College football quarterback film study: Tua, Joe Burrow on fire; Is Trevor Lawrence back?

Breaking down the top college football quarterbacks with film study to look at the Week 7 performances from Tua Tagovailoa, Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence and more.

Several of the top quarterbacks from around the country returned from their bye week, giving us nearly a full slate to evaluate. Most of the big names gave us great performances to break down. But Jake Fromm and Jalen Hurts weren’t able to keep up.

Wins and losses aren’t everything on Saturday but isolating individual play helps give us the context we need. Franchises are quarterback-driven, and thus always keeping an eye out for their next star.

We took an in-depth look at Trevor Lawrence, Tua Tagovailoa, Jalen Hurts, Jake Fromm, Joe Burrow, Jacob Eason and Justin Herbert this week. Both Justin Fields and Jordan Love were on bye weeks. Fringe and future prospects Sam Ehlinger, Kellen Mond, Shea Patterson and Steven Montez aren’t featured this week but we’re keeping an eye on their performance as well.

Trevor Lawrence, Clemson

It’s taken half the season to finally see more of the dominant traits and superb accuracy from Trevor Lawrence, but it was worth the wait. Lawrence delivered a near-flawless performance against Florida State, dominating short and intermediate throws. His lone mistake was an interception along the sideline, an attempt that was more of a throwaway that required an impressive effort from the defender than it was a reckless decision.

His unevenness entering this game was notable. Compared to 2018, his accuracy was down six percent on throws from 0-10 yards, 14 percent lower on attempts 11-19 yards, 10 percent lower further than 20 yards, and 11 percent down overall. Most disturbing is his interception rate has tripled as well.

This one game against as middling pass defense doesn’t absolve all of that but it’s a reminder of how good Lawrence can be. He missed seven of 20 passes beyond the line of scrimmage, which isn’t elite, but he was hitting the big throws consistently. The second quarter was a beat down with his timing and arm strength continuing to spark first downs and scoring opportunities.

It’ll be fascinating to see if Lawrence and Clemson now heat up and tear through opponents. It’s normal for them to start slow and hit their stride midway through. If this is the launching point for Lawrence, he’ll elevate back to potential legend status quickly.

Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama

It’s quite the statement about how well Tua Tagovailoa has played this season when I’m pointing out his nine inaccurate passes on 24 attempts past the line of scrimmage were his most misses this season. Most quarterbacks would love to boast the same thing since that’s a modest amount against a top-25 team on the road.

And yet, Tagovailoa was still impressive against the Aggies despite logging his first interceptable pass on the year and missing two semi-open deep balls. Several times he dealt with direct pressure by stepping up into the pocket and finding lanes to extend plays. As we’ve seen with recent draft picks in the NFL, drifting backward or into blockers isn’t the right reaction we want to see.

Instead, Tagovailoa plays with grace against pressure and maintains perfect ball placement. Two of these throws led to touchdowns as he hit his target in stride.

It wasn’t a flawless game though. His interception came against a two-high look in the red zone and it appeared to be the same safety rotation Clemson tricked him on in the national title game. Either his tendency to go for the home run ball overtook his decision-making there or he simply struggled to read it.

His third down and medium play appeared mediocre statistically, including the interception but at least two touchdowns came in these situations.

Overall, Tua is still the clear top quarterback for the 2020 class. He’s charting well for the season and the eye test is great. There’s just a little bit to clean up from his performance.

Joe Burrow, LSU

If we’re just looking at who has been the best quarterback in the country this year, it’s been Joe Burrow of LSU. Tua is close, but Burrow’s destroyed lower competition at an even higher rate. If the season were to end today, Burrow’s charted accuracy would be nearly five percent higher than anyone else’s I’ve collected in seven draft classes.

That’s insanely good even if it’s unsustainable. Last week I declared Burrow is my No. 2 quarterback for the 2020 class, and his game against Florida only reinforced that decision to project him as a top-five pick. He’s flourishing along with his athletic receivers in this system and playing with incredible confidence.

His performance against Florida wasn’t nearly as special as his Texas breakout but it was consistent and featured a little bit of everything he has to offer inside and outside of the pocket. His timing on intermediate man routes and ability to pick apart zone looks were only seen a few times but showed the precision and vision I needed to see.

His best throw was a rollout to the right within Florida’s 10-yard line. He veered right to avoid pressure and delivered a dart right inside the pylon for a touchdown. He’s not often under duress but improvised and kept his eyes up well to still hit a tight passing window.

While I still want to see Burrow face a lockdown secondary and excel against continued pressure, he’s passing all of the tests thus far. He should be the No. 2 pick in any mock draft featuring two quarterback-needy teams with the top-two selections until he shows he’s not able to excel in those situations.

Jalen Hurts, Oklahoma

The more we’re seeing Jalen Hurts at Oklahoma, the more of a wild side is emerging. Lincoln Riley wanted Hurts to become more aggressive but it’s clear right now Hurts will press under pressure and rush his process. That’s not to say he doesn’t hit tight windows or isn’t a playmaker, but he’s behind Tua and Burrow in this area.

The Texas game wasn’t his finest performance. His interception in the red zone came on an escape where he rolled right, then retreated with bodies all around him. He heaved a floater up and it was picked off on third down.

This doesn’t mean Hurts stinks but he has panicked the last few weeks when pressured. It’s something to watch for as he gets outside of the pocket. Though he has charted very well on rollouts, his unplanned extended plays aren’t going nearly as smoothly.

His passing on third down was rough as well, throwing only three accurate balls on eight attempts. This was a moment of adversity for Hurts and the results were mixed. His legs are extremely helpful, but his accuracy dodged him when he needed it most.

It’s important he stays calm, resets his feet and follows through with proper footwork on his passes. He doesn’t have the natural velocity or precision his predecessors had, so his mechanics must be tight. I’ll be watching for that the rest of this season.

Jake Fromm, Georgia

What a disastrous loss for Georgia and Jake Fromm. Though this wasn’t all on Fromm, his limitations and their lack of trust in him were on full display as the Gamecocks maintained a lead in the second half. I found myself wondering why the Bulldogs opted to keep Fromm over Justin Fields, but that’s a conversation for another day.

Fromm had some very good throws that advanced the chains and led to scoring opportunities. He continued to pick apart South Carolina on throws from the pocket from 0-19 yards, sans throws short to the right. Taking out his short right throws, he was accurate on 24 of 26 passes in the pocket from 11-19 yards.

Those are fantastic results for him. But his struggles moving outside of structure and hitting more advanced throws is harmful to his NFL value. The two interceptions he was responsible for zapped important drives prematurely, and he missed seven of eight deep throws to compound his problematic skill set.

His lack of impact plays and untimely breakdowns outside of the pocket certainly cap his value. I can’t imagine a team takes him Round 1 after seeing similarly docile quarterbacks falter in the NFL, and his ceiling appears topped as an average option.

Justin Herbert, Oregon

It was a good time for Justin Herbert to have his best game of the year despite mediocre raw stats. He showed out Friday night against Colorado, having the most success pushing the ball downfield as he’s seen all year. Only four of his 13 passes past 10 yards were inaccurate.

That’s more of the playmaker we saw in 2017 and less of the hobbled, unconfident version of Herbert that existed in 2018. He dealt with pressure so much more effectively than usual that I had flashbacks to his limited sample as a sophomore that had scouts buzzing.

He even lost two huge throws to drops, including one beautiful touchdown at the back of the end zone. It’s the type of game that ropes me back into Herbert, believing he’ll be worth the top-10 pick if he ends up in the right situation despite his uneven nature. His best is worth talking about right in the conversation with Tua and Burrow as a potential franchise superstar.

He left two throws out on the field he surely wanted, including a missed corner route he rushed on third down early in the second quarter. It’s okay, he can now use that as a source of improvement. But I mention it to highlight the difference in negative notes in this performance compared to weeks prior, where he was an irrelevant factor for large stretches of entire games.

Jacob Eason, Washington

The weekly game plans Washington has for Jacob Eason truly baffle me. Both his games against Stanford and Arizona featured a heavy dosage of deep passes beyond 20 yards, while his other performances had this gunslinger focusing on short strikes. The Washington offense has been more at-home allowing Eason to take deep drops and space out the defense.

His game against Arizona had terrific deep shots, including five accurate passes on only seven attempts. He hit several targets in stride but wasn’t rewarded with a score due to their lack of separation. That’s not Eason’s fault.

He did have several ugly misses though. His intermediate throws lacked touch, which is a trend in his play. Eason’s far from a pure brute thrower but has some Cardale Jones to his game and the NFL has evolved away from less efficient and scattershot passers.

His value right now lies on feasting on short passes with his strong arm and taking the occasional deep shot. His intermediate accuracy has a small sample but to this point has been decent. I’m treating him like a developmental prospect at this point.

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