NBA Season Preview 2019-20: The 5 biggest questions for the Philadelphia 76ers
In preparation for the upcoming 2019-20 NBA season, it’s time to take a look at five critical questions for the Philadelphia 76ers this year.
1. How many 3-pointers does Ben Simmons make this season?
Greater than zero but fewer than 20 — so, let’s split the difference and say 10?
Over his first two seasons, Simmons has attempted 17 combined 3-pointers. Although he’s looked more confident in his shooting stroke during some oft-discussed summer workout videos, he wouldn’t be the first player to go from drilling 3s during the offseason to bricking jumpers once he’s facing real NBA competition.
Simmons has repeatedly insisted that he’ll eventually add a 3-pointer to his arsenal, but he has also stressed that it’s going to take time. He isn’t going to come into the 2019-20 season and begin jacking up 3s like he’s Stephen Curry, nor should he.
With Joel Embiid, Tobias Harris, Josh Richardson and Al Horford flanking Simmons in the starting lineup, the Sixers shouldn’t have to settle for low-percentage shots often. If Simmons takes after Russell Westbrook and starts pulling up for early-shot-clock 3s in transition, Sixers fans will rue the day they ever began to clamor for him to bomb away from deep.
Simmons eventually will need to add the threat of a 3-ball, or opponents will continue to sag off him and clog the space Embiid has to operate in the paint. But in the immediate future, it’s far more important for Simmons to continue improving his free-throw percentage than it is for him to knock down the occasional triple.
2. How much intensity do the 76ers need to bring to the regular season?
Enough to secure a top-two seed, but they shouldn’t necessarily go all-out to secure home-court advantage throughout the playoffs.
Getting Joel Embiid to the playoffs healthy should be the Sixers’ No. 1 priority this season. A fluky orbital bone fracture caused him to miss Game 1 against the Miami Heat two years ago, while a knee injury and a pair of illnesses (including a bout with, uh, gastrointestinal distress) hobbled him throughout this past year’s playoffs.
The Sixers signed Al Horford to a four-year, $109 million contract in part to give themselves an insurance policy at center in case disaster does strike with Embiid again. But Horford and third-string center Kyle O’Quinn can also help reduce Embiid’s workload throughout the regular season, keeping him fresh for mid-April and beyond.
Since the Sixers will enter the 2019-20 campaign with legitimate NBA Finals aspirations, they shouldn’t overburden their key rotation members during the slog of the 82-game season. This is the first time in head coach Brett Brown’s tenure that they have the requisite depth to keep their starters well-rested, and he should take advantage accordingly.
The Sixers don’t necessarily need to load-manage Embiid or their other starters to the extent that the Toronto Raptors did with Kawhi Leonard this past season, but Embiid, in particular, shouldn’t be playing more than 30-32 minutes per game until the playoffs. Keeping the other starters’ minutes in the low 30s would be prudent as well, even if it costs the Sixers a few winnable games throughout the year.
3. Joel Embiid loves his Shirley Temples. What should be the signature cocktail for Tobias Harris?
This feels like a trick question.
According to Johan Buva of The Athletic, Harris “almost never drinks.” In fact, one longtime friend of Harris’ once told Slam‘s Yaron Weitzman that Harris “probably drank Shirley Temples” to celebrate his 21st birthday.
Since Embiid has the market cornered on Shirley Temples in the Sixers locker room, let’s give a nod to Harris’ New York upbringing and say a Long Island Iced Tea. Harris continues to add skills to his bag each offseason, which is akin to how many different types of alcohol go into a Long Island Iced Tea.
Sixers fans can only hope he doesn’t give the team a $180 million hangover.
4. Who do the 76ers miss more this season — Jimmy Butler or J.J. Redick?
This is a legitimately tricky question. Bravo!
Jimmy Butler is vastly superior to J.J. Redick on paper, but Redick’s elite long-range stroke was crucial for the shooting-starved Sixers. Since Philly shipped out Robert Covington to acquire Butler and rookie Redick-in-training Landry Shamet to acquire Harris, Redick became the lone plus 3-point shooter in the starting five by the end of the season.
Brown’s offense relied on a steady diet of dribble hand-offs between Embiid and Redick, and it’s unclear whether Josh Richardson can fill that same role this season. The Sixers can only hope Harris finds his 3-point range again after shooting 32.6 percent from deep in 27 regular-season appearances with Philly and 34.9 percent during the playoffs.
Butler was a far more reluctant shooter and appeared to wax and wane with his effort throughout the regular season, but the playoffs emphasized his importance to the team. When Simmons became somewhat of an afterthought in the second-round series against the Toronto Raptors, Butler began operating more on the ball as a much-needed pick-and-roll facilitator.
On defense, it’s a no-contest. Butler remains one of the league’s best wing defenders, while Redick is a liability who opponents actively target on that end of the floor. Even if Richardson can’t replicate Redick’s impact offensively, the upgrade on defense could make up for the difference.
Replacing Butler’s two-way impact, meanwhile, will be a total team effort. That makes him the bigger loss of the two, although the Sixers should miss Redick as well.
5. Why is everyone still sleeping on Josh Richardson?
Because he played in Miami after everyone stopped paying attention to the Heat?
Fantasy basketball managers and hardcore NBA fans may be the only non-Heat devotees who know how good Richardson is. He’s one of the rare players who can average at least one 3-pointer, one steal and one block per game, which makes him worth his weight in fantasy basketball gold.
Richardson was miscast as the Heat’s No. 1 scoring option this past season by default. But in a No. 3 or No. 4 role — which he’ll slide into in Philly — he should be a dynamic two-way co-star next to Embiid, Simmons, Horford and Harris.
Richardson drilled 38.5 percent of his catch-and-shoot 3-point attempts last season compared to only 28.8 percent of his pull-ups. Routinely asking him to create off the dribble won’t produce efficient offense, but the Sixers should allow him to play more to his strengths on offense since he’ll be in a lower-usage role.
Richardson is also a smothering defender, having ranked 17th in ESPN’s Defensive Real Plus-Minus last season. As the shortest member of the Sixers’ starting lineup at 6-foot-6 (!), he’ll likely be tasked with locking down opposing point guards, many of whom he’ll have a distinct size advantage against.
These next few weeks may be your last chance to buy low on Richardson before everyone realizes he belongs in the conversation of the NBA’s top up-and-coming two-way wings.
Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com or Basketball-Reference. All salary information via Early Bird Rights.