Why James Wiseman might not be worth the No. 1 pick hype

James Wiseman was the nation’s top recruit for 2019 and sits atop many NBA Mock Drafts. A closer look reveals he may not be worth that level of praise.

James Wiseman was the top-ranked recruit for 2019 on most sites and ESPN has pegged him to go No. 1 in the 2020 NBA Draft. Pretty much every informed member of Draft Twitter disagrees with those sentiments and most have him outside the top 10 of their Big Board.

I tweeted out a preliminary top 15 last week and my mentions were ignited with questions (and insults) as to why Wiseman was absent. But this ranking is bred from Wiseman’s tape and statistics, neither of which inspire confidence in his potential as a future No. 1 selection.

At 7-foot-1 with a 7-foot-6 wingspan and skillful coordination/fluidity for a big man, Wiseman’s supporters dream about his ceiling as a scorer. Occasionally, he flashes a potent face-up game and long-range shooting. What curbs those flashes is actual production and abhorrent decision-making. Wiseman has the confidence of an outlier shot maker but lacks the shooting talent to warrant it. That dichotomy generates clips like these:

He aspires to be a modern big with ball-handling, pull-up shooting and floor-spacing talents. He plays like one but it hasn’t been kind to his efficiency and exhibits discouraging self-awareness for a guy slated to go first overall in June.

There has to be some understanding of your own offensive strengths and Wiseman’s habits don’t suggest he knows who he truly is. In 21 EYBL games between April 2018 and July 2018, he averaged 15.2 points on 52.7 percent true shooting. Such low efficiency and raw scoring output is concerning for a player wielding NBA-caliber size and length. Take a look at how his efficiency compares to some other bigs:

Shooting projection is a significant and worthwhile exercise for prospects. It’s fair to look at Wiseman’s indicators and wonder if his confidence is simply ahead of his development as a shooter. Across that same string of EYBL games, he went 56-of-101 (55.4 percent) from the free-throw line and 4-of-27 (14.8 percent) from 3-point range. Neither number suggests a forthcoming evolution.

With the draft still many months away and an entire NCAA season ahead, it’s far too early to completely rule him out as a shooter. Perhaps he undergoes technical alterations to rectify the poor results and improve his stock. At this stage, he projects as an underwhelming shooter who is devoted to firing away.

Much of his allure comes from an inside-out game but only his interior scoring is currently translatable to the NBA. Even then, far too often,  he settles for fade-aways or turns simple post touches into complex face-up possessions. His penchant for functioning like a perimeter player negates his size advantage — an advantage that won’t be anywhere close to as big in the NBA.

If he’s hell-bent on operating as he has at lower levels, he’s not a viable offensive hub. The decision-making and shooting are untenable.

It’s not as though Wiseman is a gifted passer exclusively aiming to refine his scoring prowess. While he’s capable of some interior feeds or hitting cutters from the low block, he’s largely a dreadful facilitator and amassed 14 assists to 44 turnovers during the 2018 EYBL circuit. If the shot selection wasn’t convincing enough as a red flag about his offensive upside, that ratio should be.

He doesn’t seem wired to make the best play, regardless of how it manifests (please do not read this as me calling him selfish). Instead, he has two lines of thought: create for himself or create for others. They do not fuse together to recognize the optimal decision.

That perceived divide conveys an inability to process the game on the fly — an important trait for any player to be consistently effective when tasked with heavy offensive usage. Once he shifts into scoring mode, tunnel vision is the norm.

That clip isn’t entirely egregious. Wiseman is considerably bigger than his defender and quickly flows into a hook shot. But there’s a shooter wide open in the corner. An uncontested 3-pointer is the best available look under those circumstances. Either Wiseman doesn’t see his teammate or considers his attempt to be better. Neither is ideal and reinforces his precarious standing offensively.

One statistic from EYBL that supports Wiseman is 39 blocks in 21 games, implying a reputation as a solid rim-protector. To many, that’s exactly who the 18-year-old is on paper: a future defensive anchor and perennial All-Defensive Team member. That’s just not how I’ve seen it shake out on tape.

Wiseman certainly accumulates a healthy number of blocks, though it seems to originate from poor discipline and features an inability to stay vertical on contests. He’ll pounce on subtle shot fakes or unnecessarily pursue blocks, sometimes to the detriment of his team.

What’s most concerning is how often Wiseman jumps against dudes significantly smaller than him. He has a 7-foot-6 wingspan and 9-foot-3.5 standing reach. Rarely should he leave his feet and yet, it regularly occurs when guards or wings enter the paint. It’s another example of him mitigating his size advantage. Generally, stars maximize their physical tools but Wiseman, on both ends, seems to do the opposite at an alarming rate.

He also has a tendency to contort his body and shy away from contact when affecting shots at the rim. It weakens his base/core strength and allows offensive players to knock him under the hoop or neutralize his hulking presence.

All that being said, he still has the potential to be a serviceable interior defender. He’s a very large human with functional length and his defensive awareness isn’t much of a debilitating factor. His biggest issues — discipline and positioning — can improve with experience and repetition.

But he fails to meet a requisite baseline of intelligence and technique to live up to the All-Defensive billing he’s been awarded. Wiseman should emerge as a formidable back-line enforcer but not the type who truly distinguishes himself from his peers. There are too many holes to project such a development.

The most valuable prospects possess certain outlier skills — ones few others can replicate. Wiseman doesn’t have any. Nothing about his game is elite and that’s a red flag for someone in contention to be selected first overall.

When everything is finalized eight months from now, I imagine he’ll make the top 30 of my Big Board. He runs the floor exceptionally well for a big man, is far from a lost cause defensively and could be an efficient interior scorer/play finisher if his shot selection is ironed out. Yet there exist too many gaps in his game to be considered one of the top prospects in this class. A fine NBA big man he may be, but the hype surrounding him fair outweighs his realistic outcome at the highest level.