Michigan football: Is Jim Harbaugh off the hot seat, for now?

ANN ARBOR, MICHIGAN - OCTOBER 05: Head coach Jim Harbaugh looks on during the third quarter while playing the Iowa Hawkeyes at Michigan Stadium on October 05, 2019 in Ann Arbor, Michigan. Michigan won the game 10-3. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)
ANN ARBOR, MICHIGAN - OCTOBER 05: Head coach Jim Harbaugh looks on during the third quarter while playing the Iowa Hawkeyes at Michigan Stadium on October 05, 2019 in Ann Arbor, Michigan. Michigan won the game 10-3. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)

After getting by the Iowa Hawkeyes at home last week, does that mean Michigan Wolverines head coach Jim Harbaugh is off the hot seat, for now?

It was about as far from pretty as you’d ever hope to see, but the Michigan Wolverines found a way to get it done at home versus the Iowa Hawkeyes last Saturday. On FOX’s Big Noon Kickoff, the then-No. 19 Wolverines eked out a 10-3 victory over then-No. 14 Iowa in the Big House. This was Iowa’s first loss of the year, as Michigan improved to 4-1 (2-1) on the campaign.

With an almost certain Week 7 victory coming for the Wolverines, as they’ll take on the 2-3 (0-2) Illinois Fighting Illini down in Champaign, Michigan should improve to 5-1 (3-1) on the year at the halfway point, creeping ever closer to getting back in the top 10. However, is head coach Jim Harbaugh off the hot seat, at least for the time being?

It’s an interesting question because it’s nearly impossible to fire a head coach if he keeps winning. Michigan has at least shown it can beat up cupcakes and conference pretenders at home this year, so that’ll probably keep the Wolverines in the top 25 for most of the 2019 campaign. However, after the Illinois game, wins will be harder to come by for Harbaugh’s Michigan program.

The Wolverines’ Week 8 game will be on the road against the No. 10 Penn State Nittany Lions. While there is potential Penn State could overlook Iowa on the road this week, we should expect James Franklin to have his program fired up to take on its division rival in Michigan. Barring a lackluster effort in Iowa City, Penn State should be an overwhelming favorite in Week 8’s affair.

As if taking on a talented top-10 caliber team on the road in Penn State is difficult enough, Michigan’s next home opponent on Oct. 26 will present an incredibly difficult challenge. The No. 9 Notre Dame Fighting Irish will be playing in the Big House. They will be coming off a bye after playing the rival USC Trojans at home in Week 8. Look for the Irish to win vs. USC.

It’ll be a close match between Michigan and Notre Dame like it was early last season. However, a well-rested Fighting Irish squad that has already been tested on the road at Georgia should prove victorious on the road against a Michigan team coming off a tough loss at Penn State. Notre Dame will have won three games since falling to Georgia.

So through the October part of their schedule, we would be looking at a Michigan team that has likely gone 5-3 (3-2) with losses to the three best teams it will have played and its best win against Iowa that will probably have three regular-season losses this season (at Michigan, versus Penn State and at the Wisconsin Badgers).

Now if we look even further ahead to Michigan’s November part of the schedule, at best, the Wolverines are going 3-1 in their final four conference games. The Wolverines are better than the Maryland Terrapins and the Indiana Hoosiers. So that’s two more wins to help Harbaugh’s case for sticking around for 2020 and beyond.

With their rivalry game versus the Michigan State Spartans in Ann Arbor this year, let’s say the Wolverines get that one to improve to 8-3 (6-2) on the season. However, barring a monumental upset, the Wolverines aren’t beating the archrival Ohio State Buckeyes in the Big House this season. Ohio State might win the national title and is the favorite to come out of the Big Ten.

So what we’re likely looking at is Michigan will go 8-4 (6-3) with losses to Wisconsin, Penn State, Notre Dame and Ohio State on the season. That’ll probably be good enough for third place in the Big Ten East behind Ohio State and Penn State in what will be Harbaugh’s fifth season leading his alma mater’s football program.

Yes, Michigan will have played a tough schedule this year and having to go up against New Year’s Six contenders in Wisconsin and Notre Dame isn’t the least bit easy. However, this is Michigan’s reality and perhaps its ceiling under Harbaugh. Even in Ryan Day’s first year leading the Buckeyes, Harbaugh will have proven he can’t lead his alma mater to Indianapolis for the conference title.

It will have been five years of hype and nothing but empty 10-win seasons to show for it. In a great year, Harbaugh’s team will be better than Franklin’s in Penn State and Mark Dantonio‘s in Michigan State, but not in the same kitchen of what is cooking in Columbus with the Buckeyes, regardless of who their top chef is: Urban Meyer or Day.

Harbaugh rarely sticks anywhere longer than four years, so his welcome might already be worn out. The problem for Michigan is who would the athletic department get to replace him in Ann Arbor? The university can figure that out if it feels so inclined. Let’s all hope it’s not the next Brady Hoke, a Group of 5 program builder who can’t recruit with the blue-bloods big boys like Michigan.

At the end of the day, Harbaugh’s seat is a tad less hot after beating Iowa at home. It’ll go down to warm after a certain throttling of Lovie Smith‘s Illini down in Champaign. However, if he gets outcoached by Franklin and Notre Dame’s Brian Kelly in consecutive weeks, it’ll be right back to the hottest seat in the Big Ten.

From that point on, if the Wolverines were to fall to either Michigan State or Ohio State in the final four games, that seat of Harbaugh’s might get too hot to handle for Michigan. He’ll jump out of the frying pan and into the fire. Harbaugh needs to win 10 games this regular season if he wants year six in Ann Arbor. He’s a solid coach, but the schedule is too brutal for him to survive in 2019.

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