisman winners is littered with players from title contenders.

Can Wisconsin be a national title contender?

Possibly.

The Badgers look like the clear-cut top team in the Big Ten West with Iowa as their top competitor, again. The next few weeks will ultimately determine if Taylor is a Heisman contender or if he’ll be the player who gets an invitation despite having no real chance at pulling off the upset.

Wisconsin hosts Michigan State next week, travels to Illinois the week after that before traveling to Columbus for a showdown vs. Ohio State, which could be a Big Ten Championship Game preview. Then, Wisconsin gets an open week to prepare for Iowa coming to Camp Randall in a game that could decide the winner of the West. Taylor and Wisconsin go to Nebraska the week after which could be a sneaky-good game.

Despite Taylor’s sensational five-game stretch to start the season, he has the potential to boost his Heisman stock even more in the coming weeks. Michigan State has a notoriously stingy defense, Ohio State might be the best team in the nation and Iowa is a tough rivalry game with a stout rush defense.

The conference schedule and stretch run is when Bush, Ingram and Henry came alive to emerge from a crowded Heisman pack to standout. Taylor is capable of going on a stretch with 200-yard games and multi-touchdown efforts like that trio did.

What’s different for Taylor’s situation is the quarterbacks around the nation putting up video-game numbers. If Hurts, Tagovailoa, Burrow and Fields don’t slow down, it might not matter how many 200-yard games Taylor has because voters love the quarterbacks.

But through five games, Taylor is doing everything he can possibly do to endear himself to Heisman voters. In a different era, Taylor would be a runaway favorite like Ron Dayne or Ricky Williams in 1999 and 1998, respectively. But it’s a different era and running backs are devalued in the Heisman just as they are devalued in the NFL.

Nevertheless, Taylor is one of the best players in college football, a future difference-maker in the NFL and a lock to be a Heisman finalist. As for winning the Heisman? Wisconsin will need to run the table with Taylor leading the nation in rushing to have a chance to beat Hurts or Tagovailoa.

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