Chiefs need to buck analytics and run the football

Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes seemingly want to pass the ball on every play. But the Kansas City Chiefs’ Super Bowl chances may hinge on their ability to run instead.

Here are some startling statistics:

The Kansas City Chiefs have run the football on only 34 percent of their plays.

They are averaging only 4.0 yards per carry.

Their time of possession is 26:41, but lost the TOP battle by 19:36 against the Texans last week. Kansas City won the battle in weeks one and two, but “In Week 5, the Colts held a 37:15-22:45 edge. The Texans commanded the clock in Week 6 with a mind-blowing 39:48-20:12 advantage.”

The team’s leading rusher has averaged eight carries and 44 yards per game.

The Chiefs have rushed the ball 25 times for less than 90 yards over the past two games.

To put it mildly, Kansas City’s run game has been essentially non-existent through the first third of the season. And Andy Reid has acknowledged this as recently as Tuesday when he said that, “Our time of possession is way out of whack. So, when given opportunities to stay on the field, we’ve got to make sure we do that offensively and get off the field defensively.”

There are several reasons for this development. First, Reid prefers to pass the football. This has been true for the entirety of his career, and now that he has the best quarterback he has ever coached, it has ramped up his inherent desire to throw downfield. Second, Patrick Mahomes is a generational talent. Third, the strength of the Chiefs’ skill players exists in its pass catchers and ability to make plays in open space. And fourth, it is easier (theoretically) to cover for mediocre offensive line play by passing the ball than in trying to run it.

Nonetheless, the Chiefs must approach the rest of the season differently if they hope to get back on track in their quest for a Super Bowl Championship. The offense is too one-dimensional and even when the passing game has been successful, it is at the expense of time on the field. That time is critical to getting into an offensive rhythm, and also to giving the defense time to recover from what have been long, exhausting, run-heavy offensive possessions. It is unreasonable to expect the run defense to get better when they’re on the field for eight minutes, resting for three minutes, and then back on the field for another seven-minute drive.

Reid must forget what he knows about Patrick Mahomes’ arm. Reid must forget what he knows about the analytics of passing versus running. And Reid must forget about scoring and statistics. Most fans would agree that watching shootouts is more fun than watching the ground-and-pound game, but it is not an effective strategy for winning a Super Bowl; this is especially true when your defense can’t stop the run. Other teams (see Colts, Texans) are not trying to outscore the Chiefs any longer. They’re simply limiting the offensive opportunities afforded to Reid, Mahomes and Co. The Patriots have already proven that a superior run game will crush a high-flying offense when it matters the most.

Kansas City can still go after a Super Bowl title this year. But they’re not going to do it by simply out-racing/pacing other teams. They must have balance. For the sake of the play calling and the sake of the defense, Reid must run the ball.