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NFL DFS game by game breakdown: Week 6

By Joe Metz

INDIANAPOLIS, IN - SEPTEMBER 22: Atlanta Falcons tight end Austin Hooper (81) celebrates a 2 yard touchdown catch during the NFL game between the Atlanta Falcons and the Indianapolis Colts on September 22, 2019 at Lucas Oil Stadium, in Indianapolis, IN. (Photo by Zach Bolinger/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
INDIANAPOLIS, IN - SEPTEMBER 22: Atlanta Falcons tight end Austin Hooper (81) celebrates a 2 yard touchdown catch during the NFL game between the Atlanta Falcons and the Indianapolis Colts on September 22, 2019 at Lucas Oil Stadium, in Indianapolis, IN. (Photo by Zach Bolinger/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /
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HOUSTON, TX – OCTOBER 06: Deshaun Watson #4 of the Houston Texans scrambles under pressure by Desmond Trufant #21 of the Atlanta Falcons in the first half at NRG Stadium on October 6, 2019 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images) /

NFL DFS: Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs

PREVIEW

Two high-powered offenses collide as the Texans head to Kansas City fresh off of a 53-point showing against the Falcons. If they want to keep pace with the Chiefs, they’ll need to be on their A-game once again as Vegas pegged this game with a 56.0 o/u and a rather tight 5-point spread. The Chiefs defense ranks in the bottom half of the league in fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks (20.5), running back (20.0), wide receiver (25.8) and tight ends (8.6), making this an exploitable matchup from all aspects of the offense.

The Chiefs will look to bounce back after dropping a snooze-fest to the Colts last week and while the Texans have been a rather stout defense, only one member of their secondary (Justin Reid) has a PFF grade over 61. With the rash of injuries throughout their receiving core, this could potentially open up some value options on the main slate.

CASH PLAYS

DeShaun Watson (QB – HOU): He showed his ceiling last week with a 426-yard and 4-touchdown performance against the Falcons and should be in for another solid outing in a game with the highest projected o/u (56.0) on the slate and against a defense that failed to record a single sack last week.

Patrick Mahomes (QB – KC): Much like Watson, Mahomes doesn’t need much convincing to tell you he’s a cash play week in and week out. The only question mark this week is how effective he’ll be as he nurses his ankle. Coach Andy Reid expects him to be “ok”, making him a solid play once again as he welcomes his WR1 back.

DeAndre Hopkins (WR – HOU): It was Will Fuller week last week, but Hopkins is still going to command the overwhelming share of the targets (28%) and, much like Fuller, has far more air yards (526) than receiving yards (347). This should be a sign of progression on the horizon with an exploitable matchup against Bashaud Breeland on tap (PFF grade of 51.1).

Travis Kelce (TE – KC): He continues to be the safety blanket for Mahomes and leads the team with a 23.08% target share. The return of Tyreek Hill should force the secondary to divert some of their attention, opening up the field for Kelce.

GPP PLAYS

Tyreek Hill (WR – KC): It’s hard to endorse him in cash on FanDuel, but DraftKings his price tag is cheap enough to warrant consideration. He should be able to burn past Johnathan Joseph and a secondary that’s allowed the 9th most fantasy points per game to opposing wideouts (26.6).

Mecole Hardman (WR – KC): Should see an increase in target share if Watkins sits, but it’s tough to gauge what his level of involvement on the outside will be with the expected return of Tyreek Hill. He’s cemented himself as the WR3 in KC, but is too hard to trust in cash.

Will Fuller (WR – HOU): He went nuclear for 14-217-3 in week 4 and while we shouldn’t expect a repeat, he leads the team in air yards (542) and aDOT (13.9), which should come in handy against a leaky secondary prone to big plays.

Carlos Hyde / Duke Johnson (RB – HOU): These two are rather game script dependent. If the Texans keep it close, Hyde could see another 15+ touches against a defense that ranks in the bottom third of the league against RBs (20.4 fantasy points per game). If they fall behind, we could see a negative script for Duke Johnson, giving him the opportunity to see increased snaps and targets out of the backfield at a dirt-cheap price tag.