NBA Season Preview 2019-20: 10 players most likely to be first-time All-Stars

9. Jayson Tatum

Why he’ll make it:

Replacing Kyrie Irving with Kemba Walker doesn’t exactly open up a ton of scoring opportunities, but Jayson Tatum is now the undisputed No. 2 option on offense for the Boston Celtics. Al Horford and Marcus Morris are gone, which will only give him more freedom to seize that role with authority, rather than by default like last season.

Despite posting career highs in multiple categories, Tatum’s 15.7 points and 6.0 rebounds per game were more of an incremental step forward than the leap most people were projecting. That failure to meet expectations, along with Kyrie’s departure, only increases the likelihood this 21-year-old meets those lofty expectations this time around.

Why he won’t make it:

Unless the Celtics are able to successfully ride that underdog mentality to a top-four spot in the Eastern Conference, they won’t warrant more than one All-Star. Kemba is a more agreeable point guard presence for the youngsters than Kyrie was, but he’s still going to get his shots, his buckets and, most likely, his All-Star berth as the leading scorer on a playoff team.

That means it’d take an exceptional leap from Tatum in Year 3 to warrant a second All-Star, even with several spots likely to open up. Will he have both the individual numbers and team success to make the All-Star jump so many were expecting last year?