The Notre Dame Fighting Irish’s College Football Playoff dreams are holding on by a thread. Will beating a bad USC Trojans do anything to help their cause?
At 4-1, you’d think it might be too early in the season to cross a team off from making the College Football Playoff. Of course, it really matters what team you’re talking about. If it’s a historical bottom-feeder, you better believe we’re going to pick them to fade in the coming weeks. But what about a top-10 team in the country like the Notre Dame Fighting Irish?
The Golden Domers find themselves at 4-1 on the year. Although they have a win against a top-25 team in the Virginia Cavaliers, their most notable game this season was a narrow defeat on the road against the Georgia Bulldogs back in late September. Losing to the Dawgs Between the Hedges by six points is about as good as you’d hope to do against Kirby Smart‘s bunch anyway.
Unfortunately, that loss in Athens could end up being the reason the Irish aren’t back in the College Football Playoff in 2019 after making it for the first time in 2018. The reason for this is that the Irish don’t play in a conference as a national independent and do not have the luxury of the crucial 13th data point of a conference championship to look forward to. It could prove costly.
So while nobody doubts that the Irish are New Year’s Six-caliber this season, they may not have enough of a runway to get into the Playoff as a one-loss, non-conference champion as an at-large team. They were perfect last regular season but now they are not. Will a win over a bad USC Trojans team do anything to help their cause and make the Playoff for the second straight season?
It’ll help them out a bit for a few reasons. The first reason beating USC will be significant for Notre Dame is this will be an opportunity for the Irish to put a whooping on a historic rival. Yes, it’ll be in South Bend, but it’s a huge rivalry game being played at Notre Dame Stadium in primetime. An absolute evisceration of USC could lead to Trojans’ head coach Clay Helton getting fired.
A second reason beating USC will help out Notre Dame is that the wheels haven’t yet completely fallen off at USC under Helton. The Trojans are 3-2 (2-1) with wins over Fresno State, Stanford Cardinal and a previously unbeaten Utah.
However, the Trojans lost on the road to BYU in overtime and last week at Washington. Notre Dame is fortunate that USC is still in a position where the Trojans can still win the Pac-12 South and get to a conference championship. The Trojans might stink, but they could also smell them some roses in Pasadena on New Year’s Day 2020.
The last reason beating USC can still help Notre Dame’s fleeting Playoff chances is pretty simple really: A win is a win. The Irish only have seven more chances to get a W before the College Football Playoff Selection Committee and decides everyone’s fates.
The truth is that Notre Dame will eventually need to get over itself and join a Power 5 conference at some point. However, the Irish can still get in as a one-loss, at-large, non-champion because both the ACC and the Pac-12 are so incredibly weak. Is there any team you really love in the Pac-12? I didn’t think so. What happens if Clemson loses a game? The ACC will get left out.
Notre Dame will need the SEC to somewhat cannibalize itself so that Power 5 conference won’t end up getting two teams in. At this time, it feels like the Big Ten, the Big 12 and the SEC Champions are getting into the final four. The fourth spot is up for debate. If Notre Dame keeps winning and somebody like Clemson blows it, the Irish have a semi-realistic shot at getting in.
As for USC, the Trojans have no shot at the Playoff. However, they can not only get to the Rose Bowl but can bring to end any hopes of the Irish making it back to the Playoff. Who knows? Maybe a road victory over the Irish is exactly what Helton needs to get his team back on track. It won’t, but here’s to wishful thinking, Trojan Family! Look for the Irish to roll big time on Saturday night.
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