PGA: Course stats and value plays for the Houston Open
PGA: Course stats and value plays for the Houston Open
“Everything is bigger in Texas”, right? It will certainly apply here this week as the Rees Jones & David Toms designed course will sit at a daunting 7,441 yards totaling out to a par of 72. Another Jones course comes into play in Humble, Texas, as Rees is the younger brother of Robert Trent Jones Jr. and will certainly take nuances from his family’s style of setup and course architecture.
The grass types at GC of Houston have historically done their best to emulate those of Augusta National and have steadily been kept at the lightning-fast pace of 13+ft on the Stimpmeter. They accomplish this by combining Bentgrass overseeded with Poa Trivialis, a hybrid meant to combat cooler climates which may damage the surfaces in the off-season. In any event, these will be firm and fast greens that will require precision speed control. Around the course, grass types will feature Perennial Rye, with the rough cut only to 1.25″. Average green sizes are also much larger than tour average at 7,500 square feet, we will see the larger more receptive surfaces as we witnessed the last weekend.
Driving accuracy at Houston is at an average of 64% coupled with average Greens in Regulation at nearly 70%. These numbers are well above Tour Average sending Rory Mcilroy and his recent comments on ease of courses into a frenzy. So, we have easy to hit Fairways again and easy to hit Greens, where the course defends itself is in its length and speed of the greens. We do have four PAR 5’s to attack this week though, and they will range from 557 to 608 yards. Among those mixed in giving up a ton of birdies at 32% and 21% are two shorter PAR 4’s, HOLE 12 at 338 yards, and HOLE 1 at 397 yards. Although these are easier holes, the majority of approach shots into the greens in Houston will be in the 200+ range.
Simply put, this course will favor the longer hitter in general, if they can bomb it and leave themselves shorter long irons into these greens on the approach, they will find success. Ball striking will take precedence this week, over the last 13 seasons of the winners who have taken the title home have had an average of +1.57 Strokes Gained Ball Striking. This essentially means they are hitting their long irons well and getting them within comfortable proximity to leave themselves two putts or less.
Alongside this we see a Tournament standard almost ubiquitously of 8 water hazards, but 60 bunkers, slightly less than most courses leaving more room for errant shots not being penalized. Below I’ve ranked the Key Stats to prioritize from the field that will more than likely put them into the weekend. I like to take into account the last 24-30 rounds played to factor in recent form as well in the areas that matter for this particular course. Ready? Grip it and Rip it:
KEY STATS
- SG OTT and Driving Distance
- SG BALL STRIKING
- SG APPROACH
- SG PAR 5 (Or PAR 5 EFFICIENCY)
- SG PROXIMITY 200+ YARDS
- SG PROXIMITY 150-175 YARDS
- SG AROUND THE GREEN
- SG PUTTING
As usual, you can find these statistics on the PGA and KFT Tour websites, or a very valuable outlet such as FantasyNational.com, although they will not factor in KFT events. We have a very weakened field aside from a few key players. This almost similar to a KFT event and Ian Poulter isn’t here to defend his “Big Win” or the years “Fifth Major” as Connor Sketches jokes.